Industrial Advisors

Northwest Tech Boom: Shield AI, Space Deals, and Waymo Move-In

Industrial Advisors podcast hosts Matt McGregor and Kyle Beck discuss a fast-emerging tech boom in the Pacific Northwest—AI, defense, and space—calling it the most significant since the COVID boom and noting similar momentum seen in San Francisco 6–12 months earlier. They highlight Shield AI leasing all of Panattoni's Des Moines Creek West building to manufacture autonomous vertical takeoff/landing fighter jets, with plans to add up to 1M more square feet locally, major VC backing, job growth estimates, and production targets starting in 2028. Other rumored or active moves include a 300–400K square foot north Kent Valley deal possibly tied to Blue Origin, Stoke Space potentially acquiring Pacific Raceways for loud rocket testing, Kupper expanding in Everett by 91K square feet, Pierce County's "Project RAM" seeking 150K square feet plus 50–100 acres and heavy power, and Waymo rumored for a 145K square foot South Seattle service center; they also mention Cowboy Space taking 300K square feet.

00:00 The Northwest Tech Boom Overview

02:15 Shield AI and Autonomous Fighter Jets

04:45 Space Tech and Rocket Testing Sites

06:30 Waymo and Autonomous Vehicle Infrastructure

08:15 Comparing Today to Six Months Ago

Portland Industrial Market Update: Vacancy, Submarkets, Capital Interest, and the I-5 Corridor

On the Industrial Advisors podcast, hosts Bill Condon and Kyle Bach interview Colliers Portland industrial broker Tom Knecht about the Portland metro industrial market. Knecht says the market is regaining conviction with increased leasing activity, but vacancy is about 8% versus 3.5% five years ago, and tenants currently have leverage, requiring landlords to be creative with concessions and rates. He notes a wide spread between Class B/C Northeast Portland and Class A Southwest Washington, with Southwest Washington, Washington County (Hillsboro), and Clark County (Vancouver) leading rent growth while other submarkets plateau. Capital markets remain thin, with some investors still hesitant due to Portland's COVID-era reputation and business-tax environment, though less competition can mean better basis. Discussion also covers expanding I-5 corridor development into Ridgefield, Woodland, and Kelso (including a 1.2M SF Amazon lease), limited new construction starts, and cautious optimism through 2027.

00:00 Portland Perception Check

00:36 Podcast Intro and Guest

01:19 Tom Knecht Background

01:56 Market Today vs Past

03:13 Leasing Momentum and Sizes

04:38 Capital Markets and Investors

05:57 Submarkets Driving Rents

07:34 Business Climate and Taxes

09:38 Choosing Portland vs Vancouver

11:00 I-5 Corridor Development

14:03 Outlook Through 2027

16:14 Optimism and Wrap Up

Seattle Industrial Capital Markets Are Turning | Puget Sound 2026 Update

Puget Sound Industrial Capital Markets Update: Investors Return, Cap Rates Improve, and Seattle Shows Signs of Recovery

On the Industrial Advisors Podcast's 10th-anniversary season launch, Matt McGregor and Kyle Back discuss year-to-date Puget Sound industrial capital markets into Q3 (recorded Sept. 8), noting improving investor sentiment toward Seattle as the market "bounces along the bottom" and expectations of positive absorption after years of negative absorption amid limited new construction. They report 77 transactions totaling $1.9B (with 51% of volume in five deals) and cap rates generally ranging from 5.25%–6.0% (higher for challenged assets), including a recent 5.25% trade. Buyers are prioritizing Class A, strong-credit, well-located assets, while South Seattle remains difficult due to weak leasing economics and safety concerns. Major deals include Amazon-leased Kelso (~1.2M SF) at a 5.8% cap and Bridge Logistics' 782K SF Frederickson deal at a 5.35% cap, with investors outpacing owner-users 46–13. They anticipate a strong finish to the year, more institutional activity, and further cap-rate compression.

00:00 Seattle Bottoming Out

00:49 Season 10 Kickoff

01:43 New Format and Markets

02:41 Year to Date Deal Volume

03:37 Cap Rates and Buyer Focus

05:20 South Seattle Challenges

06:52 Investor Sentiment Shifts

09:41 Top Five Mega Deals

11:39 Investors vs Owner Users

13:42 Portfolio Buyers Return

15:15 Best Basis Deals

16:22 Year End Outlook

17:44 Wrap Up and Thanks

Build-to-Suit Industrial Real Estate: Mastering Tenant Capital Strategy with Joe Neckles

Recorded live from IAMC in Little Rock, Industrial Advisors host Joe Neckles of Fortress Investment Group to discuss Fortress's single-tenant triple-net lease strategy and his focus on fully capitalizing build-to-suit projects with developers and users. Neckles explains Fortress invests via existing net-lease acquisitions, sale-leasebacks, and build-to-suits, emphasizing direct engagement with developers, tenant reps, and end users. The conversation highlights why tenants choose build-to-suit over spec space or ownership: specialized needs (manufacturing, cold storage, data centers), limited market availability, and the ability to invest capital into their core business rather than real estate. Typical build-to-suit leases target 15+ years, ideally 20+ with extension options, and can reduce tenant risk through guaranteed maximum price contracts and delivery timelines; Fortress supports power needs by funding solutions once sites are vetted. They note improving build-to-suit activity after uncertainty in 2024–2025 and tighter construction lending in 2023, with some tenants taking advantage of a softer industrial market to lock long-term rates.

