WTFinance

Interview recorded - 26th of September, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with  @JamesKerLindsay - A Geopolitical and Ethnic Conflicts expert. James holds a PhD in International Conflict Analysis and has published a dozen books on ethnic conflicts and territorial disputes.

During our conversation we spoke about whether we are living in more turbulent times, what the current geopolitical landscape compares to, whether a region can secede, other drivers that will impact geopolitics in the future and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00  - Introduction
1:16 - Are we living in more turbulent times than normal?
8:14 - What does our current geopolitical landscape remind James of?
14:16 - Setting the precedent of annexing territory?
18:34 - Is the globe hypocritical on current Azerbaijan invasion?
25:26 - Is secession possible in todays day and age?
30:51 - Going back to proxy wars?
37:40 - Other drivers that will impact geopolitics in the future?
41:15 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

James Ker-Lindsay is Visiting Professor at LSEE. His research focuses on conflict, peace and security in South East Europe (Western Balkans, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus), European Union enlargement, and secession and recognition in international politics.

He has played an active role in the development of South East European Studies, both in Britain and internationally. He is a former coordinator of the BISA Working Group on the region and is on the editorial boards of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, the Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, and Ethnopolitics.

As well as his academic work, Prof Ker-Lindsay maintains a strong record of policy engagement and consultancy. He has worked at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest independent security and defence studies think tank, and at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. He has also served as an advisor to a number of governments and international organisations, including the United Nations and the Council of Europe. He appears regularly in the media and has been interviewed by many leading international news organisations, such as the BBC, CNN, Reuters, Associated Press, The Economist, The Guardian, The New York Times, Radio Free Europe, SKY News, The Times and the Wall Street Journal.

James Ker-Lindsay -

YouTube -  @JamesKerLindsay  
Books - https://www.amazon.co.uk/James-Ker-Lindsay/e/B001JOTQ88/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JamesKerLindsay

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 22nd of September, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Peter Foster - Public Policy Editor of the Financial Times and author of the recently released book “What Went Wrong With Brexit: And What Can We Do About It”.

During our conversation we spoke about Peter's influence for writing the book, what went wrong with Brexit, whether COVID had an impact, the issue of free movement within the EU, can Brexit be fixed and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
2:16 - What was Peter’s influence for writing the book?
3:39 - Challenging for constructive conversations
6:49 - Promises laid out during BREXIT and actual implementation?
11:39 - Disaggregating COVID impact?
16:34 - Free movement was a big issue in the UK
25:17 - Can Brexit be fixed?
32:02 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Peter Foster is the public policy editor of the Financial Times. His brief is to break out of the bubbles of Westminster and Whitehall to cover all aspects of UK policy, including the implementation of Brexit, the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and the economic and 'levelling up' agendas of the Rishi Sunak government.

He joined the FT in April 2020 from the Telegraph Media Group where he had held the position of Europe editor since 2015, focusing on the Brexit negotiations. He has more than two decades of experience covering global affairs from all sides of the world, based in New Delhi (2004-2008) and Beijing (2008-2012), as well as Washington DC, where he served as The Telegraph's US editor from 2012.

He also writes the FT's weekly Britain After Brexit newsletter.

Peter Foster -

Twitter - https://twitter.com/pmdfoster
Book - https://www.amazon.co.uk/What-Went-Wrong-Brexit-About-ebook/dp/B0BXPVW5G1/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 18th of September, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Tavi Costa - Partner and Portfolio manager of Crescat Capital.

During our conversation we spoke about what Tavi is currently watching, the potential macroeconomic shift, what this means for current portfolio, assets which will perform during this period and more!

0:00 - Introduction
2:01 - What is Tavi watching in markets?
6:44 - Macroeconomic shift that is occurring?
11:20 - Are markets underestimating shift or could things go back to norm?
18:42 - Why will value investors work this time?
24:19 - What alternatives to the 60/40 portfolio?
30:05 - How does Tavi invest in miners?
37:50 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Tavi is a Member and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He is responsible for developing Crescat’s macro models as part of our thematic investment process. His research has been featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Real Vision, and others. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

Tavi Costa - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/tavicosta?lang=en
Crescat - https://www.crescat.net/
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 19th of September, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Alasdair Macleod for a 3rd time - Head of Research for Goldmoney and SchiffGold.

During our conversation we touched on the current debt cycle, why the central banks are losing control of the cost of credit, whether this could lead to a credit crisis, why a gold-backed currency would be trusted and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:36 - What is Alasdair seeing with the economic cycle?
7:52 - Central banks to lose control of cost of credit?
12:02 - China one of the worst effected by debt issues?
20:22 - Capital flying to the US Dollar?
27:49 - Governments continuing to buy their own debt?
38:20 - Why would there be trust in gold-backed currencies?
45:27 - Will gold circulate globally?
47:12 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money through demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.

Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.

Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.

For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macroeconomic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

Alasdair Macleod - 

Website - https://www.goldmoney.com/
Blog - https://www.goldmoney.com/research/legal-definitions-of-money-and-credit
Recent Article - https://www.goldmoney.com/research/time-to-trash-triffin
Twitter - https://twitter.com/MacleodFinance
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alasdair-macleod-9494b27/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 11th of September 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back  @stevenvanmetre5087 - Money Manager & YouTuber.

During our conversation we spoke about whether US banks are insolvent, whether the FED can save the markets, if this crash will be worse than 2008, what we will see internationally and assets that will perform well during a recession. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
3:37 - Are US banks insolvent?
7:37 - Can the FED bailout banks?
11:24 - Treasury issuing bonds
14:12 - Reverse repo to help increase liquidity?
16:12 - FED to save the markets?
17:57 - Will inflation be higher for longer?
23:41 - Will this crash be worse than 2008?
27:05 - Will it be the end of our current debt cycle?
29:46 - The price to pay for borrowing
31:29 - Dollar strength during this period?
33:26 - What are we seeing internationally?
36:37 - Changing measurements of GDP measurement
38:42 - Assets that will perform well during this recession?
40:36 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Steven Van Metre, Certified Financial Planner™ Professional, (CA Insurance License #0D45202 & Investment Advisory Representative with Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisory firm.) is the inventor and manager of Portfolio Shield™, the creator of Momentum Timer Pro™, and the President of Steven Van Metre Financial.

Steven Van Metre -

YouTube -  @stevenvanmetre5087  
Portfolio Shield - https://stevenvanmetre.com/portfolio-shield/
Website - https://stevenvanmetre.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/MetreSteven

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 8th of September, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Randy Woodward, Managing Director in the Fixed Income Capital Markets division at Raymond James Financial.

During our conversation we spoke about what is happening in the markets, why the bank collapses occurred, how the FED changed forever under Bernanke, whether inflation will remain higher for longer and potential for a commercial real estate crisis. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
3:04 - What is Randy watching in markets/economy?
6:20 - Inverted yield curve?
8:50 - How are banks fairing with unrealised losses?
16.30 - Central banks can do anything?
19:15 - Saving the financial system at all costs
23:50 - Banks missing out on higher revenues
30:00 - Will inflation be transitory or higher for longer?
35:30 - Global countries going to cut faster than US
37:48 - What is currently happening in commercial real estate?
46:40 - Companies defaulting on real estate
48:55 - Could Commercial Real Estate be another 2008 crisis?
52:20 - Ben Bernanke changed the markets
54:42 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Randy Woodward is a Managing Director in the Fixed Income Capital Markets division at Raymond James Financial. Randy has unique experience and depth of knowledge in the fixed income industry.

Randy began his career at Bloomberg from 1988 to 1995, working in a range of areas including training, editorial, programming, and sales. Randy became a fixed income broker in 1995, and has developed a proven track record of helping institutional clients manage safe and sound bond portfolios. Given his unique skill set, Randy provides his clients an advanced service that no other broker can offer. Whether they have access to a Bloomberg or rely on brokers for screen shots, it’s imperative they understand in detail the screens that are provided to them, and more importantly, they need to understand what can be manipulated, altered, or omitted.

Randy’s primary objective as a broker is to not only “protect” his clients, but also to educate them on how to better protect themselves, as well as making better investment decisions and executions.

Randy Woodward: 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 31st of August, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Bob Elliott - CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds.

During our conversation we spoke about what Bob is currently seeing in the markets, whether this could lead to a 50% decrease in stock markets, whether this would also happen globally and more. 

0:00 - Introduction
1:09 - What is Bob currently seeing in the markets?
3:04 - What are the cracks Bob is seeing?
7:37 - Shortage in long end bonds?
9:34 - What type of recession could we see?
12:28 - Hard to stop a recession
13:39 - What would happen with increasing unemployment?
16:41 - Could the stock market drop 50%?
18:14 - How far could markets drop?
24:25 - Deflation and pivot or inflation and higher for longer?
30:34 - Collapse or slow tightening?
33:29 - What is happening globally?
38:04 - Anything positive in the markets?
40:45 - One message to takeaway?

Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital & private equity. 

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha Fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for almost a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counselled some of the world’s foremost policy makers and institutional investor on economic and investing issues. 

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. 

Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard. 

Bob Elliott - 

Website - https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/bobeunlimited?s=21&t=bEWfVJjh6KcziPA0zpyEPA
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 31st of August, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Dr Anas Alhajji - a world-renowned energy markets expert, researcher, author, and a speaker.

During our conversation we spoke about the current state of the energy market, how China has a lot of control, whether oil could push $100, if the US can save Europe from an energy crisis again and more!

0:00 - Introduction
1:40 - Overview of energy markets?
9:30 - US benefited from European energy reliance
11:20 - China will have control over energy prices
15:35 - The China issue
17:10 - Saudi Floor price and China ceiling price
25:42 - Can China push Oil price lower?
27:04 - Price target for oil 2023?
28:20 - Gabon impact on oil markets
32:45 - Could further instability have an impact on oil markets?
34:16 - Natural resource economics
46:39 - Will Europe be ok this winter?
49:52 - Other energy costs increase?
54:59 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Dr. Anas F. Alhajji is a world-renowned energy markets expert, researcher, author, and a speaker with more than 900 papers, articles and columns to his credit. He advises governments, companies, financial institution and investors on various energy markets issues. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy.

Before his recent role as a Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, he was the former Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He led the Firm’s macro-analysis of the oil, natural gas and related markets as well as the overall economic environment. He was responsible for the short-term and long term outlooks for oil, natural gas, NGLs, and LNG markets.

Dr. Alhajji’s articles appeared in numerous countries in more than 10 languages, and his work is cited in over 60 books. He has addressed numerous companies, institutions, and national and international organizations. He also serves on the board of several energy-related publications. He is a contributing editor for the one of the industry’s premier publications: World Oil. He is also the moderator of the industry’s oldest virtual Forum: Oil, Gas, & Energy Law (OGEL)

Prior to joining NGP, Dr. Alhajji taught economics at the University of Oklahoma (1995 to 1997), the Colorado School of Mines (1997 to 2001), and Ohio Northern University (2001 to 2008), where he held the George Patton Chair of Business and Economics. Dr. Alhajji taught courses in economics, energy economics and policy, and energy geopolitics.
Dr. Alhajji was educated in Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. He holds M.A. in Economics, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oklahoma, with a specialization in energy economics and policy. He received many awards including the Teaching Excellence Award and the Outstanding Mentor Award in addition to many prizes in woodworking.

Dr Anas Alhajji - 

Website - https://www.anasalhajji.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/anasalhajji
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anas-alhajji/
Substack - https://afalhajji.substack.com/
Attaqa - https://attaqa.net/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 31st of August 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with David Rosenberg - Founder & President of Rosenberg Research & associates.

During our conversation we spoke about why we have seen strong markets throughout 2023, similarities between 2008 and today, whether we could see a deep recession and what this means for assets moving forward. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:32 - Why have we seen strong markets in 2023?
4:27 - Have you been surprised about consumer strength?
9:39 - Similarities between today and 2008?
16:47 - All linked to employment
22:42 - Unemployment back to the mean?
23:57 - Will it be a deep recession?
35:52 - Jay Powell late to the cutting party?
42:17 - How will assets react to a recession?
49:55 - One message to take away from our conversation?

David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. He and his team have as their top priority providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.

Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row.

Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to most major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.

David Rosenberg - 

Website - https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-rosenberg-40800219b/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview Recorded - 29th of August, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Constan, CEO & CIO of Damped Spring Advisor.

During our conversation we spoke about Andy's thoughts on Jackson Hole, while higher interest rates will drive down both stocks and bonds, what this means for unemployment, what would change Andy's opinion and whether this could lead to further issues with banks. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:43 - Overview of Andy’s thoughts and Jackson Hole
8:35 - How is there a shortage of government debt?
11:03 - Duration moving during uncertainty
12:42 - Treasury raising funds
14:09 - Reverse Repo continue to pick up slack moving forward?
18:50 - Will employment slowly change or require a catalyst?
20:40 - Could student payment re-introduction impact inflation?
21:30 - Do individuals have to lose their job?
23:04 - What would have to change to change Andy’s perspective?
25:14 - Parallels to 2008?
27:25 - What will happen internationally?
28:49 - Dollar to continue to strengthen?
30:06 - Further issues in banks ?
32:28 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Andy has spent the past 35 years investing and trading global markets. Over the last 12 years, he has developed strong expertise in Macro investing working at Bridgewater Associates as an Idea Generator and most recently at Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy spent the first part of his career at Salomon Brothers and its successor companies. After 17 years at Salomon and as the Head of Global Equity Derivatives, Andy left and started two relative value hedge funds specializing in Multi-Asset Volatility Arbitrage and Capital Structure Arbitrage. Throughout his career, Andy has developed a keen cutting edge understanding of systematic quantitative research and investment while also deeply appreciating the importance of the insights that arise from discretionary investing strategies.

Andy Constan - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/dampedspring
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andyconstan/
Website - https://dampedspring.com/

WTFinance -

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas