Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 280

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New Podcast

This week we go over the Fed minutes, crude oil, natural gas, and the grain and oilseed markets.  We like crude oil but it is due for a correction. Natural Gas is up about 50% year over year and we talk about why that trend is likely to continue.  Finally we talk about the grain and oilseed markets and why we like soybeans and soybean oil more than corn.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

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Fed Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes for were released today for the June meeting.  While the committee talked about tapering and higher rates, they want to see a full recovery post-COVID first.  Rate hikes and tightening are a long way off in 2023.  The Fed did acknowledge inflation concerns but said most of the price increases were transitory, which means short term in nature due to unique market supply and demand events.

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Energy

I still like Crude Oil but we are due for a correction.  The delta variant could cause some shutdowns overseas and that would put a short term hit on the crude market.  Longer term I still like energy but in the short term there could be some opportunity in the bear futures spreads. Sept/Dec rarely gets above $3.00 and it is around $2.85 now.  A correction could bring that spread to $2.00 or lower.  Longer term I like crude and if you don’t want to take a shot shorting the market, then use the next correction to get long Dec call spreads.

Natural Gas is up 50% in the past year. Supplies have come down as production slowed due to COVID shutdowns and demand has surged due to renewed economic activity, warmer weather, and strong export demand. The draw on Natural Gas could continue for the rest of 2021 as supplies are not seen building on demand until 2022.  That makes $4 a target for Dec NG this summer and possibly $4.50 this winter.

Sept vs Dec Crude Oil

Dec 2021 Natural Gas