Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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In this episode, I'm joined by Jaime Sevilla, founder of Epoch AI; Hannah Petrovic from my team at Exponential View; and financial journalist Matt Robinson from AI Street. Together we investigate a fundamental question: do the economics of AI companies actually work? 

We analysed OpenAI's financials from public data to examine whether their revenues can sustain the staggering R&D costs of frontier models. 

The findings reveal a picture far more precarious than many assume; we also explore where the real infrastructure bottlenecks lie, why compute demand will dwarf energy constraints, and what the rise of long-running agentic workloads means for the entire industry. 

Read the study here: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/inside-openais-unit-economics-epoch-exponentialview

We covered: 

(00:00) Do the economics of frontier AI actually work? 

(02:48) Piecing together OpenAI's finances from public data 

(05:24) GPT-5's "rapidly depreciating asset" problem 

(13:25) Why OpenAI is flirting with ads 

(17:31) If you were Sam Altman, what would you do differently? 

(22:54) Energy vs. GPUs; where the real infrastructure bottleneck lies 

(29:15) What surging compute demand actually looks like 

(33:12) The most surprising finding from the research 

(38:02) The race to avoid commoditization 

(43:35) Agents that outlive their models 

Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Where to find Jamie: https://epoch.ai or https://epochai.substack.com 

Where to find Matt: https://www.ai-street.co 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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A week before OpenClaw exploded, I recorded a prescient conversation with Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI and co-founder of DeepMind. We talked about what happens when AI starts to seem conscious – even if it isn’t. Today, you get to hear our conversation.

Mustafa has been sounding the alarm about what he calls “seemingly conscious AI” and the risk of collective AI psychosis for a long time. We discussed this idea of the “fourth class of being” – neither human, tool, nor nature – that AI is becoming and all it brings with it.

Skip to the best bits:

(03:38) Why consciousness means the ability to suffer

(06:52) "Your empathy circuits are being hacked"

(07:23) Consciousness as the basis of rights

(10:47) A fourth class of being

(13:41) Why market forces push toward seemingly conscious AI

(20:56) What AI should never be allowed to say

(25:06) The proliferation problem with open-source chatbots

(29:09) Why we need well-paid civil servants

(30:17) Where should we draw the line with AI?

(37:48) The counterintuitive case for going faster

(42:00) The vibe coding dopamine hit

(47:09) Social intelligence as the next AI frontier

(48:50) The case for humanist super intelligence

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Where to find Mustafa:

- X (Twitter): https://x.com/mustafasuleyman

- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mustafa-suleyman/

- Personal Website: https://mustafa-suleyman.ai/

Where to find me:

- Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/

- Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar

- Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd. Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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At Davos 2026, the mood was unlike any previous World Economic Forum gathering. With Donald Trump arriving amid escalating geopolitical tensions and European leaders sounding alarms about sovereignty, I recorded live dispatches from the ground. In this special episode, I bring together observations from four days at the annual meeting, tracking the seismic shifts in global order alongside the practical realities of AI adoption in the enterprise.

Skip to the best bits:

(00:38) Day one at Davos

(02:10) Three recurring themes through the week

(03:55) Day three at Davos

(05:12) Mark Carney's stirring speech

(05:52) Why European leaders are sounding the alarm

(06:51) Why technological sovereignty just became urgent

(09:31) Day four at Davos

(12:59) What leaders really have to say on AI adoption

(14:07) The case for only using open source models

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

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In this episode, Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic, unpacks the company's new Economic Index report. His team analysed millions of real Claude conversations to map exactly where AI is augmenting human work today and where it isn't. We explore the striking divergence between API and chat usage, why businesses need to extract tacit knowledge to unlock AI's potential, the "hollow ladder" risk for junior workers, and Anthropic's estimate that AI could add 1.0-1.8% to annual productivity growth over the next decade.

Skip to the best parts:

(00:00) Anthropic's Economic Index report

(01:20) Claude's two distinct usage patterns

(06:22) Examining AI's impact on the labor market

(09:20) Where most businesses think too small

(12:03) Why extracting tacit knowledge is so important

(20:33) How do we create the next generation of experts?

(23:22) Why people need to develop cognitive endurance

(29:55) Long-term vs. short-term productivity

(35:56) The future of human knowledge

(37:46) Could AI's greatest impact go unmeasured?

(41:55) How task bottlenecks have moved

(46:09) Implementation resembles a staircase - not a curve

(50:47) "Capability doesn't instantly deliver adoption"

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Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, I share my outlook for 2026 and explain why AI tools now feel genuinely different. I explore how the act of making has been transformed, why authenticity and meaning will become the new scarcity, and whether the foundations of energy and capital can hold. I also address the question I was asked most in 2025: when will the AI bubble burst? 

Skip to the best bits: 

00:00 Why AI feels different in 2026 

01:59 The six shifts in AI 03:32 The "done list" era 

06:43 From execution to orchestration 

09:02 The agentic coding revolution 

11:10 What's a Chief Question Officer? 

13:58 Three ways value will be created 

16:27 "Claude told me to use ChatGPT" 

18:02 The AI usage gap 

20:30 The new moat in 2026 

26:10 How does solar growth affect AI? 

