WTFinance

Interview Recorded - 27th of July, 2023

Buy Book Here - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0241569168/

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of speaking with Edward Chancellor - A financial historian, journalist and investment strategist. He is also the author of the recently released book “The Price of Time”. 

During our conversation we spoke about the Price of Time, what impact low interest rates have had on markets and the economy, what we can expect in the future and more. I hope you enjoy. 

0:00 - Introduction
1:18 - What is the Price of Time?
4:27 - Why is the price of time important?
9:18 - What impact does negative interest rates have on the economy & markets?
16:18 - Valuations go down as interest rates go up
23:33 - Surprised by how certain markets have held up with higher interest rates?
28:43 - Could history be suggesting current empires will collapse?
40:03 - Interest rates are difficult to predict
42:08 - One message to take away from conversation?

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist and investment strategist. Edward read history at Trinity College, Cambridge, where he graduated with first-class honours, and later gained an M.Phil. in Enlightenment history from Oxford University. In the early 1990s he worked for the London merchant bank, Lazard Brothers. He was later an editor at the financial commentary site, Breakingviews. From 2008 to 2014, Edward was a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO, the Boston-based investment firm. 

He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek, the New York Review of Books and Financial Times. In 2008, Edward received the George Polk Award for financial reporting for his article “Ponzi Nation” in Institutional Investor magazine.

Edward Chancellor is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (Farrar Straus/Macmillan, 1999), a New York Times Notable Book of the Year. Devil Take the Hindmost has been translated into more than half a dozen languages. In 2005, he published the report, Crunch-Time for Credit? (Harriman House), an analysis of the ongoing credit boom in the US and UK.  Edward has also edited two well-received investment books, Capital Account (Thomson Texere, 2004) and Capital Returns (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015). 

His latest book, The Price of Time, is published by Allen Lane in the United Kingdom and Atlantic Monthly Press in the United States. The Price of Time has been longlisted for the FT 2022 Business Book of the Year.

Edward Chancellor - 

Website - https://www.edwardchancellor.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/chancellor_e

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 5th of July, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and finance historian.

During our conversation we spoke about whether the system can handle rising interest rates with the high debt levels, if this would require depreciation of the currency, whether financialisation is a bad thing and more!

0:00 - Introduction
1:23 - How can we compare recent economics to the past?
5:05 - Can the system handle increasing interest rates with high debt?
8:45 - Depreciation of currency
10:30 - Where would economic growth come from?
11:45 - Have emerging markets taken growth away from developed markets the past decades?
15:32 - How can central banks overcome inflation?
19:35 - Will the FED push the economy into a recession?
22:10 - Unemployment remaining strong
24:20 - Have interest rates ever increased so much without a recession?
25:55 - What is real interest rate?
29:03 - Is financialisaton a bad thing?
31:35 - Japanification 
34:10 - Are central banks kicking our problems down the road?
37:50 - Looking at the long term
42:00 - One message to take away from our conversation? 

Richard Sylla is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and the former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University Stern School of Business. He teaches courses in financial history, economic and business history of the United States, and comparative enterprise systems.

Professor Sylla has been with NYU Stern since 1990. His primary areas of research include historical studies of money, banking, and finance. He is the author of several books, including The American Capital Market and A History of Interest Rates. His writing has appeared in numerous publications, including the Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History, Business History Review, and Enterprise & Society. He is also on the editorial board of many journals that include the Financial History Review, Enterprise and Society, and Economic and Financial History Abstracts. Professor Sylla has also been the recipient of several awards and grants including National Science Foundation grants, an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant and the Citibank Award for Excellence in Teaching at the Stern School. He served as President of the Economic History Association and the Business History Conference, and is currently the Chairman of the Museum of American Finance. He is a Fellow of the Cliometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Prior to joining Stern, Professor Sylla taught at North Carolina State and the University of Pennsylvania among others. Professor Sylla received his bachelor of arts from Harvard University before studying at the Indian Statistical Institute at Calcutta. He then received both his master of arts and his doctorate of philosophy from Harvard University.

Richard Sylla - 

Website - https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/richard-sylla
Research - https://www.nber.org/people/richard_sylla?page=1&perPage=50

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 7th of July, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Jason Shapiro, Principal at JS Trading and Chief Strategist of Crowded Market Report.

During our conversation we spoke about how Jason believes markets have more upside, his market sentiment strategy, why its all about choosing the right trade, the current opportunities Jason is watching and more!

0:00 - Introduction
1:25 - What is Jason seeing in the markets?
4:00 - How do you know when sentiment has changed?
5:30 - Don’t buy the laggers
6:40 - Jason’s strategy, how he built it and why it is successful?
10:00 - What do most traders do wrong?
13:15 - Its not just about being right, but choosing the right trade
14:50 - Concentration of markets
18:30 - What is Jason’s process?
21:30 - What happens when position closes?
22:35 - Position sizing
23:10 - What are the current opportunities?
28:30 - One message to take away from our conversation?
33:06 - Where to find Jason’s work?

With over 30 years of trading experience, Jason has gone through most markets a trader should see in their career.  From the crazy rallies during the 90s, the tech bubble pop in early 2000s, the 2008 market crash and the latest bull run starting in 2009.  Through the last 20 years of his career, he has used a contrarian approach which has been very successful to him and his clients, as verified by Jack D. Schwager in his latest MARKET WIZARDS BOOK.  Jason has managed large sums of money from a few million to several hundred million and learned a great deal about the Futures markets, from Equities, Currencies and Fixed Income to Currencies and Precious Metals.

Jason Shapiro -

Website - https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-shapiro-53674994/
YouTube -  @crowdedmarketreport

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 5th of July, 2023

During this interview of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Daniel McNamara - Founder & CIO of Polpo Capital. 

During our conversation we spoke about what is happening in commercial real estate, why this market could see large losses, who are the bag holders and what this means for commercial real estate moving forward. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - What is happening in commercial real estate?
3:40 - Which geographies will be the most effected and who are the bag holders?
6:05 - Investors to take large losses
7:30 - Worse with variable rates internationally?
8:40 - Could commercial real estate be a catalyst for another 2008 crisis?
10:00 - Types of commercial real estate
12:30 - Cyclical trend - old vs new 
14:25 - Converting commercial to homes
15:55 - Asset managers walking away from commercial real estate investments
18:40 - Any other macro drivers?
19:40 - Where are the commercial real estate opportunities?
21:40 - How does an extension work?
23:20 - During distress, rotating to higher quality assets
25:40 - One message to takeaway from conversation?

Daniel McNamara - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara
Website - https://www.polpocapital.com/
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-mcnamara-946a969/

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 7th of July, 2023

Buy the book here - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/

On todays WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Neil Howe, co-author of the ground breaking “The Fourth Turning” and author of the upcoming update to the original book “The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis will End.”

During our conversation we spoke about what the seasons of history are, how they influence demographics, what the current Fourth Turning could bring and the potential golden age after such crises. I hope you enjoy. 

0:00 - Introduction
2:00 - Overview of the seasons of history and the Fourth Turning?
11:13 - Seasons and how they influence demographics?
20:10 - When did the current crisis period begin?
23:50 - Are these seasons inevitable?
28:10 - What other crises can we expect in the next decade?
33:45 - Emergence of global powers after winters
39:55 - How will nuclear weapons impact future crises conflict?
47:25 - What can we expect after crises?
51:40 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Neil Howe is an acclaimed historian, economist, and demographer and the bestselling author (with William Strauss) of The Fourth Turning, as well as over a dozen books on demographic and social change. The nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future—Howe is Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates, which serves hundreds of corporate, nonprofit, and government clients. He lives with his family in Great Falls, Virginia.

Neil Howe - 

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/neilhowe/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration
Hedgeye - https://app.hedgeye.com/

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Thumbnail image from - Thomas Cole, Series "The Course of Empire - Destruction"

Interview recorded - 30th of June, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of speaking with Thomas Thornton, President at Hedge Fund Telemetry. 

During our conversation we spoke about why the FED will continue to hike, the potential for a hard landing, Thomas' trading strategy and what sectors we could see a rotation into. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:32 - Can the FED created a soft landing?
4:20 - Indicators that Thomas is currently watching for a reversal?
12:20 - Could markets be at the peak?
18:23 - Any other macro drivers they watching?
19:35 - Rotation between different sectors
21:50 - What other sectors?
24:20 - How else does Thomas get trade opinions?
26:20 - One message to takeaway from our conversation

Former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst with Level Global Investors and Galileo Capital. Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry. His long term focus on sentiment indicators borders on the obsessive. Our growing team at Hedge Fund Telemetry is comprised of current and former buy and sell side individuals.

Thomas Thornton - 

Website - https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/TommyThornton
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-thornton-16130310/

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Thumbnail image from - https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/investments/mutual-funds/money-managers-caught-off-guard-as-stock-market-shifts/373687

Interview Recorded - 29th of June, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments.

