Jim and Ray welcome Thailand’s renowned scholar and journalist Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak to help them understand why the past quarter century has seen Thailand’s politics in a state of near-constant turmoil, and what the prospects are for the years ahead.

Dr. Thitinan explains how the conservative forces of Thailand’s monarchy, judiciary and military have used their institutional power to sideline repeated electoral victories by populist and reformist groups. He discusses how the one-time outsider Thaksin Shinawatra has overcome being deposed by military coup to return to power behind the scenes with the election of his daughter Paetongtarn as prime minister.

He also unpacks Thailand’s political youth movement, and how it actually won the most votes in the last election but was prevented from taking power by an alliance of the country’s traditional powers and Thaksin. He explains how this young party–now called the People’s Party–remains a potent force.

Thailand’s turmoil has led to economic stagnation as foreign investment has shied away from the uncertainty of its politics, but Dr. Thitinan believes stability in the medium term should usher in a period of growth.

Geopolitically, Thailand has been among America’s least reliable allies, he contends, because its anti-democratic forces have driven it in the direction of more autocratic regimes like China’s. Meanwhile, the Thai government faces pressure from Beijing to send Uyghur refugees back to China, which is opposed by the U.S.

Thailand is also dealing with threats to its security from across the border, where Myanmar’s civil war threatens to spill over.

Dr. Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He is also a senior advisor with our podcast’s sponsor, BowerGroupAsia.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.