What happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations

(02:28) - Geopolitical Analysis: Russia and Ukraine

(06:19) - Strategic Insights: Ukraine's Tactical Moves

(09:16) - European Union and Ukraine Relations

(14:36) - Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios

(18:43) - Economic and Political Implications

(32:38) - European Unity and Putin's Miscalculations

(34:21) - European Sentiment on Russia

(34:55) - Middle East Geopolitical Updates

(37:23) - Gen Z Protests Around the World

(41:31) - Generational Politics in the US

(48:44) - AI's Economic Impact

(01:08:02) - Debating the Future of AI and Marketability

(01:08:37) - Nostalgia and the Evolution of Computer Games

(01:10:03) - The Shift in Consumer Preferences

(01:11:52) - AI's Impact on Future Job Markets

(01:14:50) - US vs China: Different Approaches to AI

(01:15:42) - The Role of Tech Companies in AI Development

(01:26:31) - The Overbuild of Data Centers and Energy Needs

(01:30:28) - The Myth of AGI and True Innovation

(01:37:59) - Concluding Thoughts on AI and Innovation

--

Referenced in the Show:

AI Will Not Make You Rich — https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline

(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine

(05:06) - The Impact of Drone Warfare

(11:59) - Russia's Strategic Vulnerabilities

(20:44) - Historical Context and Modern Implications

(26:30) - The Future of Russian Aggression

(45:37) - Debating Predictions and Hot Takes

(46:39) - American Foreign Policy and Trump's Role

(50:33) - H-1B Visa Controversy

(52:47) - The Impact on US-India Relations

(56:19) - The Role of Immigration in American Greatness

(01:05:45) - Jimmy Kimmel and Cancel Culture

(01:18:05) - Concluding Thoughts on Media and Politics

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Pokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering political tensions.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:07) - Banter

(03:00) - Trivia

(09:58) - The Charlie Kirk Assassination Discussion

(12:13) - The Crisis of Manliness and Societal Impacts

(21:00) -Historical Context and Modern Parallels

(33:49) - Global Perspectives and Extremism

(46:11) - Political Turmoil in Asia

(46:47) - Charlie Kirk and Social Media Impact

(48:10) - Historical Reflections on Evil

(52:10) - Personal Anecdotes on Racism and Segregation

(53:35) - US Education Crisis and Ignorance

(57:33) - Civil Wars and State Capacity

(01:04:05) - Brazil's Political Drama: Bolsonaro's Trial

(01:17:27) - Geopolitical Tensions: Venezuela and Beyond

(01:21:10) - China's Moves in the South China Sea

(01:21:54) - Russia's Probing Tactics in Europe

(01:30:53) - Concluding Thoughts and EuroBasket Update

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk

(02:22) - Political Violence in the US

(07:32) - Social Media's Role in Political Discourse

(17:29) - Poland and Russia Tensions

(33:13) - Israel's Attack on Qatar

(38:47) - Nation Building and Israeli Politics

(39:47) - Israel's Shift from Plausible Deniability

(40:20) - Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza

(40:52) - The Hubris of Israeli Strategy

(44:07) - The Impact on Israel's Brand

(50:16) - Nepal's Gen Z Uprising

(52:14) - Indonesia and South Asian Instability

(59:04) - Argentina's Economic Challenges

(01:09:07) - Trump's Tariffs and Legal Battles

(01:17:17) - Conclusion and Future Topics

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back

(00:11) - Jacob's Health and Listener Comments

(02:17) - Vaccine Mandates and Public Health

(04:03) - Florida and Personal Anecdotes

(05:09) - Podcasting and Media Industry Insights

(07:20) - AI's Impact on Talent and Content Creation

(11:14) - Political Landscape and Aging Leaders

(17:30) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Multipolarity

(30:44) - China's Foreign Policy and Taiwan

(33:02) - US-India Relations and Recent Developments

(40:37) - Venezuela and US Military Actions

(45:16) - Debating Regime Change in Venezuela

(46:33) - Historical Examples of Regime Change

(48:10) - Trump's Approach to Foreign Policy

(50:28) - Analyzing Trump's Popularity by Issue

(53:56) - Economic Indicators and Future Predictions

(01:00:54) - The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

(01:05:07) - The Role of AI in Rising Electricity Costs

(01:08:02) - Political Landscape and Future Elections

(01:21:10) - EuroBasket and Basketball Insights

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction to the Intellectual Six Pack

(01:34) - Beer Preferences and College Memories

(04:06) - Geopolitical Six Pack Concept

(05:49) - US-EU Trade Deal Analysis

(11:29) - Implications of the Trade Deal

(25:35) - Taiwan's Political Landscape

(38:21) - US Defense Strategy for Taiwan and Ukraine

(41:31) - Trump's Impact on US-India Relations

(47:19) - Trump's AI Strategy and US-China Tech Rivalry

(01:00:30) - Global Geopolitical Dynamics and Forgotten Territorial Disputes

(01:04:58) - Fantasy Basketball Draft Tips

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:18) - Catching Up on Global Events

(01:54) - Deep Dive: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

(03:56) - Trump's Stance on Russia and Ukraine

(06:02) - Putin's Challenges and Strategic Objectives

(09:37) - Potential Outcomes and Strategic Moves

(13:22) - Drone Warfare and Technological Advancements

(25:07) - Trademarking 'Paul Baba Bombadil'

(25:14) - Analyzing the Latest CPI Data

(26:13) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

(27:14) - Political Implications of Inflation

(28:22) - Market Perspective on CPI and Inflation

(31:38) - US Government's Role in Rare Earths

(33:17) - Trump's Trade Policies and Global Impact

(37:21) - Strategic Alliances and Global Trade

(40:54) - Trump's Approach to International Relations

(47:44) - Final Thoughts on Global Trade and Politics

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List

(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback

(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders

(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players

(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders

(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact

(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate

(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders

(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround

(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico

(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership

(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership

(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps

(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures

(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power

(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies

(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style

(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact

(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies

(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies

(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics

(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology

(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30

(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings

(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders

(29:53) - Unproven Gems

(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders

(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure

(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison

(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician

(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician

(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs

(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career

(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa

(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era

(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan

(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney

(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program

(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions

(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios

(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings

(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq

(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity

(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending

(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights

(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO

(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro