Saxo Market Call

Today, we note that the bearish line continues to hold in US equities, as the Nasdaq 100 index can't seem to break through the local resistance and the S&P 500 index has shied away from the 7,000 level. We also run through this week's earnings for takeaways, preview Netflix earnings for next Tuesday as well as other key tech names reporting next week. In geopolitics, we continue to assess the true nature of the Donroe Doctrine and Trump's ambitions for Greenland, as well as shielding our eyes for what awaits Carney on his return from China. Today's pod features Saxo equity strategist Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Two links for today: one a podcast discussing US military deterrents to China's invasion of Taiwan, among other US defense topics, and two, a profile of the remarkable entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, billionaire and founder of military technology company Anduril, which he started at the age of 25.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Today we note that yesterday's divergences in the US equity market internals were particularly large as Mag7 and banks suffered yesterday amidst otherwise strong market breadth, while silver stumbled on a double whammy of news but is already posting a comeback attempt. Elsewhere, we scratch our head at the situation over Greenland, remind of the critical stakes for energy and the Middle East at large as Iran's regime teeters and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Today, a rundown of the latest market action and the "last chance saloon" for bears still hanging in there for now as earning season picks up momentum from here after yesterday's downbeat reception of JPMorgan's earnings call, with Jamie Dimon downbeat on implications of US deficits for the long run. Elsewhere, a look at two companies that are under massive pressure from AI - more for narrative reasons than anything in their earnings. And we discuss the US economy's much weaker state than is widely recognized among many other topics. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Today we round up the market action and focus especially in on the precious metals and other commodities markets with a spotlight on silver and whether it is getting overdone here to the upside, or if the rallies in gold and now silver are leading indicators of a more transformative repricing of the physical world relative to the paper/financialized world, which could mean we're only getting started. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

As discussed on the show, a post from Craig Tindale on the importance of critical materials and what China understood a long time ago that has led to this ugly wakeup moment for the rest of the world. There is also this post from Craig, which discusses another angle on the same topic. Also note that the Trump administration is listening.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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A rocky start to the week as the market looks on with unease at the latest Trump administration move against Fed independence, but the move could also be about this story reinforcing a wider pattern. Elsewhere, Merck is pursuing a giant acquisition, earnings season is set to kick off tomorrow and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. 

Sign up for the webinar John will host with Chief Economist at CME Group Erik Norland on the outlook across markets - tomorrow at 1200 GMT.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

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Today, the weak tech, strong broad market theme deepens as we wonder what is driving it. Also, geopolitical developments are coming quick and heavy, with the situation in Iran looking especially impactful from here if the regime is overturned. Elsewhere, a focus on the US dollar today on the US jobs report and whether nearly-dead FX can wake up if macro trades are revived in its wake. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's The FX Trader from today.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Today, we run through a number of factors, from the very tactical, to the very big picture, on why bears might try to make a stand here - with earnings season in the wings to test this wildly bullish market anyway in the weeks ahead. Regardless, Trump's new populist pronouncements on big defense companies and companies buying US housing are pivotal, as they will have strong bipartisan support. Elsewhere, geopolitics will remain a massive distraction even if markets continue to ignore developments there for now, outside of European defense stocks, at least. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Today, we note the strong risk-on vibe continues, though more in the broader market rather than in the megacaps. We also highlight that major commodity indices are in for an annual rebalancing in coming days, with interesting implications for gold, silver and even cocoa. There's also lots of Nvidia news shaking the autonomous driving space, very little going on in the FX space, though Aussie is doing its best to make noise and key US data incoming. This and more (including geopolitics and oil) on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Today, a rundown of a positive day for stocks, though two Mag 7 stocks look rather weak here given the backdrop. We also discuss a reconstitution of our AI basket, FX trying to become relevant again with some possibly interesting moves developing and the hope that the US dollar can make a statement one way or another by the end of the week with key data incoming. A few comments on Venezuela and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Today's interesting link is to a comment on AgrisAcademy's X account by a former Cargill trader who describes what a failed state looks like from ground level. There is an awful lot to change to get a functioning economy again.

For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

DISCLAIMER

Today, an assessment of the reasons behind the US' surgical removal of Venezuela's political leadership and what the fallout may be for oil and likely more importantly, geopolitically. We also bring the Iran situation into the conversation and note that it could prove a far bigger deal for oil and gas markets if sanctions are eventually lifted there. As well, we discuss the insane ramp in silver prices into year-end, the moves in FX and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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