Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Monday Selloff
3:07 Trade Stuff
4:33 Corn Yield Prospects
9:23 The Funds
10:21 Grain Shipments
11:15 Flash Sale

📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide on Weather & Trade Letdown 🌽🌦️

Monday brought a sharp sell-off in grain futures, with Dec25 corn falling 🌽 16¢ to ~$4.21 and Nov25 soybeans plunging 🌱 29¢ to ~$10.21. Why the drop? 🌤️ Ideal Midwest weather continues, and traders were let down by no new trade deals from President Trump’s Iowa speech last week. 📉📊

💼 Trump Turns Up the Heat on Tariffs 🇺🇸📑
The President sent tariff warning letters to key trade partners. 📬 Japan & South Korea—major US corn buyers—now face potential 25% tariffs if no deal is reached by August 1. 🌏 Countries aligning with BRICS policies (like 🇨🇳 China and 🇧🇷 Brazil) could face an extra 10% tariff.

🌽 Crop Conditions Shine ☀️
• Corn: 74% good-to-excellent, best early July rating since 2018
• Soybeans: 66% good-to-excellent, best since 2020 (excl. 2023)
Analysts eye above-trend corn yields—potentially 184.6 to 188.2 bpa based on strong early ratings 📈

🌾 Wheat Update
• Spring wheat slips for the 3rd week ➡️ 50% G/E (below avg)
• Winter wheat harvest hits 53%, just under average

💰 Money Flow & Export Buzz 💸
• Funds increased their short in corn (net short: 190k contracts)
• Corn exports: Up 8% week-over-week, +46% YoY 🚢
• Soybean & wheat shipments: Strong, near top end of expectations
• Flash sale: 135,000mt corn to Mexico, spanning two crop years 🇲🇽

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
✅ Subscribe for more grain market insights!

#Corn #Soybeans #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #Wheat #FarmingNews #CropConditions #Exports #USDA #Commodities #GrainFutures #Agriculture 🌽🌎📈

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0:00 No Trade Deals, Markets Tumble
2:07 OBBB and Farmers
3:42 Tariff Deadlines
6:38 Drought/Weather Update
8:23 Record Corn Export Program Possible?
9:50 Russia Slashes Wheat Export Tax
10:57 Flash Sales

🇺🇸 President Trump’s Rally in Iowa: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Signed Into Law! 🚜📉🔥
President Trump took the stage in Des Moines on Thursday, celebrating the passage of his massive new tax and spending bill — claiming it will “Make America Great Again” 🇺🇸💵. While no new trade deals were announced (despite trader hopes), he highlighted 🔻 egg prices, 🔥 US military action in Iran, and ⬇️ border crossings. He also reassured farmers their labor force is safe, though details were thin. 🌽🚫 Corn & soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as trade rumors fizzled out.

📜 What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?
✅ $68.3B in new farm program funding
✅ Higher PLC & ARC reference prices for this crop year
✅ Increased payment limits & lifted income caps
✅ Up to 30M new base acres allowed (2019–2023 history)
✅ $6.3B for crop insurance over 10 years
✅ Expanded premium support for beginning farmers
✅ 🇺🇸 US-only feedstock rule for biofuel tax credits (2026)
✅ 🔁 Extension of 45Z through 2029
✅ ✂️ SAF credit cut from $1.75 ➡️ $1.00/gal
✅ ⛽️ Boost to biomass-based diesel

🛃 Tariff Deadline Extended?
Originally set for July 9, the tariff deadline may be pushed to August 1 for countries still negotiating 🤝. Sec. Bessent says talks with 18 major partners are ongoing — with frameworks announced for 🇬🇧 UK, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇻🇳 Vietnam. Still pending: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇺 EU.

