Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Ohio and SD Tour Findings
4:36 Brazilian Corn is Expensive?
7:18 USDA Solar/Wind Funding
11:12 Crop Conditions/Progress
13:49 Big Russian Wheat Crop
14:33 Grain Shipments

🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, fresh updates from Brazil, big USDA policy news, and the latest on US crop conditions and exports.

🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings
🚜 South Dakota: Corn yield pegged at 174.2 bpa, up 11% from last year and 21% above the 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 16%. Scouts very impressed—ample summer moisture means record yields possible.
🌱 Ohio: Corn yield estimated at 185.7 bpa, a new record, +1.3% vs last year and +2.9% vs 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 4.7%, but scouts found huge variability due to early/late planting, spring replanting, and summer dryness.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update
🌽 Second corn harvest 94% complete (AgRural).
📈 Conab raised total corn crop estimate to 137 mmt, USDA steady at 132 mmt.
🌱 New 25/26 crop planting 1.6% complete, well ahead of last year.
🚢 Despite big supply, Brazilian corn is $13/ton (33¢/bu) more expensive than US corn on export markets.

⚡ USDA Ends Wind & Solar Support
🛑 USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins announced the end of wind/solar support on farmland.
🌍 USDA argued such projects threaten future farming & food security.
💰 Until now, USDA pumped billions into renewables.
🌾 Only 0.5% of farmland was used for turbines/solar—and most stayed in production.

🌽 US Crop Conditions
Corn rated 71% G/E (down slightly, still 2nd highest in 10 years).
Soybeans steady at 68% G/E, well above average.
🚨 Weak spots: OH, MI, KY, IL.
Corn 3% mature, beans 82% setting pods.

🌾 Wheat Update
Spring wheat 50% G/E (up, but well below avg).
Harvest is 36% complete; winter wheat 94% done.

🌍 Russia raised wheat crop outlook to 85.5 mmt with exports at 42.5 mmt.

🚢 Exports & Sales
Corn exports: 1.1 mmt (down sharply vs last week/year).
Soybeans: 474k mt, mixed but stronger vs last year.
Wheat: 395k mt, near low end.

📢 Flash sale: 124k mt corn sold to unknown buyers for 25/26.

Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and comment 💬 with your thoughts on the Crop Tour results—do you think South Dakota will set a new record this year?

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🌽 Welcome Back!
Some parts of the US Corn Belt have turned very dry over the last two weeks. Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio have seen little to no rain 🌤️. Talk of a "flash drought" is heating up as the forecast stays dry. Temps have run 2–4° above normal, with a cool front expected this weekend. See maps below!

🚜 Crop Tour 🚜
Pro Farmer kicks off its Midwest Crop Tour this week (Aug 18–21). Scouts will travel across 7 states, measuring ear counts, pod counts, and crop health. 🌱 This tour offers the most widely followed, real-time snapshot of US crop potential. Results will be released daily, with final estimates Thursday night. Pete Meyer will join us from the tour later this week!

📉 Corn Market Update
The Dec25 corn contract closed last week nearly unchanged despite a hugely bearish USDA report. 🌾 USDA pegged this year’s corn crop at 16.7B bushels—over 700M above trade guesses. Corn bottomed at $3.92 before closing near $4.05. Export demand is strong, but concerns linger. Big crops often “get bigger,” though not always… See charts below.

🥫 Soybean Crush Record
NOPA’s July report showed a record crush for the month at 195.69M bushels (+5.6% vs June, +7% YoY). 💥 Soybean oil stocks fell to the lowest July level since 2004—just under trade estimates. See charts below!

📊 Fund Activity
CFTC data shows “The Funds” shifted positions last week:
➡️ Sold 6k corn contracts
➡️ Bought 27k soybean contracts
➡️ Sold 9k SRW wheat contracts
Check out the Fund Tracker below 👇

👍 Stay Informed!
Don’t miss a beat on weather, markets, and policy. Subscribe, drop a comment 💬, and share your thoughts on whether this “flash drought” will truly hit soybean yields.

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🌾 USDA’s “Summer of Making Agriculture Great Again” – but are they really helping farmers? 🤔

🚜 Yesterday, USDA dropped a flashy post on X claiming Sec. Rollins is “fighting every day to put farmers first.” The problem? Most recent farm payments were approved before he took office. Meanwhile, biofuel policy is stalled, the China trade war is still hurting soybeans, and US row crop farmers are stuck with sky-high costs & low prices.

