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🌽 Crop Estimates Update:

Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.
Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.
Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.

⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:

Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.
Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.

📉 Fund Traders' Position:

Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.
Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.
Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.

📦 USDA Flash Sale:

Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.
Key Numbers:
Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.
Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.
Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.
Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:

Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.
Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.
Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.

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🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:

Minnesota: Corn yield potential was pegged at 164.9 bpa, significantly down from last year and the lowest since 2012. USDA’s projection remains at 185 bpa, unchanged from last year. Excessive rainfall early in the growing season likely contributed to the reduced yield potential. Soybean pod counts were closer to the three-year tour average, showing relatively better potential.
Iowa: Corn yield potential was recorded at a tour-record 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s 185.8 bpa. USDA's recent projection is a record 209 bpa. Soybean pod counts were notably higher than last year and close to the 2010 tour record. USDA projects Iowa’s soybean yield at 61 bpa, up from 58 bpa last year.

🚂 Canadian Rail Strike Update:

Resolution: Workers at Canadian National Railway will return to work today, following government intervention to end the work stoppage. The strike continues at Canadian Pacific Kansas City, but negotiations are ongoing. Rail operations are expected to resume within days, with a full recovery of shipments taking about a week.

🌱 US Export Commitments:

New Crop: US corn and soybean export commitments for the new crop are weaker than average. New crop soybean sales are the worst since 2019, with Chinese purchases being the 3rd worst in the last 10 years. New crop corn export commitments are the 5th worst in the last decade, with no purchases from China.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor:

Conditions: Drought conditions worsened in several key areas:
Corn: 7% affected
Soybeans: 8% affected
Winter Wheat: 45% affected
Spring Wheat: 21% affected
Cattle: 21% affected
Notable deterioration was seen in Ohio, northern Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the western Dakotas. 

🌱 USDA Flash Sales:

Recent Sales:
198,000 mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
110,490 mt (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
105,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Preview: USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm CST. Pre-report estimates expect cattle on feed as of August 1 to be steady compared to last year, with July placements up 3.2% and marketings up 8.1% year-over-year. A report meeting these expectations is likely to be viewed as bearish for the market.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the season progresses! 🌽📈🚂

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0:00 Crop Tour Update
3:30 Rail Strike
6:20 Argentina Acreage Decline
7:29 Ethanol Update
8:30 Flash Sales
9:23 Fed Minutes

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:

Illinois: Corn yield pegged at a record 204.2 bpa, up from last year's 193.7 bpa. USDA’s recent estimate is 225 bpa. Soybean pod counts were impressive at 1,419 per 3x3 plot, up 12% from last year. USDA projects a record soybean yield of 66 bpa, up from 63 bpa last year.
Western Iowa: Strong corn yield potential in west-central and southwest districts, but reduced in the northwest due to early-season rainfall. Soybean potential is similarly strong in the west-central and southwest but weaker in the northwest. USDA forecasts Iowa's corn yield at a record 209 bpa and soybean yield at 61 bpa.

🚂 Canadian Rail Shutdown:

Impact: A lockout of 9,300 workers by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City began last night due to stalled negotiations with the Teamsters union. The shutdown affects 75% of Canada’s exported goods to the US, including grains and fertilizers. Rail operations in the US and Mexico continue, but the shutdown may cause ripple effects.

🌾 Argentina Corn Acreage:

Forecast: Expected to decline by 17% for the 2024/2025 season due to concerns over leafhoppers and dry conditions. The Buenos Aires grains exchange has already reduced its estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop by 10 mmt and anticipates fewer acres planted due to lower corn prices.

🚜 US Ethanol Production:

Update: Weekly production rose to 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.4% from the previous week and 2.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23.6 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.6% from the previous week and 3.9% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand is up 1% compared to last year.

🌱 US Soybean Flash Sales:

Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) to China and 121,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📉 Federal Reserve Update:


Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September. Recent minutes show confidence that inflation is trending towards 2%. A rate cut is anticipated due to concerns about a weakening labor market. Recent data also indicated a revision in nonfarm payrolls, expected to be reduced by 818,000, the largest revision since 2009.

Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚂

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Here’s the latest crop tour and market update:

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:

Indiana: Corn yield projected at 187.5 bpa, up from last year's 180.9 bpa. USDA’s forecast is higher at 207 bpa. Soybean pod counts soared to 1,409 per 3x3 plot, up 8% from last year. USDA is projecting a record soybean yield of 62 bpa for the state.
Nebraska: Corn yield estimated at 173.3 bpa, up from last year's 167.2 bpa. USDA's forecast is a record 194 bpa. Soybean pod counts are strong at 1,172 per 3x3 plot, up 1% from last year. USDA projects a nearly 15% rise in soybean yield to 59 bpa.

🐄 Cattle Futures:

Market Trends: Cattle futures continue to drop, hitting new lows for each contract month. The selloff follows Vice President Harris’s announcement on tackling "price gouging," which could impact the beef market. Despite historically low beef cow numbers, the market remains bearish. The USDA's monthly cattle on feed report due this Friday will provide further insights.

🌾 Russia's Wheat Crop:

Weather Impact: Late spring frosts, dry conditions, and flooding have harmed Russia's wheat crop. The agriculture ministry maintains a forecast of 86 mmt, but estimates could be reduced. Sovecon’s projection is lower at 83.3 mmt. Geopolitical tensions are also rising with recent missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.

📦 US Soybean Flash Sales:

Recent Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 239,492 mt (9 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

💵 US Dollar Decline:

Market Impact: The US dollar fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar has weakened as economic concerns ease and with strong retail sales data, markets are anticipating up to four quarter-point rate cuts before year-end.
Stay tuned for more updates as the crop tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚜

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Here's the latest update from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and more:

🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:

Southeast South Dakota: Corn yield projected at 156.5 bpa, slightly down from last year's 157.4 bpa. Soybean pod counts up 1% from last year. USDA’s projections are more optimistic with a 10 bpa increase in corn and a 3 bpa (7%) rise in soybeans.
Western Ohio: Corn yield at 183.3 bpa, close to last year's 183.9 bpa. Soybean pod counts are down 2% from last year, while USDA projects a 1 bpa (1.7%) increase in soybean yield. Mixed sentiment here—some traders find it friendly for prices, others less clear.

🌾 Corn and Soybean Conditions:

Corn: Rated 67% good to excellent, steady with the previous week and the best rating since 2020. 5% of the crop is mature, ahead of the average.
Soybeans: Rated 68% good to excellent, also the best rating since 2020. 81% of the crop is setting pods, slightly ahead of the average.
🌾 Spring Wheat Harvest: 31% harvested, lagging behind the 36% average. Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete at 96%.

🚂 Canada Rail System Threat: Potential rail strikes by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could halt all freight services on Thursday, impacting grain shipments significantly. A stoppage could result in daily losses of $733 million during harvest season.

📦 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:

Corn: 1.2 mmt (46 million bushels) inspected for export, up 18% from the previous week and 128% from last year.
Soybeans: 398,233 mt (15 million bushels) inspected, up 14% from the prior week and 24% from last year. Flash sales included 332,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China and 110,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

🌾 USDA Flash Sales:

Soybeans: Multiple flash sales reported, with significant amounts sold to China and unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer tour continues and the Canadian rail situation develops! 🚜📉

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0:00 Crop Tour Preview
2:37 The Funds
4:38 Joe's Old Crop Corn Sales
6:03 Summit Pipeline Resistance
7:18 EU Crop Problems
9:34 Jackson Hole / Economy

Here’s what’s coming up:

🚜 Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Kicking off this week, the Pro Farmer crop tour will start in Ohio and South Dakota, and then move through Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Expect state-by-state findings each evening, with final crop estimates released on Thursday night. This tour has been a staple since 1993. 🗺️

📉 Fund Traders' Positions: Fund traders are holding historically large net short positions across the grain complex. As of August 13, they were net sellers of 4k corn contracts and net buyers of 2k soybean contracts, with a net short of 155k in soybeans. 📊

🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline: Facing pushback, Summit Carbon Solutions is hosting 23 public meetings in Iowa this week to address landowner concerns. Originally set to start this year, the pipeline’s operational date has been pushed to 2027 due to opposition and regulatory delays. 📉

🌾 EU Wheat Crop Concerns: Poor weather has hit wheat crops hard in the EU. France’s soft wheat crop is projected to be the worst since the 1980s, while Germany’s is also expected to be the worst since 2018. Rain has caused significant setbacks in both countries. 🌧️

🏛️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole: Powell is set to speak at Jackson Hole this week, where he's expected to confirm a September rate cut. Following positive CPI and PPI reports, a quarter-point cut seems likely. Keep an eye out for any hints about future rate changes. 📉

Stay tuned for updates from the crop tour and Powell's speech—both could shake things up! 🌟

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🌽 Corn Futures: After a positive turn on Monday, Dec24 corn futures are struggling to maintain momentum. With considerable bushels still unpriced by farmers, any rallies are getting capped. Check out the latest movements on this chart! 📉

🚜 John Deere's Earnings Jump: Despite layoffs and a tough year, John Deere's stock popped 4% after beating subdued Q3 expectations! They're navigating a rocky 2024 with a projected net income of $7 billion. 📊

🌱 Record Soybean Crush: NOPA's July numbers are in! With 182.9 million bushels processed, it's the highest for July ever, surpassing expectations. However, soybean oil stocks dipped to 1.5 billion pounds, hitting the lowest since last December. 📉