🌧️ Drought Update: Big Improvement!
Thanks to recent rains, drought conditions dropped sharply across the 🌽 Corn Belt and 🌾 High Plains!
🔹 Corn: 12% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 8%
🔹 Winter wheat: 24%
🔹 Spring wheat: 29%
🔹 Cattle areas: 18%

📦 Export Sales Recap:
🔹 Corn: 532,700mt ➡️ ⬇️ 28% vs. last week
🔹 Soybeans: 462,400mt ➡️ ⬆️ 15% vs. last week
🔹 Wheat: 586,000mt ➡️ ⬆️ strong sales led by 🇵🇭 Philippines

📢 Flash Sales Alert:
✔️ 150,000mt corn
✔️ 226,000mt soybeans
✔️ 195,000mt soymeal (spread across 24/25 & 25/26)

🌍 Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to Zero!
🇷🇺 In a surprise move, Russia slashed its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15 to boost weak overseas demand. June wheat exports were just 1.1mmt — a fraction of last year’s volume. Expect volatility in global wheat markets to continue.

📊 See all charts below & don’t miss today’s premium breakdown with Paul Neiffer!
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more critical ag market updates!

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0:00 Trump, Iowa and Trade Deals
4:45 Vietnam/US Trade Deal
6:50 US Weather Update
8:33 Ethanol Production
11:45 Stock Market Records

🎤🇺🇸 President Trump Visits Iowa: Big Trade Talk & Market Moves! 🌽📈

📍 LIVE from the Iowa State Fairgrounds!
President Trump takes the stage tonight at 7:30pm CST as part of the America250 Kick-Off Celebration. In a recent Truth Social post, he thanked Iowans for their strong support over the past three elections and teased major updates on ag trade 👀🚜

🌎 🌾 Global Trade Buzz
Rumors are flying about possible new trade deals with China & India 📈
Speculation alone sent grain markets soaring yesterday
Trump’s Iowa visit may bring 🔥 announcements

🇻🇳 Vietnam Deal Announced!
Trump revealed a new US-Vietnam agreement:
✅ $2B in American ag purchases
✅ Tariff-free entry for US goods
⛔ 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports + 40% on transshipped goods
Vietnam may not be a game-changer like China, but it’s a solid win for US ag 💪

☀️🌧️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook
Near-normal rainfall expected next 7 days
Dry in central/eastern Corn Belt short term
Wetter pattern shifts eastward 8–14 day range
Temps staying 1–4°F above normal = continued heat risk 🌡️

🍻 Ethanol Snapshot
Weekly production: 1.08M bpd (down slightly but still strong)
Stocks high at 24.12M barrels
Margins improved over the past week 💵

📊 Markets React to Trade News
📈 S&P 500 hit record high (+0.5%)
💻 Nasdaq also set new record (+1%)
📉 Dow dipped slightly
Investors eye more trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline
⚠️ ADP data shows surprise job losses — watch today’s jobs report for Fed rate clues!

👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! Will Trump drop trade bombshells tonight?
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates on grain, trade, and markets!

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0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
0:52 190 Corn Yield?
5:40 US Weather
7:28 Big Brazil Corn Crop
9:14 Farmer Sentiment
11:35 Biofuel and Senate

🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥
There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬

🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️
Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin.
🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlook
GFS model = dry in the east
🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler). 

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈
StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT.
🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT.
🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week.

📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May.
🌍 Main concern? Ag exports.
46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income. 
27% believe they’ll help. 


🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️
A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit.
Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎
The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽
👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸

🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️

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0:00 Corn Ratings Improve
3:15 USDA Snoozefest
8:39 US Weather
10:19 Big Brazil Corn Crop
11:44 Cattle and Mexico Border
13:03 Grain Shipments
14:22 Flash Sale

🌽 Crop Conditions Improve! USDA Surprises & Brazil Corn Booms! 🌱

👋 Welcome back! In this update, we’re diving into the latest crop condition ratings, trade surprises from the USDA, weather outlooks, and key developments out of Brazil and the southern US border. Let’s dig in! 🚜📊

🌽 Corn Conditions Climb

National corn rated 73% good-to-excellent 📈 — best since 2020!
Trade expected 70%… surprise!
Only 5% of the crop is poor/very poor 🚫

