Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 287

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New Podcast

This week we go over the latest US jobs report, the sort term debt ceiling deal, and the inflation in energy and food prices.  We talk about our price ranges for crude oil and natural gas and why we see elevated prices at least until spring 2022. We also go into the record prices in oats, the impact soybean oil will have on soybeans and meal, and what a fertilizer shortage could mean for 2022 new crop acres.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

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Macro Markets

Stocks are on the rebound and interest rates are lower after the US Senate agreed on a temporary increase to the debt ceiling.  This is a short term solution that will come up again in December.  The September Employment Report was a big miss to the downside. Economists were looking for about 500K jobs and the number was just under 200K.  Unemployment is now at 4.8% which was better than expected, but the decrease was largely due to people no longer looking for work. In the eye's of the US government, if you are not looking for work then you are not unemployed.  The August report was revised to show an increase of jobs by over 100K.

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Energy

I've been talking a lot about Natural Gas lately but lets not forget about Crude Oil.  Nov Crude hit $80 early today and we haven't traded this high in years.  Some analyst are calling for a $90 target.  $65 should be very strong support. If we are in an energy crunch and economic growth stays strong, then the new range for crude could be $65 to $90.

In the past it was in OPEC's best interest to start pumping more oil when it got to these prices to A) capture additional market share and B) discourage increased production from high cost producers.