📉 Markets Recap:
🌽 Dec25 corn tested early-week lows before late buying brought prices back to even.
🫘 Nov25 soybeans filled their July chart gap but reversed lower.
🌍 China is booking Brazilian beans during the US export window – 12+ million tons already locked in! A 23% tariff keeps US soy uncompetitive, even though we’re $40/ton cheaper without it.

📦 Export Sales:
✅ Corn – 2.05 MMT new crop sales, up 156% from last year, with Mexico leading buyers.
✅ Soybeans – 1.1 MMT sold, but China bought zero.
✅ Wheat – 722,800 MT, South Korea in the lead.

🌦 Weather & Drought:
Corn Belt rains missed the worst drought spots. Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio saw dryness worsen.

Corn in drought: 4%

Soybeans: 3%

Winter wheat: 29%

Spring wheat: 16%

Cattle: 14%

🏭 John Deere Update: Tariffs may cost Deere $600M in 2025 despite beating Q3 earnings estimates. They’re hoping future trade deals & tax policy can help offset the pain.

📢 Flash Sales: Two new US corn deals – 136k MT to South Korea & 132k MT to Spain. New crop sales are up 108% year-over-year!

📊 Charts & analysis in the video – don’t miss it! 🎥
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments – is USDA all talk, or are they actually helping farmers?

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0:00 NCGA Asks for Help
3:45 Soybean Rally
5:44 Green Plains and Blackrock
8:41 Ethanol Production
9:48 US Beef Prices

🌽 Corn Growers Plead for Action — But Are They Asking for the Wrong Thing? 🚜

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is urging lawmakers to boost corn demand through market-based solutions. Their push comes as farmers face rock-bottom prices and a USDA forecast for a record-smashing crop — 16.74 billion bushels, 9% above the 2023 record. NCGA wants Congress to approve year-round E15 sales (potentially adding 457M bushels of demand) and for the Trump administration to fast-track trade deals. But here’s my take — E15 probably won’t move the demand needle much. What we really need? A solid biofuel policy for sustainable aviation fuel — something missing from NCGA’s plan.

🌱 Soybeans on a Tear
Soybean futures rallied for the third day in a row, hitting the highest price since early July. USDA projects soybean acreage down 7% year-over-year, pushing 2025/26 ending stocks to a three-year low.

🏭 Green Plains in Deep Debt
Green Plains has pledged nine of its ten ethanol plants to BlackRock for a debt extension. The company faces oversupply issues, weaker demand, and failed diversification. Their new hope? Carbon capture + updated 45Z tax credits.

⛽ Ethanol Production Rising
Output hit 1.09M barrels/day last week, while stocks fell to the lowest point this year. Efficiency is improving — more than 3 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn today compared to 2.8 in 2015.

🥩 Beef Prices to Climb in 2026
USDA sees beef supplies dropping to the lowest since 2019, with herd rebuilding and tariffs on Brazil tightening supplies further.

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0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop
5:07 BIG Acreage Changes
7:13 Soybean Rally
10:46 Cargill Revenue Down
12:47 Stock Market Rally
14:38 Corn Flash

🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉

The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉

🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage Update
New FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later.

🫘 Soybean Surprise
Soybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈

🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain Markets
Cargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units.

📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI Data
July CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%.

🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
US exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽

👍 Like, comment, and subscribe for the latest in grain markets, ag policy, and market-moving data! 🌾📈

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0:00 US/China/Soybeans
2:33 USDA Preview
4:56 Brazil Corn Update
8:34 Crop Progress / Conditions
11:36 Strong Corn Shipments Again

🌎 Tariff Truce Extended & Soybean Rally! 🌱📈

On Monday, President Trump extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days — just hours before massive tariffs were set to return. Without the deal, Chinese imports to the US would’ve faced a 145% tariff, and China would’ve slapped a 125% tariff on US goods 🚢💥.

📣 In a Sunday night Truth Social post, Trump urged China to quadruple its US soybean purchases. While no fresh buying has been confirmed, soybean futures rallied nearly 24¢ Monday, with the Nov25 contract settling near $10.11/bu. However, prices are trading softer early this morning.

📊 USDA Report Day 🌽🌾
The Crop Production & WASDE report drops at 11am CST!
Corn yield & production → traders expect a big jump amid stellar crop ratings.
Soybeans → yield seen ticking higher.
Wheat → US carryout likely lower, but world numbers mostly steady.

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Update 🌽

88% of Brazil’s second-crop corn harvested (behind last year’s pace).
AgRural pegs total corn crop at 136.3mmt (record!).
Farmer selling slow ➡️ prices high ➡️ US staying competitive.

