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I read a very interesting article today from Karen Braun @kannbwx on Reuters. 

Corn Market At Risk of Misunderstanding USDA’s Condition Scores on Monday

The USDA only reports on crops that have emerged.  Much of the corn that has emerged was planted early and in good conditions.  The trade (including myself) could be very disappointed with crop ratings on Monday, June 10th.

Then on Tuesday we will get the WASDE.  I don’t think the USDA touches yield or acres yet. If they do it more likely they bring down acres a bit.  I think it is more likely they decrease demand due to large South American stocks and our slow pace of exports.  We could actually see the supply and demand balance sheet go higher.  Sounds crazy but you have to understand how the USDA comes up with these reports. It is not real time.

I think corn could have  a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday.  After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.

Be careful next week. For all you traders who are long out there, make sure you have some protection.  If you want to get long maybe wait until Wednesday.  Farmers who want to make sales ahead of all of this might want to pull the trigger by the close tomorrow or wait a couple of weeks. 

I still like the short dated options but maybe we look at those on Wednesday instead of Monday.  If you want to do something bullish before the reports I prefer the Dec Corn short dated bull call spreads September.  The $4.50/$5.00 are about 12 cents.  That is something you can hold through these reports.  I like the sept calls on dec futures because the expiration is Aug 23.  Corn will be pollinating late this year.  Mid July through early Aug could be critical.

 

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