0:00 Intro and Joe Neckles Background

2:10 Building Strategic Industry Partnerships

3:45 Why Choose Build to Suit Over Spec

5:15 Power Capacity and Infrastructure Challenges

6:35 Lease vs Ownership Strategy

7:55 Mitigating Risk and Project Timelines

9:15 Industrial Market Trends and Outlook

NFI's 3PL Growth, Real Estate Strategy, and Tech Adoption with Michael Landsburg (IAMC Little Rock)

Live from the IAMC conference in Little Rock, the Industrial Advisors podcast interviews Michael Landsburg of NFI about the company's scale and strategy in the 3PL world. Landsburg explains NFI is a 94-year-old, privately held, family-owned supply chain company operating primarily in the US and Canada, with about 80 million square feet in its portfolio (about 17 million owned), roughly 18,000 employees, 5,000 trucks, and 14,000 trailers, serving shipments from Asian ports to home delivery. He discusses how NFI decides between customer-held leases, NFI-held leases, and owning facilities for control, speed, flexibility, and family investment diversification. This includes a shift after the global financial crisis toward leasing more space to third parties. He touches on submarket-by-submarket leasing conditions, NFI's strong performance versus the industry since 2022, a reduced risk posture in matching leases to contracts, ongoing data centralization to enable AI, warehouse automation with fully autonomous robots, and uncertainty over whether Asian-based 3PL growth represents net-new demand or market-share shift.

0:00 Intro and NFI overview

2:10 The history of the 94-year-old family business

4:15 Strategy behind owning vs leasing assets

6:30 Diversifying the portfolio after 2008

8:45 Current industrial market trends and softness

11:00 Leveraging data and AI in logistics

13:15 Autonomous robots in the warehouse

14:50 The impact of Asian 3PL growth

16:00 Closing thoughts and wrap up

2026 Industrial Outlook: Market Rebalancing, Big Box Demand & Nearshoring

Live at the IAMC conference in Little Rock, hosts interview Stephanie Rodriguez, who leads Colliers' industrial platform, about her people-focused approach to client and team relationships and her extensive travel (over 300,000 American Airlines miles last year). She discusses Colliers' positioning and performance, noting an uptick after Q1 in industrial deal and revenue counts and a stronger start to 2026, plus continued talent recruitment. Rodriguez highlights regional market dynamics: low-vacancy, conservative development and steady rent growth in the central region; strong Southeast demand driven by population growth and onshoring/nearshoring; and West Coast stabilization tied to ports. Growth drivers include steady e-commerce, dominant 3PL leasing activity, reshored advanced manufacturing (chips, pharmaceuticals), and capital-intensive data centers. Institutional owners remain focused on build-to-suit, with selective return to speculative development in low-vacancy markets and renewed big-box demand, including increased Amazon activity.

0:00 Intro and Guest Introduction

2:15 Colliers Platform and Regional Trends

5:10 Growth Sectors: 3PLs and Manufacturing

7:00 Institutional Perspectives and Spec Development

8:20 Big Box Trends and Upcoming Conferences

Industrial Advisors Podcast Live at IAMC: Dallas Bulk Demand, Spec Development, Shallow Bay Challenges, and Power Constraints

Live from the IAMC forum in Little Rock, the Industrial Advisors podcast hosts interview Chloe Garside of the Sansone Group about her move to Dallas as a development partner and what she's seeing in industrial real estate. She describes accelerating bulk demand nationally and in Dallas, noting Sansone has six million-square-foot spec buildings under construction or existing, with four already in lease talks, contributing to pushback toward build-to-suit for bulk due to limited availability. In Dallas, rent premiums favor bulk over sub-300,000-square-foot product, and she prefers 300,000–600,000-square-foot cross-dock specs, with 900,000–1.2 million as the big-box range. The group discusses shallow-bay/flex demand but high costs and infill site challenges, plus rising competition for land and power as data centers drive pricing expectations and utility delays, making power a daily tenant concern and prompting bridge solutions like alternative generation.

