David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.

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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He then assesses the problems that face the Federal Reserve as it tries to carry out its dual mandate to contain inflation and to maximise employment. Manoj concludes with an assessment for global asset allocators of the outlook for interest rates, bond yields, equities, currencies and some investment opportunities in the US, UK, EU, Japan and several of the Emerging Markets.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 3-6-12-18 month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.