It was a busy week in cannabis, and the trichome trio is back to cover all the news. The show starts by analyzing Trump's comments about cannabis and what it may mean for Schedule III and broader reform. The group agrees that the early Republican statements appear to derisk the space and reduce possible opposition to Schedule III. We also explore the potential for federal legalization and what it may mean for cannabis stocks. 

The top ten MSOs all reported 2Q earnings, and the show's second half digs into the results. We analyze quarters relative to expectations, compare margins, and discuss what drives the outperformance of the larger tier-one operators. Jesse, Toby, and Morgan all weigh in on who had the top quarters and what areas they would like to see improved. 

The show concludes with another fun Ask Grok segment. 

It's 103 days until the elections, and political theater continues to dominate the cannabis investing news cycle. This week, we learned that Kamala Harris is likely replacing Biden, and Toby helps us understand if this will be beneficial to cannabis and specifically to the Schedule III process. The rescheduling comment period also concluded this week and Headset produced an insightful report showing broad support for rescheduling, and even descheduling cannabis. Morgan walks us through the report that you can find on headset.io. 

 2Q earnings are around the corner, and Jesse shares analyst expectations for revenue and AEBITDA for the top ten MSOs. The group chimes in on what they are looking forward to most in this round of reports. The show concludes with another edition of Ask Grok. 

Hirsh Jane, Founder of Ananda Strategy, joins the show to discuss the series of state-level catalysts ahead in 2024 and 2025. Ohio is in the process of approving stores and Hirsh updates us on when we might see doors open in the Buckeye State and his expectation for how sales will evolve. 

Florida is the biggest potential adult-use flip in 2024, and the guys agres the state is polling well, and Amendment 3 is likely to pass this fall. Pennsylvania is the next biggest opportunity, and Hirsh shares why progress has been held up and explains why he thinks this state will likely open to adult use sometime in mid-to-late 2025. 

Jesse's home state of Minnesota is one state we can count on starting sales next year, and the group talks about implications for GTI and Goodness Growth and what we can learn from the thriving hemp-derived THC market in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. 

Finally, Hirsh explains the "Red Wave" thesis and how more adult-use Republican states may influence federal reform. 

The trichome trio is back to discuss progress on federal catalysts. The episode begins by discussing the 07/10 holiday, and Jesse updates us on trends he's seeing in the California concentrate market. The bulk of the conversation centers around Schedule III and how to assign probabilities to different outcomes. Morgan also gives us an update on the Boise Schiller lawsuit, and the group covers capital raises and lessons learned from 4Front Ventures' recent raise attempt. 

The episode concludes with a sexy Ask Grok. Next week, we'll have part two of the Mid-2024 Catalyst Review with an emphasis on the state-led growth story. 

The show begins this week by sharing due diligence tips when visiting a grow or dispensary. With cultivation, the group agrees there is no one way to grow great cannabis, but there are a handful of best practices. Regarding retail, location, parking, product selection, and budtenders were on the top of the list.

Curaleaf CEO Matt Darin joins the conversation to talk about their new line of hemp-derived THC products. He shares the vision for the project and how it can complement their current cannabis business. We dig into the products, formulations, and who is the target market. The conversation concludes by talking about pricing and how to compete with more affordable cannabis and alcohol products. 

Off the top, the guys discuss Verano's announcement of a share repurchase program. The company authorized the repurchase of up to $50 million of shares and we debate whether this is a good use of capital. Toby is more bullish on the program, while Morgan is more concerned about preserving cash and investing for growth. 

The Cannabist Company CEO David Hart joins the show to cover their recent restructuring and Florida divestiture news. David explains the rationale behind the Florida decision and how they are leaning into their core markets. Ohio is a key new state, and David walks us through their five-store footprint, tier-one grow, and the process for adding three new stores. Morgan digs into the Colorado market, and David explains how they have optimized those assets and built a strong core retail presence. The conversation concludes with David recapping balance sheet priorities. 

As always, Morgan has another fun question for Ask Grok. 

The episode begins with Toby elaborating on a recent X post stating that a large $90b pension plan recently invested >$100m in a leading cannabis-focused fund. This led to a broader discussion about how institutions are approaching investing in cannabis.

The conversation evolves into what's taking place in Florida. We recently saw a Fox News poll showing 66% support for legalizing adult-use cannabis. Meanwhile, Governor DeSantis recently came out against legalizing cannabis while simultaneously vetoing a bill that would bring new restrictions to the state’s thriving intoxicating hemp market.

The show concludes with another timely installment of Ask Grok. 

It's merger mania week--or merger maybenia as Morgan called it--and this week's show is dedicated to the potential partnerships between GTI and Sam Adams and Cansortium and RIV Capital. 

We tackle GTI and SAM off the top with an overview of the proposed merger and discuss the timing and synergies. We debate the timing and wonder why now as we are just approaching potential federal reform and meaningful TAM expansion if Florida flips adult use. The group also covers potential synergies in the sales and distribution, plus expanding the cannabis beverage category. 

Cansortium and RIV Capital are planning to merge, with the deal expected to close in the fourth quarter. The team talks about how it is hard to find a compelling balance sheet and income state, and perhaps this partnership effectively marries those two pieces. Toby offers perspective on the structure, and Morgan raises hurdles that may make it challenging to close, and this is reflected in the already wide deal spread. 

The show closes with Morgan asking Grok who is buying who in the proposed GTI/SAM merger. 

With Toby on holiday this week, Morgan and Jesse kick off this week's show by reviewing recent price action and contrasting it with reality. While falling share prices have eroded sentiment, there are positive developments. 

Ohio is beginning to turn on adult-use stores next month, and we analyze key dates, estimate the potential size of the adult-use market, and dig into MSO exposure in the Buckeye State. With 43 MSO-owned stores that may expand up to 70 in the near term, this is an important market for public operators, especially those with Level One grows that can add three additional stores and still have the capacity to participate in the wholesale market.

The show ends with a brief analysis of the Farm Bill and changes that may impact the hemp-derived cannabinoid space and Morgan Ask's Grok about the worst M&A deal in history

Nick Gastevich, known as CannaVestments online, joined us this week. He is one of the most experienced cannabis investors  and manages a family office that is active in the space.  

We discussed cannabis stock’s adverse reaction to the positive momentum on rescheduling and debated time frames for a final ruling. The heart of the conversation centers on first-quarter earnings, and we evaluated top-line growth and EBITDA conversion and analyzed cash flow metrics. 

The conversation concludes with an evaluation of different factors investors can use when analyzing cannabis stocks.