Markets Now with Michelle Rook

Grains end higher in impressive fashion and after a mostly lower start. Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says the market has been resilient as the funds are exiting shorts and taking profits end of quarter. How long will they continue to buy after that?  China demand news and Brazil weather concerns have also contributed to the rally but he says it may be hard to sustain during harvest.  If the market does stay strong there may be some other underlying bullish factor that hasn't played out yet.  Cattle continue to look technically strong and have gotten a push from the stock market but Bennett says he is not sure if the funds will be willing to push the long side much farther.

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Grains are mostly lower except a few wheat contract early Wednesday after hitting chart resistance and seeing a pick up in farmer selling trim gains.  Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, says the grains continue to be resiliant as funds are exiting shorts and taking their profits to other markets including the stock market and the softs.  There has been some buying as well tied to China's economic stimulus move. However, he doesn't think investment money has a reason to be long the grain markets yet.  That may change as the futures add some weather premium tied to Brazil's drought and possible harvest delays and damage to U.S. crops from Hurricane Helene.  Cattle and hogs are seeing two-sided trade but are well supported and moving with the stock market and possible meat demand.  

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Grains end mixed and give up most of Tuesday's early rally.  What happened?  Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the market ran up into some chart resistance and is starting to look a little tired.  However, he says there was likely some hedge pressure and farmer selling on the rally.  He doesn't think the markets will set back much before resuming the strength due to strong demand, disappointing yields and U.S. and global weather concerns.  Plus, he says the funds are looking for a home for their money and grains are undervalued.  Cattle end mostly higher making more new highs for the move and while the market looks good technically and has been pushed by higher cash, Duling is a bit cautious due to the seasonal increase in supplies.  

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Grains continue to rally Tuesday on fund and technical buying and Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the markets have cleared some key chart resistance also triggering short covering.  He thinks China's economic stimulus, South America weather concerns and disappointing yields are supporting the buying as well.  Cattle futures trade two-sided and are due for a correction but have been resiliant with better cash.  

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Grains were higher on Monday with fund and technical buying but led by the soaring soybean market.  Allison Thompson with The Money Farm, says the combination of China lowering interest rates, dry South American weather and an additional 6.1 million bushels of soybean export business supported soybeans.  However, November beans could not take out the August high, which the market needs to close above to keep the rally going.  Corn and wheat followed soybeans but were also putting in some weather premium and reacted to strong export inspections.  Cattle futures made new highs for the move with cash up $2-$3 last week and a neutral Cattle on Feed Report.  However, she says the market is running into the next area of chart resistance.  

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Cattle futures make new highs for the move early, pushed by higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek.  The Cattle of Feed report was largely neutral and so the key will be if the funds want to keep buying on the strong technical signals.  Hog futures are also making near term highs with fund buying and China economic news.  Grains are seeing strong gains led by soybeans as China lowers interest rates, exporters report a 6 million bushel sale of soybeans and weather concerns in Brazil.  Soybeans are seeing a chart breakout but can they keep going as harvest pressure picks up?

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Corn and soybeans end lower Friday seeing harvest and hedge pressure due to option expiration.  Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net, says the row crops are also watching Brazil weather forecasts which have turned a little wetter to start October.  Wheat ended mixed but was lower for the week removing war and weather premium.  Cattle futures rallied back to close mostly higher making new highs for the move on the heels of some higher cash.  The stock market saw some consolidation but McCormick explains where it goes from here could impact ag markets.

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Cattle futures start lower Friday morning after new highs for the move Thursday.  Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says that market is overbought and into chart resistance and so traders are taking some profits ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report.  Cash cattle trade has been quiet but the signal of a bottom has brought buyers into the futures as well as lower interest rates and the strong stock market.  Hog futures also making new highs for the move Friday morning pushed by speculative or technical buying but it may also be better than expected demand.  Corn and soybeans are setting back on harvest pressure and some forecasted rains for Brazil, despite higher wheat and 4.4 million bushels of soybean export business to China.  

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Grains end lower Thursday with livestock to the plus side.  Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybean markets saw some early harvest pressure plus some rain chances in Brazil in early October also played a role.  Wheat fell with better rain chances in the Central and Southern Plains.  However, all the grain markets have technically run into chart resistance.  Cattle and hogs and the stock market all rallied together in a delayed reaction to the Fed cutting interest rates for the first time in four years. Minor says that is positive for demand for meat and all commodities. He says the change in monetary policy may also bring some managed money back into the grains.  

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Grains are mixed early with livestock mostly higher.  Soybeans are holding slight gains on strong weekly exports but DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says they may struggle to stay above the 50 day moving average with harvest progressing.  Corn is being pulled down by wheat and looking for more yield data, while wheat is seeing continued profit taking with a higher dollar, slower exports and rains in the SW Plains.  Cattle futures are strong with the rally in the stock market, lower interest rates and a bottom in the cash market, with December live cattle getting above $180.  Hogs see continued technical buying.  

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