Daniels Trading Commodity Futures Broker Craig Turner discusses the Italian referendum no vote and what to look for with the Euro and the Great British Pound.  We also point out different strategies some traders are looking into as Natural Gas hits resistance.  Finally we talk about the big news for corn.  The NWS is forecasting lower than normal precipitation for Argentina and that could put real stress and yield loss on their corn crop.  Want to know what to look for in the futures and commodity markets? Then take a listen to Inside Commodity Futures podcast

 

 

Craig Turner – Senior Futures & Options Broker

Author of Turner’s Take futures spread trading newsletter

www.turnerstake.com

312-706-7610

Twitter: @Turners_Take

 

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Daniels Trading Commodity Futures Broker Craig Turner discusses the macro markets, the GBP bullish reversal, crude oil, natural gas, cattle, soybeans, corn basis, and the KC vs Chicago wheat spread.  Want to know what to look for in the futures and commodity markets? Then take a listen to Inside Commodity Futures podcast

 

 

Craig Turner – Senior Futures & Options Broker

Author of Turner’s Take futures spread trading newsletter

www.turnerstake.com

312-706-7610

Twitter: @Turners_Take

 

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Turner’s Take was created to give traders and investors a window into the elusive world of LaSalle and Wall Street. My experiences at the NYSE, Goldman Sachs, NYU Stern and Daniels Trading have produced invaluable knowledge and contacts in our most vital capital markets. This wealth of experience and insight has proven to be a critical educational and investment vehicle for my clients and subscribers.

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Good afternoon friends

Corn (H17)   347’2 +4’6

Soybeans (F17)  1027’4  -2’2

Chi Wheat (H17)  404’2 +8’2

KC Wheat  (H17)   408’6  +5’6

Cotton (H17) 71.04   +.14

GREEN day at the CBOT for corn and wheat after a tough week of trading for the feed grain markets. Beans closed just around unchanged. If the pattern from early September would hold then the lows are in the rear view from delivery.  I think we have a decent shot at a bounce in corn and wheat back up to levels we saw before the break.  I think 360 corn probably holds some resistance in March for now, the market knows the producer is going to get some corn shaken out of storage by January as the banker will be calling.  If you renowned the delivery break I would recommend selling some Jan (Dec 23) expiration calls over the position.  If you own more physical corn, all the better.

The CFTC report will be released after I write this, but I assume we will be seeing record short wheat spec positions and darn near record short corn. I assume the cotton position has revealed its self somewhat.  Speaking of cotton, the weather is going to get cold but stay dry in Texas, that should keep a lid on prices in the short term.  If you rolled shorts from March into Dec 17.  The harvest pace has me thinking a roll back around 2.00 is probably a good play to get back into the front month, the cotton seasonal stays strong through December.  With funds this long I am not against letting it go at these levels. But I remain set up for a sale in the gap near,

MRCI

Wheat has the most potential for a run, but the cool temps that are coming down the calendar in Kansas (maybe some snow too) that probably help keep the condition rating levels high.  Regardless, it remains dry out west.  I look for March KC wheat to get into the teens before falling apart.  As a wheat bull (July) at these prices, Im getting impatient. I just keep reminding myself we will kill this thing a few times before spring.

No new export biz was announced today in soybeans.  I heard a rumor this today that at a recent international grains council meeting, the Chinese delegation got up and walked out as the US was going to present. I expect to see Chinese offers moved to Brazil in coming weeks.  Bean export pace jumped this week, going counter to that argument. MRCI has a seasonal buy in soy meal staring today. Brazilian conditions remain solid, barring a dry spot or two in Southern Brazil and Argentina.  I think beans are set to contract vs corn as we come into the end of the year and the funds cover some of these short/longs. Don’t look for it to happen too soon though.

MRCI

Thanks for joining me again, have a fantastic weekend.

Good morning friends!

Corn (H17)    349’0     +’4

Soybeans (F17)  1036’0 +3’2

Chi Wheat (H17)  404’0  +1’2

KC Wheat  (H17)   411’0 +1’0

Cotton (H17) 71.25   -.33

Check out the audio comments for commentary this morning. Ill be back in the afternoon with more written words, if that is your speed.

Here’s to a profitable December for everyone.

Daniels Trading Commodity Futures Broker Craig Turner discusses the market reaction to OPEC agreeing to cut production and the impact on Crude Oil.  We also talk about KC vs Chicago Wheat, new crop Corn and Soybean acres, and the other major commodity markets. Want to know what to look for in the futures and commodity markets? Then take a listen to Inside Commodity Futures podcast

 

 

Craig Turner – Senior Futures & Options Broker

Author of Turner’s Take futures spread trading newsletter

www.turnerstake.com

312-706-7610

Twitter: @Turners_Take

 

Try Turner’s Take Market Alert for 30 Days

Turner’s Take Market Alert Trial – Turner’s Take Market Alert includes Daily Updates and an Intraday Trade Recommendation service for Daniels Trading clients.

