Saxo Market Call

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at last night's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's unwillingness to push back strongly against market expectations for the path of Fed policy and really unwillingness to provide any guidance beyond data dependence. This sparked a strong risk-on rally as the market indulged in a complacent forecast for the path of inflation and the path for rates - something we would push back against strongly. Upcoming earnings, US-China relations and more on the pod. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Plenty to talk about today as earnings season rages on, the natural gas emergency seems to get more dire by the day, and with a possible geopolitical storm brewing over US House leader Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan.  But most of all, the market will zero in on today's FOMC meeting, where the market is leaning for the Fed policy rate to peak within about six months and roll over rather aggressively next year - a rather pointed view relative to the Fed's own forecasts. How does Powell guide today relative to this pointed market view? John J. Hardy hosts.

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Today we look at a very complacent market as Russia dangles the sword of Damocles over the Eurozone in the form of threats to further sever the supply of natural gas deliveries. Other risks this week include the blitz of earnings reports set to pick up sharply today as Microsoft and Alphabet will report after Walmart stunned the market after hours yesterday with a weak forecast that gutted that stock and other large retailer names. We also discuss the risk that the market is expecting too significant a downward shift in Fed rate guidance even if it does deliver the 75 basis points . Guiding us through the technical situation across a number of assets in today's pod is technical analysis strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting.

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The podcast is finally back from holiday! Today we look at a huge week ahead for equities and rates as it is the busiest week for earnings reports of this season and as the Fed is set for its latest super-size hike even as the market pulls the peak Fed funds rate both forward and lower. We also look at rising recession concerns in both the US and Europe, the history of whether financial conditions are as important as the economic cycle in the market outlook, and much more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

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Yesterday's session was quite a spectacle with commodities plunging 5% as the USD saw massive breakout against the EUR as punitive energy prices in Europe were igniting recession fears once again. With bond yields following commodities lower equities flows went into overdrive with commodity stocks naturally trading lower but the session evolved to a massive buy the worst performers this year and sell the best performers. In that world all the 'junk' pockets of equities rallied on the signal from commodities that a recession could be coming. July is typically a low liquidity month so moves can easily be amplified so remember this before putting too much weight on yesterday's moves. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Bond yields are climbing together with global equities on the back of an upside surprise to inflation in South Korea and better than expected PMI figures out of China bolstering growth/inflation trades. RBA hiked 0.5% point taking the the cash rate to 1.35% lifting the AUD as the central bank is still aiming to cool the economy and inflation. We also talk about the natural gas situation in Europe, which is getting worse, and SAS filing for Chapter 11 in New York this morning after failing to strike a new deal with 1,000 pilots. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Recession fears are accelerating in markets pushing US yields down and Fed Funds futures are now pricing in an aggressive rate hike cycle until year-end before the Fed flips to cutting rates in 2023. Equities are responding positively in the short-term to lower interest rates but if a recession happens equities will continue to struggle. We also take a look at commodity markets and the negative signals about the economy that is coming from energy and industrial metals markets. Finally, we are talking about Tesla's Q2 deliveries declining q/q for the first time in two years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Today we look at commodities markets in the driver's seat as industrial metals prices resumed their nosedive, precious metals are trading near key levels, and crude oil sold off steeply, which in turn set the path lower for global yields. All of this is supportive of the Japanese yen, which spiked since late yesterday in the wake of a hot June Tokyo CPI release. We also review the equity market performance of the first half of 2022, note that financial conditions are tightening viciously, discuss Micron's very bad earnings report, the forward outlook for Q2 earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at gathering gloom again overnight in equity markets and steep correction in oil markets yesterday, in part on US demand figures and possibly on rising concern of the impact of a new Covid wave. That concern is already washing over travel stocks. We also discuss the remarkable regime shift in volatility behavior in this cycle, credit strains flashing red, stocks to watch, the fresh aggravation of EU natural gas prices, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at the US equity market ripping into reverse, in part on a massive slide in the expectations component of the US June Consumer Confidence survey, which has the market marking down Fed expectations slightly and finding safe havens in the US dollar and even treasuries, to a degree. We also look at crude oil not yet really fretting the demand destruction outlook, grains, stocks to watch for the rest of the week, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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