Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 169

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New Podcast!

I am just getting back from talking at the Ag Risk Management event in Menomonie, WI and I fly out tonight to speak at the Farmland Partners Tenant Event in Denver.  On today’s podcast I go over the macro markets, spend a little time on grains, but then we get deep into the US/China trade war.  In my opinion, it can all be explained by Total Factor Productivity and how the US now sees China as their #1 rival globally when it comes to politics, economics, and the military.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

New Crop Corn & Soybean Acres

Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm.  Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers.  91.5mm acres and  178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral.  It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues.  86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600.  Not great.  That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand.  However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield.  That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues.  We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.

I am only in the office 1 day this week so this newsletter is going to be short.  Take a listen to the podcast and we’ll be back to our regular schedule and newsletter next week.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

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Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner