Markets Now with Michelle Rook

Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says wheat starts strong on fund shortcovering triggered by war and weather concerns, which pulls up corn.  Soybeans struggle to follow. Fund short covering produced this uncommon harvest rally but how long does a rally like this historically last and are the funds just about done buying? Cattle and hogs also see fund buying and push to new highs for the move.  

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Grains and livestock futures all end higher.  Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds are buying across the ag sector and in the grains covering shorts.  He explains what fundamentally is driving the markets.  

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Corn continues higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks says Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures.  Wheat is following corn but also adding weather premium.  Soybeans are trying to follow but continue to struggle with harvest pressure and rain chances in the extended forecast for Brazil.  He says cattle are mostly lower as they are overbought and due for a correction but are supported by strong cash and ideas of steady to higher trade again this week.  Hog futures are mostly higher showing their resiliance especially in the face of the port strike on the East and Gulf Coasts.  

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Grains and livestock end mixed Monday.  Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn got some help from a slightly friendly quarter stocks number at 1.76 billion bushels, but most of the upside in corn and wheat was due to end of quarter fund short covering.  The key will be whether or not funds continue that trend into a new quarter as Dec corn could not close above $4.25.  Soybeans saw neutral report numbers but ended lower on rain chances in Brazil in the 10 day outlook.  Live cattle made new high closes for the move on fund buying and higher cash and cutouts, with feeders lower reacting to stronger corn prices.  Hogs were mixed.  

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Grains are slightly higher following the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report and Small Grains Summary.  Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net says the corn stocks were friendly under expectations at 1.76 billion bushels due to better feed demand and supporting corn.  A close above $4.25 could open the market to more technical buying.  Soybean stocks came in at 342 million bushels, close to estimates and the September WASDE.  So, here Brazil weather is the key moving forward and will determine if November can get above the 100 day moving average.  Wheat stocks in all positions was slightly above estimates at 1.99 billion bushels, while all wheat production came in at 1.97 billion bushels, slightly lower than August.  McCormick says U.S. and global weather and production concerns will now take center stage.  

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Grain and livestock markets are mixed this morning with positioning end of month and quarter and ahead of the USDA reports.  Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are overbought and due for a correction.  Cash was higher last week but he thinks it will hold together again this week with tight numbers in the North and even with formula cattle available in the South.  Hogs have traded two sided but did have a lower weekly close and cash is starting to weaken which may indicate the market is ready for a correction.  Corn and soybeans started off lower with some rain chances in the 10 day forecast for Brazil and with some profit taking and positioning end of quarter and moving into the USDA report.  He says the big question is will the funds keep covering short positions in the grains to start a new quarter if the report is not hugely bearish.  

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Soybeans and meal soar higher on Friday.  Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing attributes the recent strength to end of quarter fund short covering and the market adding weather premium on dry Brazil forecast, plus hopes for more China demand.  Corn followed soybeans but has some of the same South American crop concerns.  Wheat was not able to follow the row crop rally futures are approaching chart resistance and saw some end of quarter and report positioning, plus prices become uncompetitive.  Cattle made new highs for the move with high cash news but live cattle consolidated into the close and Blohm thinks that market may be running out of gas.  Hogs ended mostly lower with heavier weights and increased upfront supplies indicated in the Hogs and Pigs Report.   

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Grains and livestock are mixed early.  Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says after hedge pressure Thursday, soybeans see technical buying resume.  However, Nov stopped just short of the 100 day moving average and will need more bullish news to get through that level.  Corn is stuck between higher beans and lower wheat markets but he says is rangebound.  Wheat is setting back on slower exports and some hedge selling.  Cattle make near for the move highs with higher cash yesterday.  Hogs see intitial pressure on the Hogs and Pigs Report marketings but are trying to recover.  

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A lower day in ag markets except for cattle.  Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures started lower with the drop in boxed beef values yesterday.  However, the market made new highs for the move again into the close pushed by higher cash trade.  Southern live trade is at $184 to $185.50, but mostly $185, which is $2 higher than last week.  Northern trade has been lighter, but some $187 in western Nebraska developing right after the close.  The negative talk of lower slaughter this week is actually a function of the numbers not being there.  Hogs saw some profit taking ahead of the Hogs and Pigs Report.  Grains ended lower as the end of quarter short covering and profit taking by the funds that produced this rally was overcome by an increase in farmer selling.  

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Grains end higher in impressive fashion and after a mostly lower start. Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says the market has been resilient as the funds are exiting shorts and taking profits end of quarter. How long will they continue to buy after that?  China demand news and Brazil weather concerns have also contributed to the rally but he says it may be hard to sustain during harvest.  If the market does stay strong there may be some other underlying bullish factor that hasn't played out yet.  Cattle continue to look technically strong and have gotten a push from the stock market but Bennett says he is not sure if the funds will be willing to push the long side much farther.

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