🌱 Soybeans Steady
66% good-to-excellent, unchanged and above the 5-year average

📉 Futures Pressure
New crop corn flirting with fresh lows this morning as ratings improve…

📋 USDA June 30th Report: Mostly a Snoozer
Corn acres: 95.2M vs. 95.3M est.
Soybean acres: 83.4M vs. 83.5M est.
Corn stocks in line ✅, soy and wheat stocks a touch high

🌤️ Weather Outlook
Dry week ahead, especially for central and eastern Corn Belt 🔥

Western Iowa and Minnesota get the best rain
8–14 day forecast looks wetter 🌧️ (Euro model more optimistic than GFS)
Heat stays for now, but relief may come next week 🌡️

🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Surprise
AgRural bumps total output to 130.6 MMT 🚛
Safrinha corn: record 103.4 MMT
Harvest pace still behind last year (18% vs 49%) ⏳
Big supply, but delays persist…

🐄 Feeder Cattle Border Reopens
USDA starts gradual reopening for Mexican imports 🐮
First port: Douglas, AZ—more to follow
Screwworm progress equals cautious optimism
Market already supported by lowest herd since 1950s 🔥

🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.4 MMT down 9% vs last week, but +65% YoY
Soybeans: 224K MT, soft vs last year
Wheat: 434K MT, strong print! 💪

📦 Flash Sale!
204,000 MT of soybean cake and meal sold to unknown destinations


🧠 Tap into the trends and don’t miss a beat — subscribe for more updates!
💬 What do YOU think the markets will do next? Drop your take in the comments below!

#GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #CropProgress #AgNews #BrazilCorn #Weather #Exports #FeederCattle #FarmingNews 🌽🌾🌎📈

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0:00 Intro
0:40 Corn and Soybean Bounce
2:00 Hot and Dry
3:59 The Funds
6:11 USDA Preview
7:40 Brazil Harvest
8:52 Record-High Stock Market
11:24 Flash Sale

🎥 Corn & Soybeans Bounce Back + USDA Reports & Brazil Harvest Update! 🌽📈🌎

👋 Hey there, grain market watchers! In this video, we’re covering all the BIG moves from Friday’s trade, including a nice rebound in corn and soybean futures, updates from the USDA, and what’s happening with Brazil’s delayed safrinha corn harvest. Let’s dive in! 👇

🌽 Grain Markets Rebound
After tagging multi-month lows earlier this week, Dec25 corn climbed back 6¢ to $4.27/bu, while Nov25 soybeans added ~8¢ to settle near $10.25/bu.
✅ Improved US–China trade sentiment
📉 Weakening US dollar
📊 Stock market rally

☀️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook
The 7-day outlook calls for minimal rain across key US growing areas.
📍 Illinois, southern Iowa, and Indiana especially dry
🔥 Temps expected to run 2.9°F above normal (CropProphet)
🌧️ Long-range models hint at more rain—but will it be enough?

💰 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
"The Funds" are still bearish:
🔻 Sold 6k corn contracts last week
📉 Total of 321k corn contracts sold since mid-April
🌱 Net sellers of 27k soybeans
🌾 Net buyers of 10k SRW wheat

📊 USDA Reports Drop at 11am CST
Planted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks on deck!
🌽 Corn acreage expected slightly higher vs. March
🌱 Soybean acreage likely to rise too
📉 Corn stocks seen down ~7% YoY
📈 Soy stocks up 1%—a 5-year high
🌾 Wheat stocks could be up 20%!

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Delayed
Harvest is way behind:
🕐 Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% last year
🌧️ Wet April/May = soggy fields, high moisture
📦 Slower progress, but record crop of 103.2mmt still expected

📈 Equity Markets Soar
🚀 S&P 500 closes at an all-time high (6,173)
📊 Nasdaq & Dow also post gains
💬 Investors growing used to Trump’s trade strategy
💵 Fed hints at possible rate cuts = bullish sentiment

🫘 Soybean Flash Sale to Mexico!
📦 119,746mt (4 mil bushels) sold
📅 Delivery in 2024/25 marketing year
📈 Soybean sales up 11% YoY so far!

