Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment
https://home.uchicago.edu/shimer/wp/reassess.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU