35 West

No dia 2 de Outubro, o povo brasileiro votou no primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais. Por mais que nenhum candidato tenha conseguido uma maioria total, o Presidente Jair Bolsonaro e o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, que ganharam respectivamente 43 e 48% dos votos válidos, irão para o segundo turno.

Nessa semana, Ryan C. Berg conversará com Thiago de Aragão, um senior associate no CSIS e diretor de estratégia na Arko Advice. Juntos, eles analisam os resultados da eleição, discutem as razões por trás da surpreendentemente pequena margem entre Lula e Bolsonaro e os principais erros das pesquisas, e o que podemos esperar até o segundo turno. Eles também discutem a parceria dos Estados Unidos com o Brazil, um dos principais aliados americanos no hemisfério, e o futuro da política estrangeira estado-unidense com o Brasil independentemente do próximo presidente.

On October 2, Brazilians voted in the first round of the country’s presidential elections. While no candidate secured a majority of the vote that would allow them to claim victory immediately, both incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva emerged as clear frontrunners, receiving approximately 43 and 48 percent of all votes cast respectively.

This week, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Thiago de Aragão, a senior associate with CSIS and director of strategy at Arko Advice, a political risk analysis firm based in Brazil. Together, they unpack the election results, why some polls significantly underestimated the margin of support for Bolsonaro and Lula, and what to expect as the election heads towards a run-off. They also discuss the importance of Brazil as a strategic partner of the United States and keystone country in the hemisphere, and weigh in on U.S. foreign policy options for Brazil no matter who emerges as the next president.

On September 4, Chileans took to the polls for a constitutional referendum that saw a highly progressive draft constitution overwhelmingly rejected, with 62 percent voting against, and just 38 percent in favor. The outcome is a setback for the Boric government, which has tied itself to the constitutional reform project, and promises to lengthen an already long-running process.

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Patricio Navia, Professor of Liberal Studies at New York University and Professor of Political Science at Universidad Diego Portales in Chile. Together, they unpack why the referendum resulted in a significant win for the "reject" campaign despite high levels of support for a new constitution in general. They also analyze the implications of the vote for the Chilean government, options for re-drafting a constitution, and what lessons can be learned from the referendum for the region as a whole.

China has significantly expanded its presence throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, elevating worries that the democratic traditions of the Western Hemisphere could be at risk. However, the types of engagement China pursues and the consequences they present are often poorly understood, leading to misunderstandings between Washington and the region.  

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Pepe Zhang, associate director and fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center. Together they break down the various economic, political, and institutional ways China has pursued a closer relationship with Latin American and Caribbean countries. They also sketch the contours of a U.S. strategy for addressing China's engagement in the hemisphere, and argue that the United States to put the needs of the region first for such a strategy to be effective.

Nicaragua’s descent into authoritarianism has had far-reaching humanitarian, economic, and diplomatic consequences. One lesser-understood dimension of this crisis has been the growing reliance of the Ortega-Murillo regime on extra-hemispheric authoritarian states to help cement its hold on power in the face of both international and domestic pressures.

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, and a Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program. Together, they discuss how Nicaragua has cultivated alliances with autocratic regimes around the world, including Russia, China, and Iran, in addition to like-minded regimes within the hemisphere. They also discuss options for the United States and allies to push back against these global authoritarian networks and increase pressure on the Ortega-Murillo regime.

En este episodio especial en español Ryan C. Berg se sienta a conversar con Valeria Moy, directora general del Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad, uno de los centros de investigación más reconocido en México.

Ellos conversaron sobre el estado del sector digital en México y los desafíos para el acceso seguro y fiable a Internet para todos. Aunque México tiene potencial significante en el espacio digital, el sector de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) sufre de prácticas anticompetitivas. Además la conversación se centró del estado más amplio de las relaciones económicas entre México y Estados Unidos, incluso el T-MEC y Diálogo Económico de Alto Nivel.

In this special Spanish-Language episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Valeria Moy, Director General of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, one of the most well-known think tanks in Mexico.

They discussed the state of the digital sector in Mexico and the challenges to secure, reliable access to internet for all. While Mexico has great potential in the digital space, its Information Communications Technology (ICT) sector is held back by anticompetitive practices. The conversation also focused on broader developments in the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship, including the USMCA and High-Level Economic Dialogue.  

Around the world, democratic institutions have come under siege, while consolidation within and between autocratic regimes has accelerated in recent years. As it becomes increasingly evident that autocrats are following a shared ‘playbook,’ it is of extreme importance that democracies build their own set of shared tactics for promoting civil and political rights, defending electoral integrity, and sustaining rule of law.

In this "best of" episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, the US and the Americas Programme at Chatham House. Together, they outline what the international community can do to push back on rising authoritarianism, and empower democracy defenders. They focus in particular on the case of Venezuela, considering the options available for the opposition, United States, and global democratic community for dismantling Maduro's dictatorial playbook. 

The victory of Gustavo Petro in the recent Colombian presidential elections heralds a political change in Colombia. However, Colombia remains an important strategic partner for the U.S. in the hemisphere, and a new government does not change this fact.

In this episode, Margarita R. Seminario sits down with Peter Natiello, Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Together, Margarita and Peter unpack USAID's longstanding partnership with Colombia, and how the agency plans to work with the Petro’s Administration. They also outline USAID's steadfast contribution to the peace process in Colombia and continued efforts to consolidate peace gains for all Colombians.

In this special Portuguese-language episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Vice-Admiral Alexandre Rabello de Faria, Chairman of the Council of Delegates of the Inter-American Defense Board (IADB). The IADB exists to provide the Organization of American States and its members with technical, advisory, and educational services on issues related to military and defense matters in the hemisphere.

Together, they discuss the work of the IADB and the evolution of its role over the past 80 years. The episode touches upon the importance of a multilateral approach to emerging challenges in the Americas from cybersecurity to disaster relief and attacks on democratic institutions. The conversation also touched upon the Board's global role in responding to threats from malign extra-hemispheric actors as well as work with other multilateral institutions.

A Junta Interamericana de Defesa em um Hemisfério em Mudança

Neste episódio especial em língua portuguesa, Ryan C. Berg senta-se com o Vice-Almirante Alexandre Rabello de Faria, Presidente do Conselho de Delegados da Junta Interamericana de Defesa (JID). A JID existe para fornecer à Organização dos Estados Americanos e seus membros serviços técnicos, consultivos e educação sobre questões relacionadas a assuntos militares e de defesa no hemisfério.

Juntos, eles discutem o trabalho da JID e a evolução de seu papel nos últimos 80 anos. O episódio aborda a importância de uma abordagem multilateral para os desafios emergentes nas Américas, da segurança cibernética  ao alívio de desastres e ataques às instituições democráticas. A conversa também abordou o papel global do Conselho para responder às ameaças de atores malignos extra-hemisféricos, assim como para trabalhar com outras instituições multilaterais.

As the Western Hemisphere works to recover from the ongoing pandemic, adjust to new global economic shocks, and create good-paying jobs and stable livelihoods for citizens, the private sector will play a key role in fostering development. Special Economic Zones, or SEZs represent an important and multifaceted tool for empowering economic development throughout the region, especially as the United States looks to nearshore or "friendshore" key industries. 

In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Greg Huger, Executive Director of the HUGE Business and Investment Council. Together, they discuss the factors that make an SEZ successful not just for attracting and promoting private enterprise, but engaging local communities and national governments. They focus on the role of SEZ operators in the geopolitical space as well, especially in light of China's efforts to export its own SEZ governance frameworks to the region, as well as the U.S. commitment to support economic rebuilding in Central America at the Summit of the Americas.

The upcoming Summit of the Americas ought to be an important venue for the United States and the region to align responses to shared challenges and strengthen hemispheric cooperation. Nevertheless, the summit is already struggling to live up to this potential, facing criticism that the current agenda downplays the concerns voiced by the region, as well as recent threats by several countries including Mexico, Bolivia, and Honduras to boycott the event.

In this episode, Juan Cruz, Senior Adviser and Director of the CSIS Argentina-U.S. Strategic Forum, sits down with Dr. Francisco de Santibañes, Vice President of the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), one of the most prominent Argentine foreign policy think tanks. Together, the two discuss prospects for the summit and share a south-to-north perspective on the key issues that should be on the table, but have not received sufficient attention in summit coverage. These include the importance of infrastructure investments for the region, the growth of the digital economy, and the role educational and scientific exchanges play in bonding the hemisphere together.