Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
1:01 StoneX Estimates
5:22 Corn Selloff
7:05 Crop Conditions
11:37 Brazil Harvest
12:56 Strong Shipments

🌽📊 StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong 💪

👀 A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer survey… and the numbers are way above USDA’s latest!

🌽 Corn Yield:
🔹 188.1 bpa vs. USDA’s 181.0
🔹 16.32B bushels vs. USDA’s 15.71B

🌱 Soybean Yield:
🔹 53.6 bpa vs. USDA’s 52.5
🔹 4.43B bushels vs. USDA’s 4.34B

These estimates are based on input from StoneX’s grain-buying customers & agronomists 🧑‍🌾📋 

📉 Market Reaction:
Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather 🌤️ and a record Brazilian crop 🌎🌽 are dragging prices down.

🌾 Crop Conditions:
✅ US Corn: 73% G/E – 2nd best in a decade!
✅ US Soybeans: 69% G/E – Highest since 2020
📉 US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E – down for a 3rd straight week
🚜 Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest:
⏳ Behind last year’s pace, but picking up fast!
📦 Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt

🚢 Export Inspections:
🔸 Corn: 1.2mmt (📉 21% WoW)
🔸 Soybeans: 612k mt (📈 130% YoY)
🔸 Wheat: 599k mt (📈 107% WoW)

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market!

#Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics 🌾🌽📈

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0:00 Depressing News
0:40 The Funds are Short
2:52 Heat Wave
4:15 US/China Update
5:56 Meal Update
7:41 Wheat
8:42 Flash Sales

🔥 FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! 🌽🌡️📉

Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! 👇

📊 🧠 Fund Flows:
“The Funds” slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed:
Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts 📉
Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts 😬
Largest soybean short since April 🫘
Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts 🌾

🌞 🔥 Heat Building in the Corn Belt:
Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way:
📅 7-day: +2°F above normal
📅 8–14 day: +3.8°F above normal
🌧️ Slightly below-normal rainfall

🤝 US-China Trade Talks Back On?
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says he’s “optimistic” about a deal ✍️
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Officials met in Stockholm last week
🗓️ Deadline: August 12
👉 But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases 😳

🌎 China Buys Argentine Meal Again
China booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal 🇦🇷
That’s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity
💰 Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% → 24.5%)

🚢 Wheat Export Slowdown
Russia, Ukraine, and the EU — who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports — are off to a slow start:
Russian exports down 30% YoY 📉
Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last year’s volume
Spot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July
📉 All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows

🌽 Flash Sales!
USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday:
352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26

📉 Stock Market Slump
Markets tumbled Friday after weak job data:
Dow -1.2%
S&P -1.6%
Nasdaq -2.2%
👎 Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected
👀 Fed rate cut odds for September just went up
🧨 Trump tariffs also added pressure

👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more market updates every week!

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0:00 Corn Yield Bet
3:31 Export Sales
10:41 Flash Sales
11:50 Wet July
15:26 Cattle Selloff
20:11 US Dollar Rally

🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥

📉 Grains in Motion!
US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌
🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels).
🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average.

🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy!
The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday:
🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia
🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea
❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations
🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria
📦 All for 2025/26 delivery!

🌧️ Corn Belt Drought Fades
The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news:
✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN
📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year!
📌 National Drought Stats:
• Corn: 7% 🌽
• Soybeans: 5% 🌱
• Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️
• Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾
• Cattle: 14% 🐄

📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip?
🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉
Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪

💵 Dollar Roars in July
The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹
✅ Resilient economy
✅ Hawkish Fed
✅ Easing trade tensions
But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon...

👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move!

#Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews 🌽📉📈

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0:00 120mil Soybean Acres
3:38 Soybean Selloff
4:51 Excessive Rain?
7:50 Ethanol Production
8:58 GDP and the Haters

🌱 Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! 🌎💥

🚨 Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT 🤯—well above USDA’s 175 MMT estimate. That’s +8.2% from last year’s record. 🇧🇷🌱 Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. 📈🌽

📉 Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? 👉 Favorable weather 🌧️, weak Chinese demand 🇨🇳, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. 🛑

🌧️ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soaked—over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. ☁️🌦️

⛽ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. 💵🛢️

📊 The U.S. economy is on fire 🔥! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-year—thanks, tariffs. 🏛️ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! 💸🇺🇸

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! 🌽📰💬

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🎥 Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes ⚡🌽💼

Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today — let's get into it 👇

0:00 Derecho Update
3:46 Corn and Soybean Price Action
5:45 Govt Payments??
8:26 Soy Demand Problems (China)
9:30 US/China Talks
10:51 Oil Refiners

🌪️ Midwest Storms Cause Chaos
Severe storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. 🤔

💨 CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didn’t crush yields either. 🌾

📉 Markets Take Another Hit
Corn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session:
Dec25 Corn: ⬇️ 3¢ to $4.11/bu
Nov25 Soybeans: ⬇️ 2¢ to $10.10/bu
Wheat also dropped:
Dec25 SRW: ⬇️ 9¢ to $5.50/bu
Dec25 HRW: ⬇️ 7¢ to $5.40/bu
Cooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment 📉🌧️

🐖 China Soybean Demand Weakens
China’s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to:
Record early-year imports
Weak feed sector demand
Crushing margins still ugly 😬
Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still — no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. 📊

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks Continue
Trade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. 🤝🕰️

🛢️ Refiners vs. Biofuels
The AFPM is fighting Trump’s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns — but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. ⛽📉

👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more ag + market updates every week!

#StormDamage #GrainMarkets #ChinaSoy #Derecho #Ethanol #TradeTalks #AgNews #CornBelt #Soybeans #FarmingNews #TrumpTariffs

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0:00 Wind Event
3:00 Crop Conditions
7:38 Big Brazil Crop
8:40 US/China Update
10:13 US Dollar
11:08 Grain Shipments
11:52 Flash Sales

🌪️ Severe Storms Rip Through the Northern Corn Belt 🌽⚡
Severe thunderstorms powered by extreme heat and humidity blasted across the Northern Plains and into the northern Corn Belt on Monday evening. 💨 Wind gusts reached an insane 134 mph in northern Iowa, with tornadoes reported in South Dakota and Iowa. Early Tuesday, storms continued in eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Illinois—though the worst winds have calmed. ⚠️ Widespread power outages were reported.
📍 See storm maps below!

📉 Crop Condition Update 🌱
🔹 Corn: 73% rated good to excellent—slightly down from last week but still the 2nd best in a decade!
🔹 Soybeans: 70% rated good to excellent, the best for this time since 2020!
🔹 Spring Wheat: Declines again this week—only 49% rated good to excellent.
🔹 Winter Wheat: 80% harvested nationwide; nearly complete in TX, OK, KS.

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Harvest Lags but Outlook Grows 🌽
Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is behind last year—just 68% harvested vs. 91% this time last year. Despite delays, AgRural raised their total corn production estimate to a record 136.3mmt!
🚜 Dry weather helped boost weekly harvest pace.

🤝 US-China Trade Talks Continue in Stockholm 🥢
Officials met for over 5 hours Monday—no deal yet, but a 90-day truce extension is likely. The US paused some tech export controls to support talks.
🔍 No new Chinese soybean buys yet, but the market expects them soon.
🇨🇳 China could account for ~19% of US soybean demand this year.

💵 US Dollar Surges on Trade Optimism 📈
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.8% on Monday—its biggest move since May. The rally was fueled by the new US-EU trade deal and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week.

