Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 188

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The USDA released the June WASDE today and it was bullish for corn, neutral for wheat, and bearish for soybeans.  Corn lead all markets higher, wheat was a follower, and soybeans finished the day unchanged.  To hear our in-depth WASDE commentary please take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast.

WASDE Bullish Corn

Click here for the full WASDE report from the USDA

Click here for the summary tables on the Daniels Trading website

The big news is the USDA decreased new crop corn production by 1.235 billion bushels.  Acres decreased 3mm from 92.8 to 89.8.  We expect this number to come down another 3mm for the June 30th report to 86.8mm.  Yield was slashed 10 bpa from 176 to 166.

Use (demand) was also lowered.  Production is low enough (and prices high enough) that the USDA lowered exports by 125mm and feed by 300mm.  Imports (think S.Am corn coming into the SE US) also rose.

For the next couple of weeks the trade will debate the final corn acreage number.  Between now and late July yields will be hotly debated, daily price moves will be very sensitive to changes in the weather forecast, and the market will have to figure out how high prices have to go to properly ratio demand.

At $4.50 new crop corn we see the US very noncompetitive in the export market and feeds use switches from corn to wheat.  Bottom line is the rest of the world’s major exporters have over 2 billion bushels of excess supply.  I don’t think global stocks get tight until the US is sub 86mm acres and sub 160 yield.  Until then I think it could be difficult for corn to rally much past the old highs.  Only time will tell but due to the adequate corn supply for global exp...