🌾 USDA Proposes Easing 45Z Tax Credits: Secretary Vilsack shared plans to modify the 45Z requirements, making it more practical for farmers by allowing more diverse practices and extending credits beyond just corn and soybeans. 📜

🏛️ Kamala Harris Targets Corporate Price-Gouging: Set to announce a proposal this Friday, Harris is taking aim at industry giants, especially in food and groceries, to tackle price-gouging and protect consumers. She's also eyeing cuts in drug and housing costs. 🗣️

🌍 US Corn Exports Slump: Last week's export sales were disheartening, hitting a marketing-year low with only 5 million bushels sold. 📉

🌦️ US Drought Update: The drought monitor shows slight improvements in Ohio and Kentucky, but worsening conditions in Missouri and Illinois. The majority of the Corn Belt experienced dry and cool conditions last week. 🌾

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Here's the latest rundown on some critical updates:

🔥 Amazon Drought Worsens: The drought in Brazil's Amazon region is hitting harder than last year, complicating grain shipments. With the Amazon River’s water levels dropping, shipping companies face increased costs and logistical headaches. The Brazilian government is stepping in with $90 million for dredging to help keep the river navigable. 🛳️🌾

📉 Inflation Drops: The CPI rose only 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the lowest inflation rate since 2021 and hinting at potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The labor market’s signs of cooling are adding more pressure for a rate reduction. 📊💸

🌱 NOPA’s July Data Incoming: Today could reveal a record July crush with NOPA members potentially processing 182.4 million bushels of soybeans. Ending soybean oil stocks might also touch the lowest levels since January, adding another layer to market dynamics. ⏳📈

🌧️ Weather Update: Scattered rains are moving across the Corn Belt, offering some relief, though many areas remain dry. The forecast suggests normal to below-normal temperatures, cooling off after recent heat. 🌦️🌡️

⛽ Ethanol Production Up: Ethanol production nudged up last week, with stocks showing a slight decrease. This movement aligns with a subtle increase in gasoline demand, although it's still below last year’s levels. 🌽🚗

Keep an eye on these developments as they could influence market trends and policy decisions! What do you think the potential rate cuts could mean for the markets?

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0:00 Bad Biofuel News
4:00 US Weather Update
6:36 Cargill Revenue Decline
7:34 Egypt Wheat Purchase
8:39 Lousy Flash Sales
9:15 Wholesale Inflation

Thanks for the detailed update! Here’s a quick summary of today's key points:

💼 Darling Ingredients' Stock Surge: Shares skyrocketed up to 16% due to proposed changes in California’s low-carbon fuel program, favoring Darling's use of used cooking oil over seed oils like soybean and canola in green diesel. 📈🌱

🌦️ Weather Update: Rains graced Nebraska and are moving into Iowa, with more rainfall expected across parts of the US Corn Belt in the coming days. Temperature-wise, we’re looking at near-normal conditions for most of the corn and soybean areas. 🌧️☀️

📉 Cargill’s Revenue Decline: The first decline in years, dropping nearly 10% to $160 billion due to global grain surpluses and tight crush margins, coupled with high cattle prices impacting profits. 📊🐄

🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Negotiations: Egypt aims to capitalize on low wheat prices by purchasing 1.8mmt from Russia and other sellers, trying to bulk up its reserves while facing pricing challenges. 🌍🍞

💹 Flash Sales and Market Reactions: Notable soybean and corn sales to China and Mexico, respectively, and a positive stock market response to lower-than-expected US producer prices hinting at easing inflationary pressures. 📈🌽📉

Seems like a dynamic mix of policy, weather, and market movements shaping the day! How are these changes impacting your perspective or plans?

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0:00 USDA Analysis
5:34 Crop Progress
7:55 Argentina Strike
8:40 Grain Shipment Update
9:42 Flash Sales are Bearish?
10:35 Crude Rally

Here’s a quick recap of the latest happenings in agriculture and energy markets:

🌽 USDA Corn and Soybean Report:

Soybeans are smashing records with a projected yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, predicting a bumper crop this year! 🌱
Corn isn't far behind, with a strong showing anticipated at 183.1 bushels per acre. However, both planted and harvested areas saw some cuts. 🚜
📊 Crop Conditions:

Corn and soybean conditions remain robust, matching or exceeding expectations, which is great news for this year’s yields. 📈
🚢 Argentine Grain Shipments:

Strikes have rocked the ports but are on pause for now, allowing shipments to slowly stabilize. 🛳️
🌾 US Grain Shipments:

Corn exports dipped last week but are still significantly up from last year, while wheat shipments are looking particularly strong. 🌎
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices:

Tensions in the Middle East have pushed WTI crude prices up, with potential impacts on global supply looming. ⛽
Always exciting (and a bit nerve-wracking!) to see how global events shake up the markets! What are your thoughts on these developments?