How to assess the "believability" of someone or something. Sometimes it is difficult to know who to listen to because of all the wanna-be, self-reported "experts" and useless noise on social media. We discuss now to "Believability weight your decision making", as stated by the billionaire investor, Ray Dalio in his book, "Principles". Also, the CF Journal article written by Jeff Glassman entitled "Conjecture, Hypothesis, Theory, Law" from 2007 is relevant and used to support the same concept.