Derisky Business

Tobias Gehrke joins Emily and Geoff to debrief on the latest news on EU-China trade tensions. They discuss the EU-China deal on hybrid vehicles, the potential for further escalation between Brussels and Beijing, and why increasing alignment on concerns over China probably won’t lead to better U.S.-EU cooperation–even though it really ought to.

Energy expert Francisco Monaldi joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the U.S. government’s unusual oil deal in Venezuela. They get into the decades of missteps and corruption that have hampered Venezuela’s oil sector, the deep seated institutional changes that would be needed to bring production back to historical levels, and why you probably shouldn’t assume the contract the U.S. government just signed will actually last 100 years, as it says on paper.

Francisco Monaldi, Baker Institute for Public Policy

James Crabtree joins the podcast to discuss the new CNAS report he co-authored with Emily, Whither the Coalition? Assessing the Prospects of a Diverse Sanctions Coalition in Defense of Taiwan. Geoff, Emily, and James discuss the prospects of India, Singapore, and Germany joining the United States in a possible future Taiwan contingency scenario, including the political and economic constraints each country would weigh in making such a decision.

Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons of JPMorganChase join Emily and Geoff to talk about their recent report on U.S.-China AI competition and what policymakers miss when they only look at the latest AI model benchmarks. They get into the latest uproar over (yet another) capable Chinese AI model, what U.S. industrial policy for AI should look like, and how capital can be allocated amidst rapid technological change and massive geopolitical uncertainty.

Paul Haenle is Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific (APAC) Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at JPMorganChase, where he leads strategy and external engagement on policy issues critical to the firm’s global competitiveness, including trade and investment, supply chains, technology, and infrastructure. 

Terah Lyons is currently a Managing Director and the Global Head of AI and Data Policy at JPMorganChase, where she bridges the Chief Data and Analytics Office and Global Government Relations as a member of both executive teams, drives the company's global strategy, engagement, and positioning on AI, data, and digital policy issues, and support's the Firm's AI governance and responsible AI strategy. 

Disclosure: Separate from this podcast, JPMorganChase is a financial supporter of CNAS. As with all of our supporters, we maintain strict intellectual independence and editorial discretion in our research products, including our podcasts. More information on our intellectual independence policy can be found on our website.

Christopher Miller, Chip War

Neil Shearing, The Fractured Age: How The Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy

David A. Gantz and Tony Payan, The Future of Trade: A North American Perspective

Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Economic Security in North America: Recommendations for USMCA Review, December 3, 2025

Jamie Tronnes and Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,” National Review, June 12, 2026

Emily Kilcrease, “Statement for Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Hearing on Section 301 Investigations into Structural Excess Capacity,” May 5, 2026

Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor issues have become central to the U.S. approach on trade.