Turner’s Take Market Alert includes an email newsletter subscription.

Turner’s Take Market Alert trial lasts 30 days.

Try Turner’s Take Market Alert for 30 Days

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Turner’s Take was created to give traders and investors a window into the elusive world of LaSalle and Wall Street. My experiences at the NYSE, Goldman Sachs, NYU Stern and Daniels Trading have produced invaluable knowledge and contacts in our most vital capital markets. This wealth of experience and insight has proven to be a critical educational and investment vehicle for my clients and subscribers.

Register Now

Good morning friends!

Corn    348  -1’6

Soybeans  1018’6   -1’4

Chi Wheat   407’2   -3’0

KC Wheat    413’0   -1’4

Cotton (H17) 71.72   -.57

CBOT markets saw further upside price action that had January soybeans testing their October highs near 10.31 before falling apart and trading negative this morning on profit taking in Europe.  December corn  gave $3.50 another run before falling with soybeans back into the range from the last session. Wheat markets are a dog, trying their best to stage rallies but just can’t find the momentum from the cash market with delivery periods approaching. Cotton will be looking at its own first notice day starting Wednesday, so be prepared for fireworks the next few days.  Looking at the markets from an open interest slant, I would be selling cotton and soybeans, and taking a bullish position in corn on a break into the delivery period.  Short term traders may want to look at selling January soybeans using the now formed “double top” on the daily as a stop out point.

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The South American weather forecast is favorable going forward, there is not much to talk about regarding weather.  Nothing I see out of SAM justifies the price action on beans. .No extreme heat is noted in the 14 day outlook.

Cash basis levels fell on Monday’s rally on a sign of good movement and slowing demand. Some of the fall in fob basis is due to the rally in freight rates.. Some leftover fund demand is likely in soybeans/meal, but at levels much below Monday.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, I appreciate you as a reader and a client.  I hope the holidays treat you and yours wonderfully.

 

Good afternoon friends!

Corn    349’6   +4’2

Soybeans  1020’2   +26’4

Chi Wheat   410’2   +2’2

KC Wheat 414’4  +’6

Cotton (H17)  72.29   -.03

Soybeans took the lead in today’s start to the holiday shortened weak closing up more than 2% as commodities are catching some wind in the proverbial sail. Corn and wheat came along for the ride, as did soybeans and cotton.  The story is the energy market, crude leading the way as OPEC talks the market higher. Side note: I could be wrong, maybe this is the time they agree on massive cuts, but I think you gotta fade a crude rally next if prices get into the 50’s ahead of OPEC on the 28th.

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US weekly export inspections came out today at 10:00.  % shipped of last years totals remain up 82% for corn from last year, 29% for wheat and  21% for soybeans. In normal years, the export business shifts to SAM from here, the offers in Brazil are cheaper than US offers out in January.  The questions guys are asking here, if Brazil has a bumper crop can they meet this kind of demand increase? Jan 17 futures picked almost a dime over November, I think this is risk premium coming in. As someone who is already short, my answer whether or sell new crop or not is the same.  Time may not be right now, but I would look to price some new crop beans ahead of the inauguration.  The story remains the same, if you are bullish new beans, you should be bullish corn as well.

The rest of the CBOT and cotton were along for the ride.  Be ready for a wild couple of weeks. Corn and wheat seasonals have prices sideways through early October.  I still think there is a lot of corn that needs to be priced before the Dec delivery.  I would be selling March corn on rallies into the 370’s. I remain bearish cotton with sale orders in at 73 cents Dec 17.

Daniels Trading Commodity Futures Broker Craig Turner discusses the market reaction to the US Presidential election and what to look for next.  We talk about possible strength in the Great British Pound, the coming headwinds for soybeans, and our thoughts on crude oil and natural gas.  Want to know what to look for in the futures and commodity markets? Then take a listen to Inside Commodity Futures podcast

 

 

Craig Turner – Senior Futures & Options Broker

Author of Turner’s Take futures spread trading newsletter

www.turnerstake.com

312-706-7610

Twitter: @Turners_Take

 

Good afternoon friends!

Corn 341’4  +4’2

Soybeans  989’4    +5’2

Chi Wheat   399’0  +5’0

KC Wheat  405’4    +2’6

Cotton  70.69   +1.79

 

CBOT markets were slow today, little news flow kept things tight.  I suspect it could be this way for a while.  KC-Chi wheat spreads contracted which probably meant short covering. I remain bullish corn and wheat and bearish to neutral soybeans over the medium term, but expect weakness going into December deliveries.

