The WASDE was very bearish for soybeans and neutral to mildly bearish for corn and wheat.  Soybean yields came in at 51.6 bpa and this resulted in a 785mm bushel new crop carryout.  That is an 18.44 stocks/use ratio and we have not seen that big of a number since 2006-2007 when soybeans were trading in the $6 and $7 range.

The Sunday open could get ugly for soybeans.  The WASDE was released after the Asian and European close.  I do not like Friday WASDE reports for this reason.  It has the potential to make the Sunday night open a mess.  If the markets continue to sell off Sunday night and into Monday, we see support for Nov Soybeans at $8.30, Dec Corn $3.65, and Sept Chi Wheat $5.35.

Below are my updated Supply and Demand tables for Corn and Soybeans.  The middle columns in yellow reflect the USDA report today.  Then we make assumptions if the yields are a little higher and a little lower.  Corn looks OK.  Soybeans look like the new wheat!

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

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