All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Podcast Notes Key Takeaways

• It’s an end of an era for Big Tech: they’re transitioning from a phase of unfettered growth into their next phase where they must learn to operate like a cash-cow business 
• When the growth engines of Apple and Google slow, other tech companies don’t have to offer competitive compensation, extra benefits, and extravagant workplace environments to compete for talent as they once did 
• “Nobody is talking about a soft landing anymore. In fact, I think we’re all wondering who is flying the plane.” – David Sacks on the Federal Reserve 
• Financial markets have always had a “Fed Put”, which is a level of pain that is reached that forces the Federal Reserve to step into the market and be a buyer of last resort 
• “The investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they’ll have the most asymmetric upside.” – Chamath Palihapitiya 
• The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the last two administrations, printed $10 trillion over the last couple of years which has caused inflation to soar 
• There is $300T of global debt; if interest rates increase from 0% to 5%, that’s an increase of $15T in annual debt service, which is 18% of global GDP 
  • Chamath sympathizes with Friedberg’s concerns over global debt but thinks perpetual bailouts will continue to negate the consequences of rising debt levels 
• The rate-setting process should leverage more of today’s technology; humans setting the rate in quarter-percent increments every couple of weeks seems archaic to Friedberg 
• “If you have these irrational central bankers that are willing to constantly bail people out, you will never get a high-functioning government because the policy is irrelevant.”– Chamath Palihapitiya 
• Europe slept-walked its way into WWI in 1914, which is something David Sacks thinks the United States could be doing today 
• David’s primary gripe inShould America Go All In On Ukraine is the U.S. media’s narrative that “Putin is bluffing”; we cannot know that he is definitely bluffing, and the stakes of being wrong are too high  
• Wealthy and powerful people in the U.S. might begin to put political pressure on their representatives to resolve the Russia-Ukraine issue because of the strain the conflict has placed on the markets and their portfolios 
• “I think that the markets would have reacted much much more negatively to a nuclear incident three months ago than now, and may not even react as much as we think it would three months from now.” – Chamath Palihapitiya on Sept. 30, 2022

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org

0:00 Bestie intros!

1:36 Big tech starts making cuts, plus what this means for the broader economy and startups

31:09 Global debt numbers, Fed incompetency

54:06 RIP Coolio

1:00:30 Russia / Ukraine update

Follow the besties:

https://twitter.com/chamath

https://linktr.ee/calacanis

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/meta-announces-hiring-freeze-warns-employees-of-restructuring

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/stanley-druckenmiller-sees-hard-landing-in-2023-with-a-possible-deeper-recession-than-many-expect.html

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NFLX:NASDAQ

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/if-youre-going-to-build-something-from-scratch-this-might-be-as-good-a-time-as-in-a-decade

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/05/11/billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-blasts-feds-radical-stimulus-policy-warns-it-risks-stock-bubble-blowing-up

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/cnbc-transcript-duquesne-family-office-chairman-ceo-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-joe-kernen-live-during-the-cnbc-delivering-alpha-conference-today.html

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M

https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemp-per-job-opening.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-nation-of-quitters-great-enabling-exodus-working-age-men-parents-stimulus-covid-quit-retirement-bohemian-videogame-11664112795

https://goop.com/subscribe

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-host-kremlin-ceremony-annexing-parts-ukraine-2022-09-29

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-applying-nato-membership-2022-09-30

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabotage-whos-being-blamed-why-2022-09-30

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/former-polish-foreign-minister-thanks-us-for-damaging-nord-stream-pipeline/2696530

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/should-america-go-all-in-on-ukraine