better. with Jerred Moon

Organic vs Paid Traffic: What Actually Works in 2025 | 216


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Podcast listeners! Dowload the calcualtor referenced in this episode here: https://better.biz/systems/email-calculator Scaling your business in 2025 isn't about going viral—it's about doing the math. In this episode, I break down the real numbers behind organic vs paid traffic and show you how to actually scale using both. If you've ever wondered how much you should pay for a lead or when ads make sense, this is your blueprint.

Here's what I cover:

  • Why business growth is math, not a popularity contest

  • How top "organic" creators are secretly spending big

  • The hybrid traffic strategy I recommend (and use)

  • Real numbers from my brands — from $1 leads to $1,500 LTVs

  • The exact formulas for calculating lead value, LTV, and acquisition cost

  • When it's OK to "lose" money in the short term

  • How to use the free calculator to model your own business scaling path

Core Frameworks:

  • Lead → Trial → Paid → LTV Funnel: A simple model for tracking ROI from the first touchpoint to full customer value

  • Business Math for Scaling: Understand how much you can and should spend to acquire a customer

  • 50% LTV Rule: A pragmatic threshold for profitable paid traffic

  • Email Conversion Back-Math: Reverse-engineering lead value from email performance

  • Cost Tolerance Matrix: When to prioritize fast scaling vs high margins

If you're serious about growing your business—not your follower count—this is how you start making calculated moves. Business isn't about going viral, it's about making math-based decisions that scale.

Try hard. Then try harder.

Timestamps:

00:00 Business is math, not a popularity contest 01:00 Organic content vs paid traffic: the hidden cost of "free" 02:15 Why a hybrid traffic strategy is the future 03:00 How much can you actually pay for a lead? 04:00 Real ad performance numbers from my brands 05:30 Breaking down the lead → trial → paid funnel 07:00 How lifetime value (LTV) changes everything 09:00 Why most business owners quit too early 10:00 Back-of-napkin LTV calculation 11:00 How much you should spend to acquire a customer 12:00 Lead value math based on email conversion rates 13:00 The mindset shift most entrepreneurs need 14:00 Why I've never turned off paid ads 15:00 Final takeaway: scaling is math, not magic

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better. with Jerred MoonBy Jerred Moon

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