Maggie Lake Talking Markets

* Sorry for the delay in posting. I was on the road and didn't have access.

The April jobs report crushed expectations, fueling a potential sixth straight weekly gain for the S&P and Nasdaq. But with oil hovering at $100 and tensions rising in the Persian Gulf, is the rally under threat? TradeGateHub Coach and Talking Markets Friday Resident Dale Pinkert joins Maggie Lake to break down the tug-of-war between strong labor data and geopolitical risk. Dale shares his tactical outlook and latest levels for metals, ags, bonds, currencies, and more. Follow TradeGateHub on YouTube here: ‪@TradeGateHub‬ Join Dale's Discord here: discord.gg/FjKsXNuzbB Please support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse

* Sorry for the delay in posting but I was on the road.

We've got 2 special guests joining us for Talking Markets today: Chris Tipper, Chief Economist and Strategist at the Ainslie Group, and Joseph Brombal, Research and Analysis Manager at Ainslie Wealth. They join Maggie Lake to discuss the outlook for Bitcoin and metals, why there's a startling divergence from the headline liquidity numbers, and why they think we're staring at "stagflation with a friendly face." Plus: thoughts on oil, Iran, and whether things really are different this time... For more from Ainslie: https://tipperanalytics.substack.com/https://www.ainsliewealth.com/Support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.comConnect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse

Beware $5 gas, a 5% 10yr and commodity hoarding.

As fighting escalates in the Middle East and oil prices surge, Peter Boockvar, CIO of One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, joins Maggie Lake on Talking Markets to break down the "Strait Shock" and its tightening grip on the global economy. With gasoline prices hitting their highest levels since 2022 and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a critical bottleneck, Peter explains why the full impact of these supply disruptions has yet to manifest in the consumer market.For more from Peter, join him over on Substack at: https://peterboockvar.substack.com/ Support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.comConnect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

S&P and Nasdaq indices are defying gravity with fresh all-time highs as we step into the new month, but the calendar just hit a notorious milestone for traders... On today's Talking Markets, Maggie Lake welcomes back TradeGateHub Coach Dale Pinkert to break down whether the "Sell in May and go away" adage holds any water this year. Dale shares his tactical outlook on whether investors should protect their recent gains or buy the rally, and updates on his current outlook for metals, ags, bonds, currencies, and more. Follow TradeGateHub on YouTube here: ‪‪‪@TradeGateHub‬ Join Dale's Discord here: discord.gg/FjKsXNuzbB Please support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse *We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice

Today is a massive day for global markets as we face a high-stakes collision between the Fed’s decision and a Megatech earnings gauntlet. With META, GOOG, MSFT, and AMZN all reporting after the bell, Brent Donnelly joins us to break down whether the "cash-printing machine" era for tech is finally shifting into a riskier regime, and discuss why Brent thinks the "captured Fed" narrative is "completely dead at this point."For more from Brent, sign up for his daily am/FX note at: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/Support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.comConnect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Joining Maggie Lake today on Talking Markets is Phil Dauber, Wall Street veteran and author of the Morning Musings Substack. Up for discussion: the complete dismissal of supply chain constraints and pricing shortages by markets, the dominance of systematic trading, and "the Trump put."For more from Phil: https://phildauber.substack.com/Support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse Chapters:00:00 – Is the Market Disconnected From Reality?01:30 – Commodities vs Equities: The Growing Market Divide03:00 – Semiconductor Rally Explained: Growth or Shortage Signal?04:30 – Helium Shortage and the Hidden Risk in Tech Stocks06:00 – Commodity Shock: Inflation and Demand Destruction Ahead07:30 – Why Stocks Ignore Macro Risk: The Bull Case08:10 – Passive Investing and Money Flows Driving Markets09:30 – CTAs, Algos and Trigger-Based Trading Explained11:00 – Insider Trading Fears and Loss of Market Trust12:30 – Is the Market a “Frankenstein” Driven by Flows?14:00 – Sector Rotation vs Real Economic Growth16:00 – Why Investors Feel Paralyzed Right Now18:00 – Commodity Crisis: Oil, Supply Chains and Shortages20:30 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Energy Risk23:00 – When Markets Break: No Buyers Scenario Explained26:00 – Retail Panic and the Risk of a Market Cascade28:30 – Fed Policy, Inflation and Economic Weakness Signals30:30 – Financial Sector Risks: Credit, Private Equity and Banks33:00 – Final Take: Confusion, Fear and Market Fragility*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice

The Nasdaq surged today as Intel’s blowout earnings reignited the AI infrastructure trade, leading the index to fresh new highs. Today on Talking Markets, TradeGateHub coach Dale Pinkert joins Maggie Lake to discuss whether this massive tech move can hold up, what Dale is watching for in the dollar, bonds, currencies, and more, and whether he still thinks silver's going down to $50... Follow TradeGateHub on YouTube here: ‪‪‪@TradeGateHub‬ Join Dale's Discord here: discord.gg/FjKsXNuzbB Please support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse
Timestamps:00:00 – Talking Markets With Dale Pinkert02:15 – Intel, AMD, Micron and Semiconductor Rally Risks05:10 – SanDisk Setup: Divergence and Short Opportunity07:10 – Gold and Silver Weakness: Dollar and Yield Impact09:00 – Platinum and Metals Outlook: Warning Signals09:30 – U.S. Dollar Outlook: One More Rally Ahead?13:50 – S&P 500 Setup: Melt-Up Before a Market Correction16:45 – Apple Stock Outlook: Breakout or Pullback Setup20:30 – AI, Tech Momentum and Market Leadership Rotation26:00 – Fed Policy and “Sell in May” Market Turning Point27:30 – TLT Bonds and Yields: Key Levels to Watch29:30 – Sugar Trade: Bottoming Pattern and Bullish Setup31:45 – Cannabis Stocks: Breakout vs Fake-Out Setup*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice

Is food inflation about to become the market's next major trade? MarketGauge.com Chief Strategist Mish Schneider joins Maggie Lake to break down why agriculture commodities could be setting up for a massive move this year - and it's about more than the Iran war. Beyond agriculture, Mish covers the Russell 2000's new all-time highs and the key 270 level to watch, what the gold-to-silver ratio is telling us about near-term precious metals moves, and Amazon's disruptive entry into the weight loss drug space (and what it means for Mish's Vanity Trade). Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouseConnect with us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com/Subscribe to Mish's channel here: ‪‪‪@TheEconomicModernFamily‬ We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX Group, joins Maggie Lake on Talking Markets today to discuss the Trouble with Treasuries, where the safe havens for investors are now, Vincent's latest thoughts on LatAm, China, and the Rest of World trade, and more. Follow Vincent on X: https://x.com/VincentDeluardJoin us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.comConnect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse*We know you get this, but gotta say it anyway - this show is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Last week on Talking Markets, TradeGateHub Coach Dale Pinkert said that if DXY broke down below 98, the rally in stocks would likely continue. Well, DXY fell below 98 today, so Maggie Lake sits down with Dale to discuss whether this is the ultimate "green light" for equities to push into record territory. Dale provides his technical roadmap for the S&P 500, his outlook on the DXY’s next move, and what he's seeing in metals, Mag 7, ags, bonds, and more. Follow TradeGateHub on YouTube here: ‪‪@TradeGateHub Join Dale's Discord here: discord.gg/FjKsXNuzbB Please support us on Substack: https://themarkethouse.substack.com Connect with us on Twitter: https://x.com/the_markethouse