Markets Now with Michelle Rook

A higher start in grains Monday with cattle lower. Brad Kooima of Kooima Koomia Varilek says cattle fall after a lower week but despite steady to $1 higher cash last week as they were overbought.  He thinks the market may be consolidating sideways, and is seeing cautious trade ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report.  However, beef prices are moving higher with increased kill and that should be supportive.  Hogs made new highs for the move on fund buying.  Grains are back higher with a string of flash export sales and missed rains in the Southern Plains supportive.  

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Grains have an ugly close on Friday and post lower weekly closes despite strong exports.  Tommy Grisafi with Advance Trading says grain markets saw harvest pressure, but were also removing weather premium and Russia's changing wheat export policy was also a factor.  The key will be will the funds sell more next week and push corn and soybeans back into contract lows or will the lower prices uncover more demand that provides support?  

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Grains fade strong weekly exports and additional flash sales as wheat drags down the complex.  Craig Turner of StoneX says end users have seen current prices as a value which has supported the markets and if you add in inflation grains could be carving out new trading ranges.  However, he thinks some of the buying is tied to fear of increased tariffs or a trade war.  Meanwhile, China threw more stimulus at the economy and indication to him that it is not working and could be a demand red flag.  And will the funds go back short in the grains?  

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Grains shake off early weakness to close higher as Darin Newsom with Barchart says end user or commercial buying stepped in.  Corn has seen a string of flash export sales including another 11.7 million bushels to Mexico and unknown Thursday.  He says there may be buying by export customers concerned about possible tariff's under a Trump presidency.  He thinks funds may have also stepped to the sidelines and prices don't have to move much higher before commercial buying slows so that may limit upside. So where are funds moving their money?  He says the softs and stock market have been the most attractive. Cattle ended mixed despite steady to higher cash trade and the market is looking tired.  

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Grain and livestock end mixed Wednesday.  Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn and wheat are higher on technical or corrective buying but corn also got support from nearly 80 million bushels of flash export sales mostly to Mexico.  Soybeans set back and fund selling, removing South American weather premium, China economic concerns and with heavy balance sheets. Cattle were lower except nearby live future as the markets await cash and consolidate technically.  Toay isn't sure if cash can trade higher a sixth week and says a bigger correction may be in store if futures can't close above chart resistance.  Lean hogs saw a nice technical recovery and are seeing strong cash and better than expected demand supportive as pork is at a value to beef.  

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Grain and livestock are mostly higher, except cattle.  Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle traded two-sided tyring to recover and overcome profit taking and hedge selling.  The market needs some new bullish news to push December live cattle over $190, including higher cash.  Boxed beef values have improved and so have packer margins so they should be able to pay up.  Hogs broke the uptrend line yesterday but funds bought on the break especially with cash up sharply Tuesday.  Corn and soybeans rebound after holding chart support but mostly due to flash export sales of 80 million bushels of corn and 6.4 million of soybeans.  So end users see value.  

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A red day in ag markets with risk off fund selling tied to the implosion in crude oil.  However, Vince Boddicker of Farmers Trading Company says there were other factors including better weather in South America and wheat areas of the U.S. and Black Sea, record Brazil corn and soybean estimates from CONAB, poor China economic news and harvest pressure.  How much technical damage was done and are the funds going to push the short side of the market again?  Cattle and hogs were also lower on profit taking as markets are overbought, plus hedge pressure.  

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Grains continue lower Tuesday for a third day, with cattle also lower.  Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain markets are seeing pressure from harvest, weather and renewed fund selling.  Grains are at important areas where technical support needs to hold or they could see a deeper selloff but there has been some export demand on the lower prices.  Cattle are lower on profit taking and hedge selling.  Lean hog futures are rebounding on short covering as funds defend their long position and cutouts were stronger.  

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Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says grains see pressure with risk off outside markets including the higher dollar and lower crude oil.  Funds were also back selling as row crops were removing weather premium on forecasted rains in South America and continued harvest or hedge selling by the farmer.  Wheat also ran into chart resistance and was trading rain chances in the Southern Plains.  Live cattle futures recovered after a lower day Friday and with stronger cash last week.  Lean hogs saw some hedge selling and profit taking.

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Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday on better cash news and trying to negate Friday's reversal. Lean hog futures ease on profit taking. While corn and soybeans see pressure from harvest and South American rain chances.  

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