Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 297

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NEW PODCAST

In this week's podcast we start off with the Fed announcement and why we think the US Dollar Index will strengthen and why the CAD and EU will weaken.  We then move onto February Natural Gas and why you should not hold positions into Last Trading Day (LTD).  We end the podcast with our thought on the grain and oilseed markets and why our favorite picks for the spring and summer is corn and soybean oil.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast!

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NATURAL GAS

If you have an account with me I may have called, emailed our texted you when a position is a week away from First Notice Day (FND) or Last Trading Day (LTD).  We always want traders to get out of a market either the day before FND for grains or LTD for energy.  Only commercial traders and accounts involved in the delivery process should be involved in the markets on last trading day.  The markets get thin, it is hard to get in an out, and if you have too many specs on one side of the market you can get some unbelievable price action.

February Natural Gas is a perfect example.  We had a $3.00 trading range in Feb while March was only up $0.30 cents.  If I had to guess, someone was assigned a lot of short positions last night (after Feb option expiration) and they had to buy them all back today.  A $3 move in NG is $30,000 per contract.  Moral of the story - don't carry positions into delivery periods or into Last Trading Day.

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Feb Natural Gas - Last Trading Day

GRAINS

Wheat rallied hard as Russia escalated tensions with Ukraine last week.  The past two day wheat prices have come down as the two nations, NATO, and the US are in diplomatic talks.  If talks break down wheat can go right back to where we were in the beginning of the week.  Below is the US Drought Monitor.  Much of the HRW wheat crop area is dry.