Saxo Market Call

The latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn  -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WwUirs   -

Today we look at building tensions as US equities trade sideways at elevated levels for the cycle while US treasury yields rose once again to new highs since the March banking system turmoil. We wonder whether equity market investors are complacent on the risks of a liquidity pinch once the US debt ceiling issue is (presumably) resolved. We also take a look at Japanese and even Greek equities, two star-performing markets this year, the reaction to Zoom's earnings report, the upcoming RBNZ meeting, crude oil and gold and positioning and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q5bWGh   -

Today we discuss the collapse in the US debt ceiling talks on Friday, with little to guide us on what happens next, but with markets mostly in a complacent mood on the issue. We also look at China's partial ban on Chinese companies using US chip-maker Micron's products, upcoming earnings this week, including Nvidia, which has been bulled up on its links to powering the AI future. In commodities, the focus is on grains and other softs already seeing a possible impact from the shift to an El Nino climate pattern. Gold technicals also deserve a mention as higher us treasury yields pressure higher. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pWMzGU   -

Today is the second of our Saxo Market Call Listeners' Editions, prefaced with a brief market wrap from yesterday, which produced a strong rally extension in the US equity markets, supposedly on hopes that a debt ceiling deal is near, but also on benign economic data. With treasury yields also on the rise, it felt like the market expressing a belief in an improving economic outlook. On the debt ceiling issue, we caution that a solution could lead to a severe liquidity crunch as the US treasury rebuilds its reserves. The bulk of today's podcast is a look at listener questions from our survey last week. Stay tuned early next week for the next Saxo Market Call listener survey. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pJWL5o   -

Today we ask whether it is the 0DTE phenomenon (zero-days-to-expiry in S&P 500 in particular) that has dampened volatility so extraordinarily of late and how long this phenomenon can continue to bottle up the market. We also take a look at US Retail helping to shock the USD stronger and push metals lower again, with gold taking out 2,000/ounce. Stocks to watch include Target and Walmart for more on the US consumer. The earnings outlook supporting European equities (including from Siemens), crude oil, the risk of a leg of stronger US dollar and much more on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42Y5HSX   -

Today we highlight the enormous confusion and uncertainty in this market as elevated, but extremely rangebound markets are at odds with market pricing for an incoming recession and "the experts" have the most diverse set of opinions imaginable. Meanwhile, we get the latest extreme data points that don't provide any clarity: a wildly negative US May Empire Manufacturing survey after the strong April number and then a huge drop in UK payrolls in April that the market stumbled over and then largely ignored. Elsewhere we highlight stocks to watch, including Home Depot on its earnings release today and the debt ceiling meeting set for later today that will offer some insight on how sensitive the market is to that issue as we near the crunch time for US default risks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pIVWto   -

Today we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey, which showed the expectations component tanking badly while longer term inflation expectations suddenly ticked higher to their highest since 2011. Elsewhere, we note huge US credit growth as a possible sign of distress, the important macro data and earnings reports in the week ahead, the lack of a notable animal spirits in either direction in equities and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3O4VL5Y   -

In this first edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - we take a look at the many answers to our listener survey. Thanks very much to the Saxo Market Call community for the strong response. To address more of your questions, we have decided to make the survey a biweekly one, so we will follow up on more of your questions next week. We also have a brief market wrap at the end of today's pod, covering Google AI, copper breaking key support and sterling selling off on the Bank of England and more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42s3qj1   -

In today's podcast, we note the market's choppy, but in the end positive embrace of the slightly softer US CPI data point yesterday as US treasury yields eased. On that note, we suggest that a crisis is almost needed to justify the market's forward expectations for the Fed, as pricing of significant easing starting later this year intensified yesterday. Could the debt ceiling issue drive that possible crisis scenario? Elsewhere, we preview today's Bank of England meeting and wonder whether the recent sterling surge means this will drive a "sell-the-fact" moment, as seemingly everything that tries to get moving ends up mean reverting (former EUR strength now erased, former JPY weakness now partially erased, etc..) We also talk Disney's woeful streaming results and much more.  Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Responses to our new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey are pouring in. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content this Friday's podcast:  https://bit.ly/42jEiLg   -

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nM683M   -

In today's podcast, we note that, while today's US CPI release is the US data highlight of the week, that it is unlikely to drive a significant shift in forward Fed expectations unless there is a rather profound shock in the numbers (more likely on a hot number than a cooler one). Elsewhere, we talk Stanley Druckenmiller's imminent recession and "hard landing" call, the dire situation for US office REITS and dark clouds over Blackstone on the commercial real estate worries made worse by the recent bank turmoil, crude oil & grains, incoming earnings, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Please take the new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey: your weekly chance to provide feedback and drive the content of the Wednesday and Friday podcasts!  

Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NN4uK1   -

In today's podcast, we note that the market is scratching around for catalysts as we await US CPI data tomorrow and wonder whether it will even prove a catalyst. The most interesting news overnight was the surprising plunge in China's imports in April, further challenging the "re-opening" narrative. We also look at gold, stocks to watch today, the challenges for Sweden's financial system, earnings to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic