Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 174

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New Podcast!

We are back from Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL!  Thanks for everyone who came by booth 1061 and said hello.  We had a lot of Turner’s Take Podcast listeners come by.  That was great and made the trip worth it.  I tried to do a podcast from our booth but the sound quality was awful.  Oh well.

In our podcast today we go over what we heard at Commodity Classic, the US/China trade deal, and our outlook on grains, livestock, and energy.  Make sure you check out our latest episode of Turner’s Take Podcast!

GRAINS

All grain traders and producers have one eye on the US/China trade talks. There is an expectation of a meeting between Trump and Xi later this month in Florida.  This could be where the two sides come to a historic trade agreement.  While the details are still being worked out, it is expected China will commit to buying $50 billion worth of US products a year.  Right now they buy about $20 billion.  The number is so big I think the market doesn’t believe it.

China does buy $50 billion worth of ag goods a year but not exclusively from the US.  If this deal goes through then the US will be China’s #1 supplies for their ag needs.  World stocks will most likely stay the same, so while the deal is supportive of US prices, it is not uber bullish.  China will buy grain from the US but if prices in the US get too high the rest of the world will buy their ag products elsewhere.

The corn market seems to have the most bullish potential heading into 2019.  Old crop stocks at 1.7 or 1.8 billion is adequate.  New crop acres at 92mm seems high based on the conversations we’ve had with farmers around the country.  We also think this year is primed for a sub-par yield due all the field work that did not get done in the fall and the potential for a late spring planting window.

I like being long the old crop from a speculative play and for farmers I like being short the $4.00 Dec Corn straddles.  There will be a time for farmers to make new crop sales but I don’t think now is the time to do it.  The chart below is for continuous corn.  A break above $3.80 could send May corn to $3.88.  There should be a lot of support at the $3.66 level as we head into planting.

CONTINUOUS CORN

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

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Twitter: @Turners_T...