Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 270

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New Podcast

This week we go over our thoughts on the Prospective Plantings report next week and what it could mean for corn and soybean prices. We don’t know what the report will say but we are expecting a lot of volatility if the numbers do not come in as expected.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

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Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Stocks

Below are the estimates for next week’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report.  A few things jump out at me when looking at the tables below

* 93mm acres corn and 90mm acres soybeans would be a new Corn+Soybean combined acreage total.  Given current prices I think these expectations are warranted

* 93mm acres of corn and a trend line yield keeps corn in the $4s and $5s.  Only a significant weather scare could send old crop to $6 this summer.

* 90mm acres of soybeans is TIGHT.  With a trend line yield we use as much as we produce. Old crop ending stocks are predicted to be 120mm bu.  At 90mm acres and a 50.5 bpa my estimates keeps new crop ending stocks at 120mm bu. No changes to ending stocks year-over-year

* Corn March 1 stocks estimates are predicted be less than 200mm below last year.  In years past we have seen some big misses on the Quarterly Stocks report and it usually has to do with getting the feed number wrong.

* Soybean stocks are going to be much tighter this year than last year at this point in the calendar.  Soybeans are very tight.

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Corn

Below are my supply and demand tables for a few different scenarios. For old crop I assume the USDA keeps old crop exports at 2.6 billion.  I know many of you think exports could be 200mm to 400mm higher due to Chinese corn demand. I understand the argument but the USDA seems to think the increased buying from China is pushing traditional US corn customers to Ukraine or South America.