🚢 US Export Inspections Surprise to the Upside 📦
✔️ Corn: 1.5mmt inspected—+55% vs. last week
✔️ Soybeans: 409,714mt—near the high end of estimates
❌ Wheat: 288,793mt—well below expectations

📢 Flash Sales Announced! 💼
🗓️ Monday’s USDA report showed big corn sales:
🇲🇽 225,000mt to Mexico (25/26 MY)
❓ 229,000mt to unknown (35k for 24/25, 194k for 25/26)
💰 Markets watching closely as new crop sales ramp up.

📌 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
🧠 Stay informed, stay ahead. More weather, markets, and updates coming your way!

#GrainMarkets #CornBelt #CropConditions #Soybeans #Wheat #USDA

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0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop
2:42 US/EU Trade Deal
4:13 US and China Talks
8:05 The Funds
8:53 Cattle on Feed
11:13 Argentina Taxes
12:09 China Heat
13:27 Flash Sales

🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️
Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉

🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed!
The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:
🔹 15% tariff on EU imports
🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US
🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy
🔹 No new US tariffs on exports
President Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢

🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension Talks
Officials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.
🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!
🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October
🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods
🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞

📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & Wheat
CFTC's latest COT report shows:
🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts
🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts
🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts

🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!
Friday’s report showed:
📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)
📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)
➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?

🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs
President Milei cuts:
🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5%
🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26%
🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5%
🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5%
Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸

🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress Continues
China faces ongoing drought and heat:
🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output
📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year
🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheat
USDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise!

🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update
📢 Big Friday moves:
🇲🇽 Mexico:
• 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)
• 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)
🇰🇷 South Korea:
• 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)
👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!

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0:00 Sun's Out, Guns Out
0:30 Flash Sale Fiasco
2:08 USDA Cuts
5:32 US Weather
9:07 Export Sales
12:40 North Dakota Wheat

📢 USDA FLASH SALES SHAKE UP THE CORN MARKET! 🌽📊

🔥 Big news hit the wire Thursday as USDA reported multiple flash sales of US corn!
💥 135,000mt (5 mil bu) went to South Korea—after an initial (and incorrect) announcement that China was the buyer, sparking a brief rally.
🌍 Another 284,196mt (11 mil bu) of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Export action is heating up!

🏢 USDA RELOCATION PLAN: BIG SHAKEUP IN DC! 🏛️➡️🏞️
The USDA will relocate 2,600+ employees from Washington to cities like Raleigh, KC, Indy, Fort Collins & Salt Lake City.
🏗️ Several DC buildings will be vacated.
📉 Critics warn of reduced agency effectiveness, while supporters say it’ll bring USDA closer to farmers.
📊 This move includes a NASS consolidation, affecting reports on:
🌽 Crop production
📏 Acreage
🐮 Cattle on feed
❄️ Cold storage
🌾 Grain stocks & more!

🌧️ DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE CORN BELT! 🌽💦
💧 Missouri is now entirely drought-free!
🌦️ Heavy rains in IL, IN, KY, and MO improved conditions across much of the Midwest.
📉 Drought by crop area:
Corn: 9%
Soybeans: 8%
Winter Wheat: 31%
Spring Wheat: 43%
Cattle: 15%

🌾 NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT YIELDS MISS USDA TARGETS! 📉
🚜 After 3 days of field surveys, scouts peg ND yields at 49 bpa, far below the USDA’s 59 bpa estimate.
🌦️ Rain helped some areas, but northern drought weighs on the average.
📉 Sep25 spring wheat contract hit new lows this week.

📈 EXPORT SALES SNAPSHOT 🌎
Corn: 📈 643,100mt (25 mil bu) – Rebound from last week!
Soybeans: 📉 160,900mt (6 mil bu) – Down sharply from recent weeks
Wheat: 🚀 712,200mt (26 mil bu) – Blew past expectations!
Top Buyers:
🇲🇽 Mexico (corn)
🇳🇱 Netherlands (soybeans)
🇮🇩 Indonesia (wheat)

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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies Rise
4:57 China Hog Reduction?
6:38 Heat Wave
10:17 North Dakota Wheat Tour
11:27 Ethanol Production

📉 🚨 Farm Bankruptcies Surge
Farm bankruptcies have jumped to their highest level since 2020 📈. With high interest rates, trade war aftershocks 🇨🇳🇺🇸, and slumping export demand, many growers are feeling the squeeze. Total US farm debt is set to hit a record $561.8 billion 💰. While USDA sees higher net income this year, it's largely thanks to government aid 🧾.

