Rhombus Power founder and CEO Anshu Roy explains to Ray and Jim how artificial intelligence (AI) has been able to predict future global crises months before they occurred--including events such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and this summer's regime-ending political instability in Bangladesh.

By sifting through vast amounts of data, AI augments and complements human analysis by identifying patterns and anomalies that even the best analysts can easily miss, and then synthesizing them into projections about future events.

Roy further explains how important it is to carefully and continuously curate data sources to prevent AI "hallucinations" as often occur on less sophisticated applications such as ChatGPT. Rhombus incorporates over 500 streams of publicly available and commercial data sources--from satellite service providers to media to socioeconomic data.

In the hands of responsible actors AI has tremendous potential to prevent future conflict and other crises by reducing uncertainty and buying time for better decision-making. However, it can also be a terrifying tool in the hands of our adversaries.

Jim and Ray talk to Indonesian expert Aristyo Darmawan about how international law applies to the contest over the South China Sea. Aristyo explains how a rules-based international order ensures equal footing for all countries, and unpacks the history and significance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)--particularly from an Indonesian perspective.

They also discuss the challenges and limitations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations, and whether they will ever result in an actual agreement or whether they are being used by Beijing as a delaying tactic while it consolidates control. Specifically, Aristyo answers the question of whether ASEAN is able to address the actual security concerns of a nation under direct threat such as the Philippines currently faces from China.

The conversation concludes with a comparison of Canberra and Jakarta as capital cities, and then Jim tells the story of how his family weathered severe flooding during his tour in Indonesia.

Jim and Ray talk to former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzullo to discuss the critical challenge of defense procurement and weapons production in the face of the looming threat of conflict in the Indo-Pacific while wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Pezzullo emphasizes the urgent need for the Australia, the U.S. and their allies to address their defense industrial base capacity to deter such a war--or win, if necessary. For Australia he proposes the creation of a statutory commission to streamline the procurement process and speed up production. He also highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts and the need for a collective security agreement in the Pacific region to counter China's strategic ascendancy.

Ray and Jim talk to Dr. Prashanth Parmeswaran, founder of the ASEAN Wonk newsletter, about "ASEAN centrality"--both its importance and the challenges it faces in managing issues in Southeast Asia. ASEAN, a diplomatic grouping of 10 countries in Southeast Asia, sees itself as the primary driving force in managing the region's relations between its members and with external powers, but there are clear limitations to its ability to resolve complex issues like the South China Sea dispute and hydroelectric dams along the Mekong River. The organization operates by consensus, which can be challenging with diverse member states and conflicting interests. The conversation also touches on the varied perceptions of China's role in the region among ASEAN's member states, and their views on minilateral institutions like the Quad and AUKUS.

In this week's "There I was..." segment, Jim and Ray share their experiences with karaoke in Southeast Asian diplomatic circles.

Australian naval expert Jennifer Parker joins Ray and Jim to talk about the nuclear-powered submarines Australia will be acquiring as a result of the new trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) partnership. Jen discusses the advantages of nuclear-powered submarines over their diesel-powered cousins, and the reactions of Australia's neighbors to the abrupt AUKUS announcement. She also explains the distinction between nuclear power and nuclear weapons, and how confusion over these terms played a role in the controversy surrounding the deal. Jen unpacks the risks involved with such a significant leap in technology--such as its high cost and the country's lack of nuclear expertise and infrastructure--and how Australia is working to mitigate those risks. Jen takes on some of the AUKUS deal's critics, including those who believe Australia should prioritize a close-in defense of Australia. Finally, in our "There I was ..." segment, Ray tells the story about how he had to learn English all over again when he served in Australia.

Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros has been leading an extraordinary investigation into Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs) and their malign social, economic and political implications. In this special, in-person interview with co-host Ray Powell, she explains the history and origins of POGOs, their rapid spread under former President Rodrigo Duterte, and their ties to Chinese criminal syndicates.

She explains the remarkable case of Alice Guo, a small city mayor who was implicated following a federal raid on a local POGO. Her extraordinary wealth and evidently false documentation of her Philippine birth raise questions of whether she was planted into the political system, by whom and for what purpose.

The conversation then turns to regional tensions with China--especially in the West Philippine Sea--and the importance of protecting Philippine national interests in the face of foreign interference.

It also discusses the role of the United States and the need for international support in addressing these issues.

Retired Ambassador Bob Blackwill and Richard Fontaine talk to Jim and Ray about how America failed to complete its "pivot to Asia" during the past decade and across successive administrations. The authors of the recent bestseller, 'The Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power', argue that America's much-celebrated geostrategic rebalance has never fully materialized, resulting in a weaker US position in the face of a rapid rise in Chinese power and aggression. They emphasize the increasing importance of the Indo-Pacific, the area of greatest geopolitical competition and compounding threats to the global order. They call for a belated but properly executed pivot that includes economic, military and diplomatic components. The conversation also touches on the challenges of getting the American people and political class behind a pivot to Asia, the need for increased defense spending and the importance of deterrence in dealing with China.

Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami discusses the rise of China's "wolf-warrior" diplomacy, including what motivates their aggressive approach to their diplomatic roles. He explains how China's growing economic and military power has led to a shift in their approach to international relations, with a focus on regaining national prestige at the expense of China's neighbors. Ambassador Yamagami emphasizes the need for countries to speak out against these aggressive tactics and not acquiesce to their demands. He also discusses the importance of the AUKUS and the Quad, Japan's recent rapprochement with South Korea, and the important role of Japan's new national security policy in countering China's influence.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Ray tells his experience with a Chinese military diplomat who had a list of things he had to say.

"If you don't have an India play, you're not recognizing the realities of growth over the next 30 or 40 years on our planet."

U.S.-India Business Council President Ambassador Atul Keshap spotlights the shared values and democratic principles between India and the United States, emphasizing that India's rise to become the world's third largest economy will be a net benefit for the American people. The conversation also covers India's economic growth, the challenges of attracting foreign direct investment, the need for job creation, and the complexities of doing business in India. Additionally, the discussion touches on India's geopolitical relationships, including its border disputes with China, its involvement in the Quad alliance, and its pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

Member of Parliament Peter Khalil joins Jim and Ray to talk about how Australia has dealt with foreign interference operations--with an emphasis on Beijing's sophisticated influence machine--through national legislation and other security policies and framework documents. This response has been comprehensive, including strengthening Australia's defense, cyber security and intelligence efforts, as well as building security partnerships with like-minded democracies. Universities have been a particular target of foreign interference operations, and Peter discusses how Australia has tried to curb China's corrupting influences in academia while maintaining academic freedom. Another critical challenge has been to build in this national resilience while avoiding xenophobic policies and rhetoric that negatively impacts Australia's important ethnic Chinese communities. Peter ends by emphasizing how a successful the Indo-Pacific future must be built on a middle-power fulcrum, where like-minded countries work together to uphold the crucial rules-based order and deter conflict.