During our conversation we spoke about what is currently happening in the markets, why governments are driving currencies into the ground, whether this could be the end to the US Empire and which assets will perform during this period. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - What is Andy currently watching?
10:50 - Governments driving currencies into the ground
17:18 - Can the current economy transition to a asset-backed currency?
23:03 - Why would anyone trust an asset-backed currency?
29:14 - Is this the end of the US Empire?
34:17 - Which assets will perform during this period?
38:05 - One message to take away from our conversation

Prior to starting Miles Franklin, Ltd. in 1989, Andrew became a Licensed Financial Planner, specializing in Swiss Franc Investments and alternative investments. At Miles Franklin Ltd., a company that has eclipsed $5 billion in sales, Andrew has developed an operation that maintains trust, collaboration, and ethical behavior, superior customer service and satisfaction to better serve their clients. He is responsible for overseeing the firm’s operations and business functions; including strategy and planning, account management, finance, and new business.

Andy Schectman 

Website - https://www.milesfranklin.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/milesfranklinco
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andy-schectman-0895854/

WTFinance - 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 27th of June, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Julian Brigden, Co-Founder and President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners.

During our conversation we spoke about Julian's thoughts on the current market, fiscal vs private investment, why the second half could be horrible for US equities, whether the market can ween itself off QE and what the future looks like. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:12 - Julian’s thoughts on current market action?
5:10 - Fiscal replaces private weakness?
7:40 - Fiscal benefit goes towards certain industries
9:15 - Central Banks changing pivot tone
11:45 - K recovery within the economy?
13:40 - Second half of the year will be different
17:20 - Reverse repo to bills
20:20 - Bullish narrative will change
23:25 - What will Julian be watching?
25:40 - Equity market performance revolves around liquidity
27:40 - Can the market ween itself off QE?
32:15 - Can Central Banks continue current QE process?
37:53 - AI Revolution or Productivity Increase
39:50 - Any positivity?
43:40 - Would US equities fall more if US Dollar strengthens?
45:35 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?

Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales. 

Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade. 

Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.

MI2 Institutional Research offers a student discount for their subscription.  The Student rate is $5,001/year for one user and includes access to:
8-10 Monthly Research Reports:

Any questions may be directed to: [email protected] 

If you are interested in learning more about the Global Macro Summit in Vail between September 26 - 29, check out the link below - 

https://mi2partners.com/global-macro-summit-early-bird-registration/

Julian -

Website - https://mi2partners.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julian-brigden-150b2114

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 28th of June, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back David Hunter for a third time. 

During our conversation we spoke about whether the Melt-Up is still on, what will influence it, which sectors will benefit from this and why the market is still so bearish. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - Does David think Melt-Up is still on?
3:10 - Why will the S&P hit 6-7,000?
8:20 - Defensive investors forced to enter stock market?
11:10 - Drain of liquidity
12:35 - Concerned about concentration of market?
14:30 - Economic support or market driven?
18:25 - Worst after the FED cuts?
22:34 - Fundamentals driving Melt-up
27:09 - Bull market is currently contrarian
29:40 - One message to takeaway from conversation?

Investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 20 years as a sell-side strategist with strong expertise in macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management. My strong macro capabilities combined with a contrarian philosophy have allowed me to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd. Accomplished stock picker and value-oriented portfolio manager.

David Hunter - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-hunter-668ba015/

WTFinance -

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 20th of June, 2023

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of speaking with John Rubino - Founder of dollarcollapse.com, author/co-author of 5 books and a great Substack. 

During our conversation we spoke about the bearish pain to come, why we will see further bank failures, could central banks bail out governments, whether this would lead to a Bretton Woods 3.0 and how to protect wealth during this period. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction 
0:53 - Key events that John is currently watching?
4:10 - Surprised how well the economy has held up?
5:20 - How will John know bearish catalyst
8:35- Why would central banks not bail out government?
13:10 - Do central bankers have any tools left to save the current system?
16:30 - Bretton Woods 3.0 or BRICS currency to emerge?
22:00 - What is happen with the Euro?
29:10 - Potential for a hot or cold war between diverging regions?
35:20 - How to protect wealth?
37:20 - Is land really a store of wealth when governments can tax?
40:55 - Key message to take away from our conversation?

John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops and Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022.

John's newsletter provides actionable advice, based on a couple of premises:

- The financial world is spinning out of control and will get considerably worse before it gets better.

- There are things we can do to improve our odds of surviving and thriving as the chaos unfolds.

John Rubino - 

Substack - https://rubino.substack.com/
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-rubino-a952146/

WTFinance - 

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas