Saxo Market Call

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Saxo Market Call episodes

July 03With special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital
Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conversation.
Links
IBM IBM CEO interview we referenced on the podcast on the future of the AI rollout. There is also this newer one - probably a lot of overlap.
The Abraham Lincoln biography Peter Garnry referred by John Meacham.
and the John Kim book The Tao of Fund Raising.
The Gesda capital website.
John's latest FX Trader piece, including the impact of the US jobs data.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
40 min
July 02Meta announcement: just a warning shot or the actual pin prick?
Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening against JPY weakness, sterling is breaking higher and we have a US June jobs report today ahead of a three-day weekend for US markets. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Ole's awesome article on the sub-7 kg technical marvels used by Tour de France cyclists, and the commodities they contain.
Michael McNair TLDR piece on SiriusXM holdings and, among other things, why it might have large suitors for a takeover.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
21 min
July 01 Rocket Lab enters the space comms fray with Iridium grab. Also, USA at 250!
John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next.
Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confidence picture. Finally, a look at Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium as it enters directly into the space-based communications fray with the big boys SpaceX and Amazon. And, with the USA set to turn 250 years old this Friday, we note today's link of the day on the USA through a Wall Street lens as it turns 250 years old this Saturday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

20 min
June 30Leverage upon leverage, what could go wrong?
Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unless it surprises strongly today after the close. Some thoughts on macro, FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
FTAlphaville with coverage of the rising costs of equity financing on margin and concerns into today's quarter-end.
Bloomberg also with coverage of leverage and especially the hidden leverage as some combine margin lending with options buying, even on levered ETFs. What could go wrong?
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
19 min
June 29Flat Friday on the index surface, but bonkers beta underneath.
Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roasts with record high temperatures, will Europe's trade policy toward coal-burning China harden on climate grounds? As usual, macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
See Friday's John J. Hardy substack, in which I discussed the AI winners and losers on the very day when market internals went especially haywire along the fault lines of this theme.
A WSJ article suggests that one of China's latest AI models may match the ability to exploit cybersecurity vulnerabilities shown by Anthropic's Mythos.
FTAlphaville with an excellent article wondering whether the current AI revolution may echo some of the impacts on labor and capital that marked especially the early decades of the Indutrial revolution.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
23 min
June 26 Apple pays for the hubris. Samsung to bust out a quadrillion in cap-ex.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gave Apple the thumbs down for its greedy plan to make even more money from its customers due to higher input costs. Macro and FX and a busy event risk calendar next week and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
23 min
June 25Micron tries to revive AI hardware momo. Gold tests below 4,000.
Today, the blow-out Micron earnings report is doing all it can to revive the AI hardware momentum trade, and it will be interesting to see how the huge jump in Micron shares ages into the options expiry this Friday. Elsewhere, the US dollar has continued its rally, but will fresh drivers for further strength be hard to come by? A focus on sterling's upside potential on the potential Burnham political revolution unfolding as well. In commodities, we discuss the latest on crude oil and gold and especially silver getting into existential chart territory. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
John's The FX Trader piece on whether USD can find fresh fuel and special GBP focus.
Bloomberg piece on a hedge fund manager looking to short private equity in interesting ways
New York times piece on what kind of managers have demanded that their workers stop working from home.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
25 min
June 24The US dollar is having its cake and eating it too...for now.
Today, we look at the drivers of the stronger US dollar as it pulls to new highs for the year and what may be holding back USDJPY from participating in the greenback rally as those forty-year highs from 2024 approach. Elsewhere, yesterday's US equity market session was so far mostly only a one-off meltdown in high momentum stocks, with the median stock positive on the day. Massive interest and potential implications in how the market reacts to Micron earnings after the US equity market close today. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link
WSJ looks at China's attempt to "lure the world to the yuan" - and it's not just Iran and Russia that is taking the bait.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
34 min
June 23 Chips suddenly on tilt into Micron earnings Wednesday
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post - you won't want to miss today's links!
Today, a huge vibe shift overnight as Korean memory stocks come unglued Tuesday, sending US equity market futures into a tailspin. Is this just a bit of retrenchment ahead of Micron's earnings Wednesday after the close or is the market at risk of a bigger air-pocket? Elsewhere, the US dollar is breaking higher, but with USDJPY not participating at the moment on fears of intervention after Bessent-Katayama call. Also, some follow up thoughts on climate after yesterday's super El Niño / AMOC collapse discussion and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
25 min
June 22Likely Super El Niño building: a non-alarmist take on the risks
Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and even mining output could suffer significant disruptions. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the impacts for key equity supply chains, insurance and energy. This, a round-up of what to look for in the week ahead as the US dollar is in breakout mode and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Ole's recent thorough survey of the key commodities markets that could see an impact from El Niño
Ruben's recent piece look at El Niño risks from an equity sector angle, particularly the impact on supply chains.
As mentioned on today's pod that while the equatorial Pacific is heating up, there is a "cold blob" in the North Atlantic, possibly suggesting something is going wrong with the important AMOC, the critical Atlantic Ocean current system that keeps Europe warm, among other impacts. Craig Tindale made a few comments on the cold blob on X and also links to his longer form post on how we are modeling climate change poorly, not properly appreciating feedback loops that could accelerate our climate impacts. Here is a good, "popular science" look at the AMOC and the feedback loop risks if the Greenland ice melt threatens to shut it down.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
31 min

About Saxo Market Call

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For the aspirational trader and financial markets professional. Coming at you most trading days, the Saxo Market Call is the high frequency podcast for real-time analysis of the financial markets…