Saxo Market Call

The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with recent weak Treasury auctions this week's auction could prove important. Finally, we discuss the different options investors have on the US yield curve depending on portfolio objectives, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming inflation report and how it could move the AUD, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and finally we discuss crops from soybean and wheat that are seeing weak prices due to stronger production from major suppliers, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

A lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provider Fresenius Medical Care has seen its share tumble as much as 24%. Finally, we go through the upcoming earnings on Friday from US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and next week's earnings from Tesla, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Especially Tesla earnings will be important for sentiment in equities and the latest price cuts may be a warning of weakening demand for electric vehicles, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

The US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have already come back higher again so the uptrend in bond yields remain intact. In today's episode we reiterate our call for staying in the short end of the yield curve or short-term high quality investment grade corporate bonds. Finally, we talk about the widening BTP-Bund spread and what it means for Italy and ECB rate policy, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

We are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the medium term outcome both across markets and geopolitics will come down to how Israel responses as the spotlight is pointing at Iran as a supporting actor in Hamas' planning. In any case, the weekend's attacks could be a defining moment for the Middle East region. Across equity themes we expect logistics, defence, and cyber security stocks to be bid. Today's podcast is not only about geopolitics and we do discuss the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the weak consumption figures coming out of China during the Golden week holiday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

We are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then we talk about the Birkenstock IPO scheduled for pricing on Tuesday and first day of trading on Wednesday. The valuation of Birkenstock has actually gone up since the roadshow started as investors are recognising the strong brand and the upside potential from direct-to-consumer. Finally, we talk about the first batch of Q3 earnings releases next week with a focus on PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and JPMorgan Chase, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world).  This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios.

Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more. 

The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook. 

We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo

In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand the dynamics of investing in bonds. Finally, we provide some example of credit bonds for those investors seeking high bond yields with short maturity and high credit quality, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo