Panic with Friends - Howard Lindzon

When Knut and I started Panic with Friends at the beginning of the pandemic, it was just that – panicking with a few friends on what was happening in the market. I don’t think either of us knew how successful the podcast would become over three years later. My good friend Jeff RIchards of GGV Capital made several appearances on the show in the early days, but we last had him on in January of 2022. In that episode, Jeff helped me frame the selloff and gave me a big picture view on the fundamentals versus where valuations were at the time. After a year or so where we were all just licking our wounds, I thought it was high time to get Jeff back on the show to get a handle on repositioning ourselves for what the future might look like.

Guest - Jeff Richards, Managing partner at GGV Capital 

howardlindzon.com, ggvc.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @jrichlive, @GGVCapital, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/jeffrichards 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction (00:41)

Welcome back Jeff (03:42)

Investing in growth (04:10)

The next bull market (05:41)

Impact of higher rates (06:23)

Funding landscape (7:01)

Potential of generative AI (07:54)

App distribution constraints (08:47)

Embracing AI (10:46)

Contrast now and tech in 99/00 (13:40)

AI and physical brands (14:36)

Advice of the younger generation (15:52)

Growth in golf and pickleball (18:21)

Reimaging sports with infused tech (19:53)

GGV’s focus (20:10)

Founder/Startup headwinds (20:59)

Measuring VC success (22:09)

Looking ahead (24:33)

Looking at fintech & proptech (25:21)

Impact of higher interest rates (26:30)

Travel is booming (27:07)

Opportunity in ‘Treasury Management (29:26)

Record growth in SMBs (31:05)

Seeing a renaissance of innovation (32:31)

Hoping for innovation in healthcare (50:31)

Wrapping up (52:10)

Closing thoughts (53:10)

Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory is back on Panic for a record-breaking sixth time! He may be the smartest guy I know, which is why I keep having him on. He’s just an explainer – the way he explains things very easily – and I like complex things explained simply. Ben is a former Professor, a beekeeper, and a market lover. He’s the co-founder and CIO of Epsilon Theory, where he writes outstanding essays about narratives in the market – backed up by data. I wanted to catch up with him to weigh in on my themes for the next 10 years in an America that’s becoming what I call the Rich, Angry, Degenerate economy. There are a lot of narratives to talk about; Ben was unfortunately right on the one that was inflation. And we get into the latest narrative around the U.S. dollar. You’re really going to learn a lot. Enjoy! 

Guest - Ben Hunt, Co-Founder and Partner at Second Foundation Partners, Author and Co-Founder at Epsilon Theory 

howardlindzon.com, epsilontheory.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @epsilontheory, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/bhunt 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction (00:42)

Welcome back Ben (07:05)

Gold as a metaphor for the economy (08:32)

GFC was different (09:49)

“Fiat” news (10:50)

Rational optimism (14:24)

The Peter Thiel Industrial Complex (18:19)

Rich Man, Angry Man, Degenerate Man Economy (23:07)

We’re treated as a cog in a powerful machine (27:09)

The inflation narrative (27:59)

The de-dollarization narrative (31:06)

Who’s Chamath? (35:36)

Internet trolls (37:37)

Generative AI (38:30)

Astroturf campaigns (40:25)

Why ‘they’ create chaos (41:27)

Ruthless pursuit of creativity (43:37)

European companies (45:59)

Time to get back to work (47:04)

Intersection of narratives and markets (48:38)

Wrapping up (52:08)

Closing thoughts (53:16)

I’m excited to have another one of our portfolio company founders on this episode of Panic. Oana is the founder and CEO of Sequel.io, which allows organizations of all sizes to host live events and webinars right on their own website. It’s a no-code solution that lets marketers turn live video into leads by embedding events on their own websites. Coming from a marketing background at HP, Oana launched Sequel.io shortly before the pandemic to solve her own marketing pain points. And she’s building quite a juggernaut in the live-video space. 

Part of the fun in being a seed investor is using many of the products in the portfolio early. We’ve used Sequel.io’s solutions at our first post-pandemic Palooza in 2022, and again at Palooza in 2023. As many long-term subscribers know, I’m also using the platform from our portfolio company beehiiv for my daily blog posts. You might say I’m ‘eating our own cooking’ – it’s all part of investing for profit and joy. You’ll learn a lot from this episode. Enjoy! 

Guest - Oana Manolache, Founder and CEO at Sequel.io 

howardlindzon.com, sequel.io 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @Omanolache, @sequel_io, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/oana-m-manolache/

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction (00:32)

Welcome Oana (08:44)

Origin of Sequel (09:24)

Importance of staying on platform (12:06)

Building through the pandemic (13:57)

Putting yourself in the customer's shoes (17:58)

Perfect size company for Sequel (19:35)

Game Changer series (20:56)

Building AI with the customer in mind (22:55)

Building a culture with a remote sales team (24:31)

Dealing with large competitors (26:19)

Challenges to remote work (28:09)

The Bay Area and startup scene worldwide (29:58)

Balancing digital and physical (32:37)

Working with Social Leverage (33:26)

Leading with Content (35:01)

Wrapping up (36:27)

Closing thoughts (36:58)

My good friend and fishing buddy Lewis Johnson of Capitol Wealth Advisors is back on Panic with Friends for a fourth round, slowly catching up to our leader, Ben Hunt. Way back when Lewis was first on the show rates were zero going to negative. When he was last here in November of 2022, we touched on the Madoff Moment that was FTX, and talked about how to position ourselves moving into 2023. Lewis understands cycles. As we head into the summer with gold breaking out into all-time highs, I wanted to catch up with Lewis to discuss this potential breakout and how to play this cyclical trade. 

Guest - Lewis Johnson, CIO at Capital Wealth Advisors 

howardlindzon.com,  capitalwealthadvisors.com 

blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @PanicwFriends, @TrendsTailRisks, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/lewismjohnson 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction (00:39)

Welcome back Lewis (08:39)

Heading into Summer 2023 (09:54)

Overstaying leadership (12:55)

Tech theme bleeding out? (17:49)

Looking at past crises (18:49)

Quiet rise of gold (20:14)

Recent trends (22:39)

Exposure to precious metals (23:51)

Number one driver of long-term returns (26:39)

FED raise until it breaks (28:24)

Can banks profitably lend? (29:44)

Tech driven / consumer discretionary market (31:24)

Limit exposure to last cycle leaders (33:26)

A bull market in commodities? (34:49)

Wrapping up (35:21)

Closing thoughts (39:52)

I’m happy to have my good friend Paul Tran of Manscaped back on Panic with Friends. He’s an incredible founder, entrepreneur, product person, and marketer. He continues to build a global omnichannel brand at an epic pace. We’re really proud seed investors in our Social Leverage Fund III. 

I’m constantly writing about the urgency and importance of marketing, and Paul and his team are world-class. It's not so easy to just go online and do marketing nowadays. You have to have a lot of skills across multiple sectors. The Manscaped team continues to be creative and test new media formats over and over again with great success. Every entrepreneur can learn something by listening to Paul. His insights on building an enduring brand and how he thinks about growth are timeless. Enjoy the episode. You’ll learn a lot. 

BTW, visit Manscaped and use the promo code ‘Howie’ for 20 percent off your first order. 

Guest - Paul Tran, Founder and CEO of Manscaped 

howardlindzon.com, manscaped.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @paultran, @manscaped, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

youtube.com/channel/manscaped

linkedin.com/in/paultran 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes:

Introduction. (00:32)

Welcome Paul (05:12)

3 metrics Paul uses (05:33)

Manscaped origin story (06:12)

A culture of innovation (08:22)

The ‘secret sauce’ (10:10)

Pitching Manscaped (10:58)

Phenomenal growth (13:01)

Focus on target market (14:50)

A global brand (16:20)

Marketing (18:34)

Expanding demographic (19:26)

Brand loyalty (21:24)

Marketing with celebrities (24:30)

Manscaped’s mission (25:14)

Importance of omnichannel (26:18)

Customers pay for quality (28:50)

Ideas and failure (31:10)

Success is never a straight line (32:16)

Manscaped today (34:12)

Paul’s edge (37:00)

Thoughts on luxury fashion (38:28)

What makes a brand stay relevant (38:59)

Measuring sentiment (42:44)

Closing thoughts. (43:42)

I’m really, really excited to have Frederik Mijnhardt, the CEO and Co-founder of Secfi on Panic today. Frederik and Secfi (Social Leverage Fund III) are an incredible educational resource and service for founders and startup employees. I’ve talked about, tweeted about, and written about how important it is for those early startup employees to deal with liquidity and things like exercising their options in a tax-efficient way. Startup equity is complex. COVID had many startup employees learning the hard way – and more recently with the Series I at Stripe, noted for both its size, and its tender offer coming in at 50 percent lower than the previous round. As we continue to see more of these “down rounds” and lackluster IPO windows, Frederik and his team are helping employees make the most of their equity and make more informed decisions. I’ll say it again – this is an important topic so please forward this to anyone you know that founded or works at a startup – whether it’s a company that has just raised a seed round or a company on its way to an IPO. 

Guest - Frederik Mijnhardt, CEO and Co-Founder at SecFi 

howardlindzon.com, secfi.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @AFMijnhardt, @AskSecfi, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/mijnhardt 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction. (00:37)

Welcome Frederik (08:07)

About Secfi (08:36)

The Stripe case (09:18)

How startup employees should think (13:39)

Thoughts for founders (17:00)

Investing in an up market (19:18)

Exercising your options (19:50)

Tax traps (21:38)

Educating employees (22:42)

Transparency (First time founders v. serial entrepreneurs) (24:08)

Problems in the industry (24:46)

Software company multiples (26:43)

Watching your money (28:43)

The next bull market (33:34)

Wealthy on paper (35:16)

Employee equity by country (37:28)

Great companies are built in a downturn (43:40)

Wrapping up (45:14)

Closing thoughts. (46:30)

I’m excited to have my good friend Barry Ritholtz back on the show. Barry is the Chairman and CIO of Rithotz Wealth Management, an author, a newspaper columnist, and the host of the Bloomberg Podcast Masters in Business. He also runs a blog called The Big Picture, along with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. I had Josh Brown on a few weeks ago, so I really wanted to bring Barry on to further the discussion. And who better to discuss the recent banking crisis than the guy who wrote the book on the Great Financial Crisis? (Bailout Nation). We cover how the market drives the narrative, and Barry shares his insight on a COVID-induced ‘reset’, the Fed, inflation, and how it all might play out moving forward. Enjoy! 

Guest - Barry Ritholtz, Chairman and CIO at Ritholtz Wealth Management 

Where to Find Barry:

RWM Big Picture Masters in Business iTunes Twitter

howardlindzon.com, ritholtz.com, ritholtzwealth.com, bloomberg.com/podcasts/series/master-in-business 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @ritholtz, @RitholtzWealth, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance

Show Notes: 

Introduction. (00:38)

Welcome Barry (07:07)

Strong opinions (09:15)

Market actions drive narratives (12:28)

Narrative fallacy & hindsight bias (14:02)

Asset allocation (16:00)

COVID reset (19:35)

GFC v. banking crisis (23:56)

What caused the bank run (26:28)

VC’s becoming price takers (28:05)

Interest rates & Inflation (30:53)

The Moody’s tax (33:56)

What else Barry’s excited about (35:38)

Barry’s favorite podcast guests (37:15)

VC’s shotgun approach (43:32)

Private v. Public markets (47:06)

Consistency leads to long-term performance (47:49)

Wealth mobility in the US (48:55)

Barry’s other favorite podcast guest (50:25)

Shows Barry’s watching (53:30)

Closing thoughts. (57:08)

The past week and a half was pretty tough – everyone on Twitter went from Ukraine war expert to Bank run expert after the Silicon Valley Bank debacle. There were even rumors of bank CEOs flying in to visit old man Warren Buffet in Omaha over the weekend before last. I’m no expert, and I honestly have know idea how all this plays out in the very short term, so I had my friend and longtime Regional Bank CEO Greg Garrabrants of Axos Bank ($18.4 billion in assets) come on ‘Panic’ to talk about it all. Who better to talk about it than a CEO who survived without taking TARP money way back in the ole ‘great financial crisis’? 

We all just learned a big lesson. You saw what fear looked like, and the potential for panic to spread because of politics. Hopefully this episode helps calm some people. We’re not recommending anything, only that you understand your banking products. It is your money – you have to understand how sweep works, how FDIC insurance works, and you need to understand the balance sheet of your bank. 