🐖 China Cuts Hog Herd & Soymeal Use
China is rebalancing its pork market amid a glut of hogs and falling prices 🐷⬇️. Officials are slashing sow numbers, limiting new capacity, and even pushing alternative protein sources like food waste, insects 🪳, and animal-based proteins 🐟. This is also part of China's move to reduce soybean meal use and lessen dependence on global markets.
🔍 Typical Chinese hog ration: 50–65% corn 🌽, 15–20% soymeal, 5–15% small grains, 5–10% bran/DDGs.

🔥 Corn Belt Heat Dome Persists
A brutal heat dome continues to roast the Corn Belt 🥵. Triple-digit heat indices and warm overnight lows are stressing crops across the region. Relief may not come until next week. Despite the heat, traders seem unfazed—thanks to an otherwise strong growing season 🌱.

🌾 North Dakota Wheat Tour: Mixed Yields
Crop scouts in southern ND pegged hard red spring wheat yields at 50 bpa, down slightly from last year but still above the 5-year avg. Northern fields averaged 47.1 bpa—again lower vs. 2023 but stronger than the 5-year norm. 🌾 Disease risk and wind damage were noted.

⛽ Ethanol Update: Output Slips, Stocks Build
US ethanol production dipped slightly last week, but stocks jumped to 24.44 million barrels 📦. Despite slower output, margins have improved 💹.

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0:00 US/Japan Deal
3:00 Heat Wave, Corn Sweat
5:37 Wheat Sucks
7:52 Coca-Cola Update
8:53 US/China Update
11:12 Meme Stocks / M2

🎥 BIG TRADE DEALS, CORN SWEAT & MEME STOCKS! 🌽📈🇯🇵

🚨 President Trump just dropped a massive trade bombshell — TWO new international deals in one day!
🇯🇵 Japan Deal Highlights:
– 15% tariff on imports
– $550B Japanese investment in the US (Trump decides where it goes!)
– Big wins for US agriculture: 🚜 +75% rice purchases, +$8B in ag imports
– Expanded access for American cars, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, pork & dairy!
🇵🇭 Philippines Deal:
– 19% export tariff to the US
– Details still emerging…

🔥 Meanwhile, it’s HOT out there—and “🌽 Corn Sweat” is making it worse!
A massive heat dome is punishing the eastern U.S., with humidity spiking in the Corn Belt right during pollination. Luckily, forecasts now show a drastic cooldown coming soon. 🌡️🌽

📊 Wheat rallies on smaller harvest expectations from Russia 🇷🇺, Ukraine 🇺🇦, and drought in Canada 🇨🇦.
– SRW & HRW wheat futures up
– Spring wheat climbs near $6.12/bu

🥤 Coca-Cola’s Cane Sugar Comeback?
– Trump praised Coke for ditching HFCS
– A new, premium cane sugar line may launch. 🍬
– But don’t expect big changes to corn demand just yet

🌏 China Trade Truce Extended?
– Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent heading to Sweden for talks
– 90-day tariff pause expires Aug. 12
– Topics: trade balance, oil imports from Russia/Iran, China’s economic reforms

💥 Meme Stocks Return!
– Opendoor & Kohl’s are the new GameStop & AMC
– Retail frenzy is back despite higher rates and no stimulus
– Many asset classes (stocks, real estate, farmland, BTC, gold) hovering near all-time highs 🚀💰
– Is it FOMO… or a bubble? 🫧