Podcast Notes Key Takeaways

• Some good news: After you recover from COVID-19, you might be immune from getting or spreading it. 
  • A study showed that macaque monkeys could not get reinfected after they recovered from the virus
• Factors that increase the chance of death from contracting the coronavirus: smoking, hypertension, renal disease, and obesity
  • Michael Osterholm believes the case fatality rate in the US will be 1-2.5% 
• The virus found in a throat swab of people showing the very early signs of COVID-19 found that the virus level was 1000x what they see with SARS
  • So even if a person isn’t coughing or sneezing, the higher volume of the virus in the throat means that the virus could be spread just by breathing and pushing out aerosols
• We need to protect health care workers, they need more n95 masks which work better than surgical masks–an n95 mask stops aerosols  
  • “We don’t send our soldiers into war without some kind of protective equipment or without bullets in their guns…We send healthcare workers into this viral battle and we’re going to be sending them in without bullets or without protective equipment.” – Michael Osterholm
• Two things to remember:
  •  “This is real and more people are going to know somebody in the next couple of weeks that are going to be seriously ill or die” – Michael Osterholm
  • “We’re going to get through this”

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org

In this episode, Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, provides an overview on the COVID-19 pandemic in regards to what has happened to date, what we’ve learned about how the disease spreads, and his optimism and pessimism about what potentially lies ahead. Michael gives his take on the true case fatality rate, why it differs around the world, and which underlying conditions, such as obesity, impact risk of severe illness and death. We also discuss the outlook regarding vaccines, repurposed drugs/antivirals for treatment, and Michael’s growing concern about supply chain limitations with respect to drugs, vaccines, n95 masks, and testing kits.

We discuss:

• Recapping the brief history of COVID-19 and what potentially lies ahead [2:15];
  
• Some positive news about immunity and reinfection [10:45];
  
• Case fatality rate—The challenge in finding the true rate, difference by country, and the impact of age, underlying conditions, and obesity [13:00];
  
• What has to be true for less than 100,000 Americans to die from COVID-19? [24:30];
  
• How do we best protect healthcare workers? [29:45];
  
• Concerns about testing capability—Reagent shortfall and a supply chain problem [39:30];
  
• Vaccines and antivirals—The outlook, timing, and challenges [47:45];
  
• Long term health of survivors of COVID-19 [56:45];
  
• The impact of comorbidities—Diabetes, obesity, and immunosuppressed patients [59:30];
  
• Understanding R0 and how the disease spreads [1:01:30];
  
• The challenge of forecasting with so many unknown [1:08:00];
  
• What explains the difference in cases and fatalities in different parts of the world? [1:14:30];
  
• Repurposed drugs/antivirals being considered for treatment options—any optimism? [1:16:45];
  
• A parting message from Michael about what lies ahead [1:18:30]; and
  
• More.

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