🌱 Crop Conditions
Corn: 72% G/E (2nd-best in 10 years for this week) 👍
Soybeans: 68% G/E, still above 5-year avg 📈
Spring Wheat: 49% G/E (up 1% from last week)
Winter Wheat: 90% harvested ✅

🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.5mmt (↑16% vs. last week, ↑51% YoY)
Soybeans: 519k mt (↓18% WoW, ↑48% YoY)
Wheat: 365k mt (near low end of expectations)

📺 Stay Tuned!
✅ Subscribe for real-time USDA breakdowns, grain market updates, and trade news.
💬 Drop your thoughts below—will China actually buy the beans?

#Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #USDA #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #BrazilCorn #FarmNews #AgUpdates

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0:00 Trump Comments, Soybeans Surge
2:40 Trump and Farm Economy
7:47 StoneX Yield Conspiracy
10:11 The Funds and Corn
12:12 USDA Preview
14:24 Food Prices Rise

🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈

Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight!

📰 Trump & the Farm Economy
A recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs.
📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪.

📊 Fund Tracker
Funds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts)
Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024
Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k)

📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes Expected
Traders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten.

🌍 Global Food Prices Climb
The FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs.

🚨 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year.

👍 If you follow grain markets, subscribe for daily updates & drop your thoughts in the comments!

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0:00 Brian's Charts
3:15 Big Corn Sales
7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit
9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop
13:49 China Pig Plan
15:57 Nutrien
18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next

🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍

🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales!
US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix!
👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations
👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week

🚨 Record Ag Trade Deficit
For the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall
📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019
📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globally

Drought Monitor Update
USDA's weekly drought map is out:

Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High Plains
New drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY
📉 Current drought by crop:
Corn: 3%
Soybeans: 3%
Winter Wheat: 30%
Spring Wheat: 35%
Cattle: 13%

🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog Herd
China plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head
Cash hog prices are down 30% YoY
📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters
🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here

🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still Strong
Nutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure
🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand
📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales
📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season

🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts Rates
The BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years
📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024
⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split
📈 Inflation still high (4%)
📉 Labor market softening
🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slow

Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally?
👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell 🔔 for weekly market insights that cut through the noise.

#GrainMarkets #CornExports #USDA #DroughtMonitor #TradeDeficit #Soybeans #Fertilizer #BOE #China #AgNews #FarmEconomics

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0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern)
3:15 Wheat Update
5:03 Soybean Update
7:08 New COVID Strain
8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer
11:02 Ethanol Production

🌽 Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling 🌧️📉
Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff — this week’s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Let’s dig in👇

🌦️ 🌽 Corn Futures Dip Below $4!
The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time 😬
➡️ Rains across the Corn Belt 🌧️
➡️ Lofty private yield estimates 📈
➡️ Weak Sep/Dec spread 😵‍💫 (farmer "puke" anyone?)
➡️ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values 🇧🇷
⚠️ USDA report on deck Tuesday — average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181

🌾 Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak
🟤 Sep ’25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May
🟡 Nov ’25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff
🌎 Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds 🚫

🦠 New COVID Variant… Again?
A new strain (XFG) is spreading.
➡️ Third most common in the US
➡️ No big red flags 🚫
💭 Worth watching… remember 2020?

🧪 Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13%
Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked 💥
🇺🇸 Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = 💸
📉 US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD

🍺 Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever
🛢️ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd
📉 Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels
💰 Margins improved
🌽 One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015!

📊 🖼️ See all the charts below:
• Monthly SRW Wheat 📉
• Stocks/Use Ratios
• Ethanol Efficiency Gains

👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments!
📬 Stay tuned—Tuesday’s USDA report could move markets in a big way!

#corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville

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0:00 Joe's Resting B Face
1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave
3:28 Argy Meal to China
5:08 ADM Stock Rises
7:47 Farmer Sentiment
9:20 Big Ukraine Crops
10:39 Corn Flash

🌽🔥 Heat, Trade, and Biofuels – Big Moves in Ag This Week! 🌎💥

Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! 👨‍🌾📈 This week’s update is packed with key developments you won’t want to miss! Let’s break it down ⬇️

🌡️ ☀️ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt!
A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3–4°F above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yields—if moisture holds up. What do you think? 🤔

🇨🇳🌱 China Buys Big from Argentina
China’s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of 🇦🇷 soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! 📦 And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! 🔥

🛢️ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead 🚜
Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high 📈—shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term? 

📉 Farmer Sentiment Slips 😕
The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: 🌐 optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction. 

🌾 Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves 🌍
Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise 🚜. 

🚨 USDA Flash Sale (Kind of…)
USDA reported a flash soybean sale—but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! 😅 This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26. 

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