0:00 Intro and Chloe Garside's Career Journey

3:30 The State of the Dallas Industrial Market

6:45 Trends in Bulk Speculative Development

10:15 The Challenge of Shallow Bay and Flex Space

13:45 Data Centers and the Competition for Power

17:30 Creative Power Solutions and Market Outlook

Amanda Sevilla on the Value of IAMC for Corporate Occupiers

Live from Little Rock on the final day of IAMC, the Industrial Advisors podcast hosts interview Amanda Sevilla of Expeditors about her experience with the conference and why she joined. Sevilla says corporate occupier teams often run lean, and IAMC uniquely centers corporate tenants, creating a more even playing field than other conferences and enabling relationship-building that continues beyond the event. She values the community feel, honest and packed breakout sessions where real estate leaders share challenges and solutions, and uplifting general-session speakers, including John O'Leary. She notes her first IAMC in Greenville helped her discover the year-round network among the roughly 500-person group. Sevilla also cites benefits from landlord-run customer advisory councils for direct C-suite feedback, and she looks forward to the next IAMC in Columbus.

00:00 Why Join IAMC

00:56 Live From Little Rock

01:21 Conference Highlights

01:52 How Amanda Got Involved

03:08 Best Sessions and Breakouts

04:10 Favorite Host City

05:07 Other Conferences Worth It

06:10 Next Stop Columbus

06:32 Wrap Up and Thanks

Washington's Proposed Millionaires Tax (SB 6346) and the "Seattle Tax Stack": Mechanics, Migration, and Real Estate Impacts

Industrial Advisors Podcast hosts Bill Condon and Matt McGregor discuss Washington's proposed "Millionaires Tax," SB 6346, a 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million, noting it can effectively hit dual-income households and "lumpy" stock-based compensation. They describe a cumulative Seattle "tax stack" (9.9% state, 5% social housing, 2.4% JumpStart, 0.58% WA Cares) exceeding 18% before federal taxes, potentially reaching 55–60% total, and argue it could influence jobs, investment, sports free agents, and real estate demand, including taxation of Washington-sourced income for nonresidents. Using an AI-generated deep dive built from documents, the episode compares migration and revenue dynamics in New York and California, explains domicile-planning timelines, highlights QSBS (Section 1202) as a potential shelter, and emphasizes the risk that the $1 million threshold could be lowered, especially if tech valuations fall and projected revenues miss.

0:00 Cold open: the $1M household threshold 0:46 Introduction to Washington's proposed millionaires tax 2:08 RSUs, deferred income, and one-time tax events 3:10 Seattle's 18% local tax stack explained 5:31 Commercial real estate and Washington-sourced income 7:00 Investor demand, property values, and economic ripple effects 8:01 Why Bill and Matt used AI for this episode 10:15 AI deep dive: tax flight and wealth migration 11:19 Washington as a national tax policy test case 14:32 Revenue projections and the 21,000 filer base 15:22 The Seattle tax stack breakdown 16:50 Federal taxes and the 55%–60% combined burden 18:47 The real estate exemption in SB 6346 19:37 Lessons from Los Angeles Measure ULA 22:57 Luxury housing demand and high-net-worth buyer risk 24:11 2028 effective date and relocation planning 26:35 RSUs and "lumpy vesting" risk for tech workers 28:05 The marriage penalty in the proposed tax structure 30:06 QSBS as a potential shelter for founders 33:13 California, New York, and wealth migration data 36:38 Remote work and the new mobility of high earners 38:47 Why the $1M threshold may not stay fixed 41:04 Massachusetts and the risk of expanding the tax base 43:29 Tech market correction risk and revenue shortfalls 44:32 Final takeaway: the "leaky bucket" problem 45:06 Closing comments

NAIOP Washington on Industrial Development: Changing Perceptions, Policy Headwinds, and an Economic Impact Study

Bill Condon and Matt McGregor host NAIOP Washington guests Drew Zaborowski (Bear Creek Real Estate Development) and Carter Nelson (NAIOP WA) to discuss challenges facing industrial development in the state of Washington. They describe persistent misconceptions that industrial means outdated, polluting factories and growing anti-industrial rhetoric driving local dock-door restrictions, size limits, and moratoriums often enacted without data on lost tax revenue. Key headwinds include broad, vague environmental justice policies that can shift responsibility for past impacts to new developers, the 2021 energy code adding roughly $5 per square foot through electrification, EV-ready parking, solar, and testing requirements, as well as the grid-capacity limits that force costly infrastructure upgrades. They highlight Pierce County as constructive to work with and explain NAIOP's industrial economic impact study (available on NAIOP WA's website) as a data tool to counter "low-wage job" claims and support advocacy, funding, and member involvement.

0:00 Introduction to the guests and NAIOP WA

2:15 Drew Zaborowski's background and role in government affairs

5:05 Legislative headwinds and anti-industrial rhetoric

7:45 Environmental justice and the burden on new development

10:15 Debunking the low wage job myth in industrial sectors

12:50 Modern facilities vs the old factory perception

15:10 The impact of the 2021 energy code on development costs

18:25 Power grid capacity and utility challenges

20:45 Success stories in Pierce County and Frederickson

22:15 The NAIOP Industrial Economic Impact Study

23:00 How to get involved and support advocacy efforts