📢 Don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop a comment with your thoughts on the upcoming USDA reports!

🌱 Stay smart. Stay informed. Stay hedged. 💼📉

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🇦🇷 Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry
Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Milei’s temporary cuts—🎯 soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and 🌽 corn from 12% to 9.5%—sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of October’s midterms. 🚜💰 Ag groups are urging an extension.  

🌧️ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt
Last week’s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. 🙌 Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements. 

📊 Drought by Crop: 

• Corn: 16%
• Soybeans: 12%
• Winter Wheat: 20%
• Spring Wheat: 25%
• Cattle Areas: 18%

📉 U.S. Export Sales Dip

• Corn: 741,200mt (29M bu), ↓18% from last week; 🇨🇴 Colombia top buyer. 
• Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), ↓16% weekly but ↑83% vs. 4-week avg; 🇳🇱 Netherlands top buyer. 
• Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), ↓40% from last week; 🇯🇵 Japan top buyer. 

📅 Key USDA Report Coming Monday
The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:

• Slight increases in 🌽 corn and 🌱 soybean acreage
• Corn stocks: ↓7% YoY
• Soybean stocks: ↑1%, 5-year high
• Wheat stocks: ↑20%, 4-year high
   📉 Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report.

 
🇷🇺 Russia’s Banking Sector in Trouble?
Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. 💸
Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system.

🚢 Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn Order

• USDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to 🇪🇬 Egypt for 2024/25.
• Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.

☀️ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet
Rainfall is expected across the 🌽 Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps.
Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. 🌾🌦️

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🇧🇷 Brazil Ups Biofuel Mandates
Starting August 1, Brazil will increase ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%. This move could make Brazil self-sufficient in gasoline for the first time in 15 years. Ethanol mainly comes from sugarcane 🌱, but corn-based ethanol 🌽 is growing fast. About 70% of Brazil's biodiesel is made from soybeans.  

🌧️ Soaking Rains Ahead for Corn Belt
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with precipitation forecast at 152% of normal. The Upper Midwest—especially eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—will get the most rain. Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will also see showers. Temperatures will be warmer in the Eastern Corn Belt and cooler west of I-29. Overall, temps will run about 0.8°F above normal.  

💵 Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Fed Outlook
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers it's tough to predict how tariffs will impact inflation. Despite lower inflation and pressure from President Trump to cut rates, Powell urged caution, citing a strong economy and uncertain trade effects. Some Fed governors support a rate cut as early as July, but Powell warned inflation may rebound later this year. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize high interest rates for increasing government debt costs.  

🛢️ Ethanol Output Slips, But Remains Strong
US ethanol production dipped 2.5% last week to 1.1 million barrels/day but is still up 3.6% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.4 million barrels—well above seasonal norms. That’s up 1.2% from last week and 4.2% from last year. Margins, however, softened slightly, according to Reuters. 📉  

📉 Dollar Drops as Tensions Ease
The US dollar weakened this week following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Falling oil prices also removed a key support for the dollar. With Middle East tensions calming, the greenback’s direction now depends more on domestic data and Fed policy. Markets are currently pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. The Dollar Index is down nearly 10% in 2025, hitting its lowest point since March 2022.

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🕊️ Israel-Iran Truce Holds
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact. 🌙 Overnight calm continues, and international energy traders are closely watching developments. A Financial Times article explains that a symbolic, pre-communicated strike on a U.S. base in Qatar signaled the conflict would avoid damaging Iran’s key oil infrastructure. ⚠️ Fears about the Straits of Hormuz being closed — and disrupting global oil flow — were eased. Iran’s ally, 🇨🇳 China, would’ve been the hardest hit, giving Iran incentive to avoid escalation.

🌽 July Corn Hits New Lows
July corn futures traded to fresh life-of-contract lows Tuesday, breaking through levels not seen since August 2024. 📉 With first notice day approaching Friday, volume is shifting to the September and December contracts. Hedge funds have mostly rolled out, but ~200,000 contracts remain open. The July–September spread remains inverted, and some in the Eastern Corn Belt believe this could flip to a carry amid continued fund selling and ample commercial supplies. 🏦🚜

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Crop Breaks Records
Brazil is on track for a record-large second corn crop at 123.3 MMT, per Agroconsult. That’s 9.2% higher than May’s estimate and nearly 20% more than last year’s output. 🌧️ Favorable weather in April and May — especially in Mato Grosso — is boosting yields by nearly 12%. However, this bumper crop is raising concerns about added pressure on already weak domestic prices and sluggish export demand. 💰📦

🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
USDA reported a big corn sale Tuesday: 630,000 MT (25 million bushels) sold to 🇲🇽 Mexico.
554,400 MT (22M bu) for 2025/26
75,600 MT (3M bu) for 2026/27
📊 This supports demand sentiment but hasn’t turned the tide in weak futures yet.

🌱 Soybean Oil Fills Chart Gaps
Soybean oil has slumped, dragged down by falling NYMEX diesel prices (down 40¢ since Sunday). 📉 It’s now testing chart gaps opened during the recent biofuel euphoria. Traders expect those gaps to fill — notably down to 51.19 in the December contract. Smaller gaps between 53.46 and 53.62 are also being eyed. 📈 Technical traders are positioning cautiously with tight stop-losses around those levels. 🧮

🌤️ Weather Outlook: Warm but Moist
Weather remains mostly non-threatening through early July. ☀️ Both the Euro and GFS models have backed off earlier rain projections, but 6–10-day forecasts still look hot and moist. CropProphet’s 15-day outlook is friendly for soybeans 🌱 and mixed for corn 🌽, with the Upper Midwest benefiting most. However, corn still shows slight downside vs. USDA estimates due to last week’s crop rating drop.

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🌍 Market Surprise: Weakness Despite geopolitics, traders were caught off guard Monday. Despite major geopolitical events over the weekend, markets weakened instead of rallying. Crude oil briefly hit ~$78—the highest since January—but reversed sharply after breaking Friday’s ~$74 close. 🚫📈

With energy markets losing steam, grain futures—linked through biofuels—also fell under pressure. 🌾🔻

🌽 Corn Conditions Dip US corn crop conditions fell for the first time this season: 🔹 70% rated good/excellent, down from 72% last week 🔹 Still above the 5-year average of 64%

Biggest declines: Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska. Outside the Corn Belt: sharp drops in Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. 🌦️

🌱 Soybean Ratings Hold Steady Soybeans remained at 66% good/excellent, above the 63% 5-year average. While most Corn Belt states saw declines, only Michigan and Ohio were below the national average. 🌿✅

🌾 Wheat Ratings Slide Again: Winter wheat: 🔻 49% good/excellent, down from 52% 🔻 Below analysts’ expectations ⚠️ Harvest is at 19%—behind the 28% average.

Spring wheat also declined: 🔻 54% good/excellent vs. 57% last week. 📉 Matches 5-year average but misses expectations Montana and South Dakota trailed the national average. 📊

🚢 Export Summary 📦 Corn: 1.5mmt exported, down 13% vs. last week, but up 28% YoY. 

📦 Soybeans: 192,890mt ▪️ Below expectations ▪️ -14% WoW, -45% YoY

📦 Wheat: 254,782mt ▪️ -34% WoW, -26% YoY

💰 Fund Positions & CFTC Data: Funds grew more bearish on corn: 🔻 Net short increased by 19k to 169k contracts—the most since September. 

Meanwhile: 🟢 Net buyers of 27k soybean and 13k SRW wheat contracts 📉 SRW net short now 74k—the smallest since February. 

Funds were once seen as “indecisive,” but the growing short positions suggest a clear bearish bias. With the CN:CU spread nearly at carry, rolling shorts to Sept becomes cheaper—adding fuel to their stance. 📉📊