US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?
https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdf

MSCI The CDS Market’s View on US Default
https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801

Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Cents
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credit

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU