Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 223

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New Podcast

I’m working from home as the country goes into lockdown.  My office cell is 312-651-4621.  My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk.  This week we talk about the macro markets and how the US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Congress, and Administration will be dealing with the coronavirus crisis going forward.  We talk about how interest rates and treasuries are stabilizing (step #1 in any recovery).  We then go into what needs to happen for stocks and energy to stabilize.  Once that happens all the markets can start to recover.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

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Markets we talk about:

* Interest Rates – Bonds have backed off 20 points from their highs.  The 10 year is back over 1%.  The Fed is doing it’s job and providing liquidity to keep the financial system going. This is step #1 in any financial recovery.

* Stocks – The US is shutting down as people or working from home, schools are closed, and the public places/businesses are shutting down.  The US needs a strong fiscal policy and stimulus from the government to keep the economy from crashing.  This is step #2 and we need to see something soon from Congress and the President.

* Energy – Saudi Arabia is increasing production.  We are hearing US rigs starting to shut down.  April crude tested $20.06 this morning.  RBOB gasoline traded down to 64 cents!  The energy market will most likely stabilize soon when the stock market does.  We need a fiscal plan from the government and a better understanding when the nation will stop social distancing.

* Grains – Corn was under pressure all day as ethanol plants start to shut down.  Elevators were pulling bids on cash corn because they might not have anyone to sell it too. Gasoline is cheaper than ethanol right now and margins are very poor.  Corn could test $3.20 and maybe even $3.00 this year.  US soybeans are the cheapest in the world as cash prices are under Brazil at the moment.  That should be supportive for soybeans.  We heard rumors of China looking for high protein wheat from the US today and that has supported the wheat complex

* Livestock – Live cattle was limit up (expanded 4.500 limits) and eventually finished limit down (a 9 point move).  I have never seen that in the cattle market. It was one for the books.  Cash prices on the retail side have rallied big time as grocers need to restock supply. The good news is the US has plenty of meat in cold storage.  The bad news today was the livestocks markets (hogs and cattle) could not keep the rallies as the outside markets overwhelmed all sectors.  There will be demand for beef and pork (and chicken) and we think the livestock markets bottom first.

This Month

I will be working from home. You can call my office number 312-706-7610 and it will roll to my cell phone. My cell is 312-651-4621 and you can reach me there too.  Anything I can do in Chicago I can do from my home office, so feel free to call, text, or email anytime.  Stay safe and lets hope for better news and developments soon.

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