Guest - Gregory Garrabrants, President & CEO at Axos Bank & Axos Financial 

howardlindzon.com, axosbank.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @AxosBank, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/gregorygarrabrants 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

• Introduction. (00:42)

• Welcome Greg (03:27)

• What the FED should monitor (05:01)

• Insured/Uninsured deposits (06:16)

• Extraordinary growth of SVB (08:05)

• SVBs fatal decision (08:30

• Focus on the wrong risk (13:07)

• SVBs ecosystem (16:04)

• Several early warnings (23:59)

• Flashback to 2007 (27:20)

• Opportunity in Fintech (30:22)

• Thoughts on crypto (32:06)

• Countercyclical business (35:31)

• Where is the industry going? (39:52)

• Opportunity in Wealthtech (44:15)

• Best time to buy a house? (49:43)

• Closing thoughts. (50:44)

There’s a massive unspoken epidemic going on globally in men’s health right now – low T-scores; and practically no one is talking about it. Lots of ‘youts’ are running around on an empty tank and don’t even know it. It’s an interesting and very important topic; and it's at the top of a lot of people’s minds, even if it’s a bit taboo to talk about. But it's something that matters to me, so I wanted to dive in deep and figure out what it all means. My guest today makes checking, monitoring, and boosting your t-score accessible and affordable. I’ve used the service myself (Ellen made me check mine), and as luck would have it, I'm also an indirect investor in Saad’s company. I’ve got a feeling this will be my most evergreen episode. Enjoy! 

Guest - Saad Alam, Founder and CEO at Hone Health 

howardlindzon.com, honehealth.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @saad_hone, @honehealth, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

Instagram: @msaadalam, @hone.health 

linkedin.com/in/saad-alam-a146b311

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction. (00:37)

Welcome Saad (06:14)

Misconceptions about testosterone (07:49)

Causes of low testosterone (09:51)

The stigma of low T (10:55)

Saad’s story (16:06)

Shelf-life of a medical degree (20:50)

Saad takes control of his health (22:44)

An unspoken global epidemic (24:38)

The Hone Health process (26:21)

The 2011/12 testosterone hype (29:06)

Howard’s t-score (37:45)

Free testosterone (39:36)

Leading longer lives (46:19)

There’s no silver bullet (48:30)

Wrapping it up. (53:08)

Closing thoughts. (53:24)

In this episode, I’m back in the hot seat again while my producer Knut grills me on what I’m calling my ‘errors of omission’. It’s part of my plan this year to cover various points in my career. Previously I've discussed details on Wallstrip and Stocktwits. Both of those episodes answered a lot of the questions I've been asked over the years. 

But one of the questions I’m asked most often as an investor and entrepreneur is, “Howard, what’s your biggest mistake, your biggest miss?” I’ve been in this game for a while now – so it’s a splendid idea to finally share them in a format where everyone can learn from my mistakes. 

I lay out my biggest errors, or what I would call errors of omission versus errors of commission, in the spirit of Bessemer Ventures “anti-portfolio” – that is some of the biggest ones they missed, like AirBnb, Coinbase, and eBay to name a few. I cover three of my biggest whiffs. It's part of the joy of investing, the irreverence, having the cojones to create a whole anti-portfolio and share it. You may have even heard of one or two of mine. 

Guest - Howard Lindzon, General partner at Social Leverage and Host of Panic With Friends Podcast 

Co-host - Knut Jensen 

howardlindzon.com, stocktwits.com, socialleverage.com 

Twitter: @howardlindzon, @PanicwFriends, @knutjensen 

linkedin.com/in/howardlindzon 

linkedin.com/company/socialleverage 

linkedin.com/in/knutejensen 

#fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance 

Show Notes: 

Introduction. (00:33)

Knut’s biggest mistake (01:39)

The anti-portfolio (02:10)

Getting asked to dance (03:57)

Setting the stage (05:01)

First miss (06:26)

Network Effects (10:20)

Lesson on valuation (12:51)

The next big miss (14:21)

Making the same mistake (16:00)

Another big miss (17:51)

The lesson learned (24:58)

Wrapping it up. (26:38)

Closing thoughts. (28:18)