Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 213

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New Podcast!

Our first podcast of 2020 is out. We go over the recent macro market events and then dive into our thoughts on the upcoming WASDE on January 10th.  The Jan WASDE always has the potential to cause a limit move.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Macro Markets

The US-Iran turmoil has dominated the news and is causing jitters among traders and investors.  Some grain traders think this could also derail the US-China Phase One trade pact. It seems like the rhetoric between the US and Iran is calming down but it can easily flare up again.  This should cause some volatility in the stock, precious metal, and energy markets. I like buying the stock market on corrections.  A 5% correction in the ES is 3100, 10% is 2935, and 15% is 2770.  I like buying the ES at 3090, 2880, and 2820 .  If you want to keep the leverage small take a look at the Micro contract.

Continuous Emini S&P 500

January 10th WASDE

Spot corn has been in a trading range of $3.50 to $4.00 since early September.  I think March Corn trades between $3.75 and $3.95 unless we get a bullish surprise in the Jan WASDE.  Some analyst are arguing for cuts to yield and harvested acres. However, the market is also expecting a drop in demand.  The USDA has a tendency to have drops in demand cancel out drops in production.

As I wrote yesterday, we are 80% sold in old crop and 50% sold in new crop. I like having some short term Feb Corn calls heading into the report just in-case the USDA has a big bullish surprise.  See yesterday’s Turner’s Take for details or call/email me for additional ideas.

Continuous Corn

Spot soybeans continue to make higher highs. The funds are now flat and they are waiting to see what comes of the WASDE and the US-China trade deal.  The last reports suggest the US and China will sign Phase One on January 15th. If US soybean demand goes back to pre-trade war levels then ending stocks could be sub 400, new crop beans could go to $10, soybean acres will have to go up, and corn acres in turn should decrease.

I wrote yesterday about Feb Soybean $9.50 calls.  They expire Jan 24 and they get your through the 1/10 WASDE and the expected Phase One signing on 1/15.  I bought them today for 7 cents.  I’m 70% old crop and 20% sold new crop.  I have no problem being long some calls heading into two potentially bullish catalysts.

Continuous Soybeans

Lastly we take a look at Chicago SRW Wheat.  There is a lot of resistance on the continuous chart at $5.75.  At that level I am a seller of March Chicago wheat.  The market is up $1.50 since May. We have a lot of stocks on hand.  A decent harvest this year for SRW and it should take care of the ongoing quality issues.

Continuous Wheat

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

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Twitter: @Turners_Take