Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 274

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Earlier this week we sent out an email to take profits on old crop grain and oilseed positions.  US farmers will most likely plant a majority of their corn and soybeans over the next three weeks.  The May 12th WASDE will report new crop supply and demand numbers for the first time this year.  Domestic old crop stocks are tight but the US is overpriced on the global export market. This all points to a big choppy trading range for the next few weeks and we have some idea on how to trade it. We also need to get serious about new crop sales and 2022 hedges. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

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Corn

Dec 2021 corn reversed on Tuesday and we expect a choppy market for the next few weeks.  New crop corn should have a lot of resistance at $5.70 and strong support around $5.20.  Aggressive traders can buy support levels and sell resistance levels. I like selling put spreads if we get to $5.20 and selling call spreads if we get to $5.70.

On the chart below I have a couple of highlighted sections on the chart.  If we dip into the lower yellow area then corn is too cheap based on current ending stock projections. If corn gets to the upper yellow area I think corn is expensive (given there are no big weather threats yet).

This is my expected trading range for the next few weeks.  A weather market can develop in late May and June but the story of the next couple of weeks will most likely be the accelerating pace of corn and soybean planting.

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Soybeans 

I have the same ideas for soybeans as I do for corn (see the corn section above).  Below $13.00 new crop soybeans get too cheap based on current ending stock projections.  Breaking out over $14 is too expensive without a serious weather threat.  I like selling put spreads on a decline to $13. We’ll look to make cash sale recommendations if new crop rallies past $14.  Nov 2022 soybeans are $12 and considering how ...