The corn market rallied 40 cents from Jan to March and then gave back 20 cents in about a weeks time.  We are now at the 50% retracement level and we expect corn to chop until Planting Intentions next week.  If the USDA reports 89mm acres and we assume a 175 yield, new crop ending stocks will be the same as old crop ending stocks.  To put it another way, we will use as much as we produce next year at 89mm acres and a 175 yield.  Traders also need to keep an eye on that soybean number.  At 90mm acres and a 48.5 yield I think we produce as much as we use, and new crop ending stocks will be about 550mm bushel, just like old crop.

In my book 89mm is the number for corn and 90mm is the number for soybeans.  Higher acres over those numbers is bearish and lower acres under those numbers is bullish.

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers.  Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets?  Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing http://www.turnerstakeag.com

Turner’s Take Futures Spreads http://www.turnerstake.com

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Twitter: @Turners_Take

 

 

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Turner’s Take Ag Marketing | 2018 Corn Outlook – Turner’s Take Ag Marketing sees 2018 corn prices having a possible range from $3.15 to $4.50 given various acreage, supply and demand scenarios, with an end of season target price of $3.70. Find out more about how we determine the range of prices, our suggested marketing strategies, and our 2018 target prices.

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