The major action happened in the ICE Cotton markets, overnight we saw massive buying in the expiring Dec-March futures spread with Dec getting over 71 cents at one point.  This is a seasonal buy recommendation from MRCI. I would advise you take it and roll anything you have sold in December to March futures if you have not already.

LEARN ABOUT MRCI AND SEASONAL SPREADS

The harvest was 20% behind pace in Texas compared to a year ago which is driving commercials to hedge that risk of not getting what they need in the early delivery period.

The stocks to use ratio in cotton does not warn of supply issues but I wouldn’t be shocked to see March futures perform into the end of the year.  I recommend you talk to Donna or myself about rolling hedges from this year’s production to next year’s production. There is a lot of risk lifting hedges at this time of the year, so I would prefer to either just cover short term positions or move short futures into December 17 contracts.  There is a lot we can do.  A conversation is important in the least, even if you stay the course.  I worry at night about the pace of getting product to market combined with the euphoria of Trump taking markets higher into the inauguration. There are gaps above the price that I could see getting filled.  If the market would correct, which I still think is possible given heavy long Cotton spec’s, the Dec 17 cotton will represent either sales for next year or sales for this year.If it does rally, your physical is free to appreciate. I would definitely make sales in the mid 70’s. Prepare for that.  Bottom line, I think the market could trade higher through Christmas, especially if Chinese demand gets priced in.  This could provide a fantastic opportunity to make new crop Dec 17 sales. 73 cents is my target. If you are short March and comfortable taking some pressure, then stay the course.

Good morning friends!

Corn 338’6   +1’4

Soybeans  984’4    +’2

Chi Wheat   397’0  +3’0

KC Wheat  405’4    +2’6

Cotton  70.20   +1.41

 

December cotton futures took off this morning as we head into delivery. December cotton futures are now above 71 cents followed by March trading above 70.25.  The key uptrend line that has been in place since early Q1 has been touched 7 of the last 8 trading sessions. Harvest is 41% complete vs the 56% average.  The spreads are telling me this is a delivery squeeze.  Maybe we have finally seen the breakout?  Seasonal traders would tell you yes, while guys following the OI might tell that this wil run out of steam.  All I can say is that the Chinese USD currency swap should help markets like cotton, even if the rest of the dollar complex trades higher.  Be ready for moves into the low 70’s in Dec 17 cotton.  That 73 cent price gap in the charts represents a fantastic place to get hedged for 2017 new crop.

Soybean traders need to be ready similar type of price action after the NOPA crush report today at 11 am central. Soybeans and cotton both represent Chinese demand and markets that have significant long positions built in from the spec trader. The National Oilseed Processors Association (or NOPA) will report they crushed somewhere in the area of 160.4 million bu. of soybeans in October, according to traders surveyed by Reuters. This would be the busiest October on record, easily topping last year’s record of 158.895 million bushels. It would also be the eighth highest crush on record for any month. The survey shows analysts expect NOPA to report Oct. 31 soyoil stocks at 1.323 billion lbs., which would be down 53 million bu. from the end of September and 85 million bu. under year-ago.  The crush is a negative factor on beans right now, the USDA lowered expected crush totals in the last WASDE.

South American Crop ALERT! I hate to be alarmist, but I want everyone to know when the crop downgrades come to Argentina or Brazil.  Yesterday consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his soybean crop estimate for Argentina by 2 MMT to 56 MMT this week, citing a “cold, wet and delayed start to soybean planting.” He elaborates that flooding and saturated conditions have delayed planting and more rain is in the forecast. He left his corn crop peg at 35.0 MMT, and noted a neutral bias toward both corn and beans going forward. Cordonnier made no changes to his Brazilian soybean or corn crop pegs, which stand at 101 MMT and 86 MMT.

World wheat cash prices are steady. Russian wheat is offered at $183/MT for spot arrival, vs. comparable US HRW at $175 and EU  at $186. Expect SAM corn to stay above US offers.  The export markets are very supportive for price right now.  Black Sea feed wheat – previously the world’s cheapest grain – has rallied to $171/MT, up $12 in just two weeks. US corn is now the world’s cheapest grain through February, which should keep values above harvest lows especially given a strong basis on the river. Fair value in corn is seen at $3.20-3.60, basis spot, with beans at $9.60- 10.20, basis Jan, and with wheat at $4.00-4.30, basis CME/KC.

As US harvest ends, market direction will be a function of S American weather and crop conditions. The South American forecast this morning is unchanged, and mostly favorable through late Nov. A stagnant pattern lies ahead, and heavy rainfall will be centered on the northern half of Brazil’s Ag Belt. Moisture in E/NE Brazil will be particularly welcomed, and early season crop ratings will stay high. Very little rainfall is offered to Argentina through the next 15-16 days.