28:53 Revisiting the bubble or boom question 

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Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. 

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and I discuss how a strong US economy, high asset valuations, and rapid AI adoption are sitting in uneasy tension. We explore what past technology cycles can teach us, why safety nets struggle to address disruption, and where genuine optimism still makes sense. 

This is a January 2025 rerun, which remains strikingly relevant today. 

We covered: 

(01:09) State of the US economy 

(02:28) "That end of 1999 feeling" 

(05:08) Insights and lessons from the dotcom bubble 

(09:57) Why today's market is different 

(13:44) Understanding AI's role in labor displacement 

(16:05) Are LLMs "souped-up autocorrect"? 

(20:14) How job displacement erodes communities 

(23:40) 2025's looming threat of tariffs 

(26:16) AI's surprising impact on globalization 

(30:15) Can markets address inequality? 

(33:06) The maximum level of sustainable national debt 

(36:31) When should the Fed raise interest rates? 

(38:57) The need to revitalize local economies 

(44:53) Did Paul's 2025 predictions come true? 

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Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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What made 2025 special? 

In this episode, I reflect on the past year and what it revealed: a K-shaped divide. On one track, AI models are now doing hours of high quality work, improving at exponential pace, and shifting how we work from doing to judging. On the other, organisations and the broader economy are struggling to keep up. Stay to the end for my seasonal film recommendation. 

I cover:

(00:00) Intro 

(00:45) The state of tool usage in 2025 

(6:10) The gap between AI progress and organizational adoption 

(9:53) AI’s shockingly rapid revenue growth 

(11:17) The biggest mistake smart people make with AI 

(14:14)  The inescapable need for physical infrastructure 

(16:06) What everyone was asking in 2025 

(18:08) The new winners of the AI economy 

(20:48) Why “K” is the letter of 2025 

(24:08) Seasonal movie recommendation 

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Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, I’ve distilled a year of extraordinary dialogue into one 20-minute briefing. I’ve spent 2025 in conversation with the architects of our future - the builders and thinkers redefining AI, energy, and the global economy.

These are the "eureka" moments from my most exclusive interviews. From the future of "protopia" with Kevin Kelly to the hidden tech gaps with Dan Wang, this is your strategic roadmap for the exponential age.

What you'll hear about:

Part 1: AI as a general purpose tech

• Kevin Weil: The heuristic for startups
• Matthew Prince: The “Socialist” pricing debate
• Tyler Cowen: This will stifle the AI boom
• Nick Thompson: The "NBA-ification" of Journalism
• Kevin Kelly: From utopia to protopia
• Kevin Kelly: Technology as a "possibility factory”

Part 2: How work is changing

• Steve Hsu: The future of education
• Thomas Dohmke: The inspectability turning point
• Ben Zweig: The new role for entry-level workers
• Ben Zweig: Why are there so many hiring freezes?
• Ben Zweig: The eroding signal of higher education

Part 3: The physical world, compute, and energy

• Greg Jackson: The "crossing the road" metaphor
• Greg Jackson: Building a “show don’t tell” company
• Dan Wang, The "physical reality" of AI
• Part 4: The changing US China landscape
• Dan Wang: The West’s hidden tech gap
• Jordan Schneider: The two types of accelerationism
• Jordan Schneider: Why the US can learn from China

Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov and Hannah Petrovic

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, I look at the next 24 months of AI. The technology is improving rapidly – so what could hold back widespread transformation of how we work and live? I dig into the real constraints, from electricity shortages to institutional inertia, why mid-2026 matters for enterprise AI, and why so many people remain uneasy about a technology they use every day. 

I cover: 

(00:03) Predicting AI's next two years 

(01:50) How life changing are chatbots, really? 

(03:36) Our current biggest AI constraint 

(07:58) The remarkable increase in token efficiency 

(10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point 

(13:01) Do we actually want AI in our lives? 

(15:28) Should organizations wait to jump in? 

(16:39) How is OpenAI reckoning with Gemini? 

(18:41) The market's reaction to OpenAI's code red 

(19:32) Where will value accrue in the supply chain? 

(20:51) What's the best strategy for middling powers?

Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. 

Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. 

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this podcast or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

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In this episode, I reflect on the third anniversary of ChatGPT's launch as a marker of where we are in the exponential age. As a product, ChatGPT captures the speed of technological progress, the new behaviours emerging around it and the widening gap between innovation and institutional change – all symptomatic of the era I called the exponential age in my 2021 book.

 I cover: 

(00:09) How ChatGPT became synonymous with AI 

(01:41) The rise of the reasoning model 

(03:53) Why NVIDIA's chip cycle is exponential 

(05:53) How general-purpose tech changes everything 

(07:59) The subtle power of building bespoke software 

(11:46) The iPhone calculation that breaks everything 

(14:53) Who profits from a general-purpose technology? 

(16:38) The software market example 

(20:07) Are we headed towards another .com crash? 

Where to find me: 

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ 

Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ 

LinkedIn: /azhar 

Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem 

Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 

Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov.

About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.

To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or the newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
To keep up with our AI economy research, subscribe to https://www.investmentbrief.ai/

Where to find me:

Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azeem/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem

Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.