Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 205

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The CBOT lacks direction as markets continue to trade in range.  The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next week.  The US/China trade talks seem to be leading to a “Phase One” agreement in time for the Nov 15 APEC meeting in Chile.  In this podcast we go over the macro landscape, the range bound nature of the ag markets, and what to look for as we head into the Nov 8 WASDE and Nov 15-16 APEC meeting in Chile.

We have been buyers of the S&P during the rally but now we are concerned a triple top is in play if we don’t break out higher.  We want to get out of our longs and see what happens over the next few weeks.  Aggressive traders may want to look into short positions.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!

Continuous Emini S&P 500

Grains & Oilseeds

Exports are weak while many analysts think the crop is getting smaller.  A US/China partial trade deal could boost Chinese ag purchases to $20 billion, which is about where we were before the trade war started. Some analysts think the USDA does not have to make changes to production in the Nov WASDE and could wait until January!  This is all keeping the CBOT range bound. I think the risk is to the downside if the WASDE disappoints and the US/China can’t reach an agreement by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Chile on Nov 15-16.  Between now and Nov 8 I like buying the dips and selling the rallies. As we get closer to the WASDE I think it makes sense to buy some short dated puts to hedge any long futures or cash positions.

Continuous Corn

Continuous Soybeans

Livestock

Cattle has reached our first targets. Dec LC is 115, Feb LC is 120, and March FC is 140.  I still like cattle but if you are still long I would take some profit and then look to get back in on a sell off.  Hogs are in a wide range.  When traders want to focus on domestic supplies then the market will be trending bearish.  When traders want to focus on potential Chinese demand due to ASF then we are going higher.  The swings are big but there is opportunity in hogs for those that want to play the game.

Dec LC

Feb Hogs

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

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