Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3qNOmdV   -

Today, we look at the extreme new divergences that have already developed in the US equity market over just the first two trading session of 2022, and focus attention on Ford's new 20-year share price high on enthusiasm for the prospects of its EV version of the F-150 truck as we ponder the overvaluation of the entire EV space relative and where the inevitable casualties will be found in the years ahead. In commodities, the focus is all on energy at the moment while the FX focus is dominated by the weak JPY and developments in safe haven yields. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ETxdon   

Today, we look at yesterday's surge in US long-term treasury yields and wonder whether this is narrative based and linked to worries clearing on the longer term impact of the omicron virus variant or whether it is a mechanical development due to huge shifts in funds related to the calendar roll into the New Year. Elsewhere, we look at new  highs in USDJPY on the US yield spike, key equity stories, upcoming earnings, gold and copper, soybeans, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3sSjDz2   -

Today, we look ahead to a year that is very unlikely to shape up like 2021 as pressing question on inflation and real growth await this market. We delve into interesting equities for the week ahead, especially Tesla and a few Chinese names, look at the road ahead for oil prices and natural  gas and breakdown the macro calendar for the week ahead, with Italian politics a key focus in January and the reaction to US data this week setting the tone as long US treasury yields remain stubbornly rangebound. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3eATigF   -

Today, a heartfelt thanks to our growing tribe of listeners, who have well over doubled in number this year. In today's final podcast of 2021, we look at the remarkable performance of the US equity market over the last year and the last three years, noting that the this has been the strongest three-year performance in over twenty years and what that says about the likely forward return profile. Also, a look at crude oil, gold, the year in soft commodities, FX perspectives, the macro calendar for the first week of 2022 and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3HigFYx   -

Today we look at the light positioning in crude oilmarkets ahead of the New Year, offering plenty of space for big moves next year, particularly if demand picks up. Also, a look at one measure of US dollar positioning that suggests bulls may have a hard time finding more fuel for an extension higher. We also cover the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, positioning in other commodity markets, other FX perspectives and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3HiNuoe   -

Today we put the year of 2021 in equities in perspective and question whether 2022 will bring a very different return profile. As well, we try to pick apart what the US yield curve is telling us about inflation or other areas of concern entirely, specifically that the Fed can only go so far before triggering the next panic that then requires that they ease. Specific equity stories, USDJPY seasonality, energy developments and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

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Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3puEoil   -

Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the market setup in the dying days of 2021 and the outlook for 2022, especially for the US market and fiscal dominance versus Fed irrelevance. We also ponder the risks for Europe, where the energy situation adds an extra layer of concern to a raft of other issues, even if recent sessions have brought a remarkable reversal in the EU power and natural gas prices. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pjqIXq   -

Equities are slightly off following yesterday's strong move higher driven by good news on the Omicron variant, Biden's confident remarks on making a deal with US Senator Joe Manchin, and then topped up overnight in China with Hang Seng equities pushing higher on strong remarks on stimulus towards the real estate sector from a local government; the comments were later pulled back. The positive sentiment is feeding into higher US interest rates, a stronger USD against most currencies and especially the JPY, with gold moving lower. We also talk about today's macro releases and two acquisition news impacting Maersk, LF Logistics, Aker BP and Lundin Energy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on "everything".

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Egc3jK   -

Markets are rebounding on yesterday's positive Moderna news that its vaccine provides good protection against the Omicron variant and the US Senator Joe Manchin said he might vote for Biden's Build Back Better deal in a revised version. However, with liquidity dropping towards the holiday period we put little weight on these moves. India had one of its most successful IPO today ending a string of recently bad ones providing some fresh positive sentiment to this equity market. The oil market is also responding well to the Moderna news rebounding together with equities and the long-term demand outlook looks solid. We also talk coffee prices, and earnings from Nike and Micron. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pcqTU9   -

It feels almost like December 2018 with the persistent weakness in the market, but this time market participants are not screaming policy mistake by the FOMC. Instead markets are reacting to the Covid-19 Omicron variant which is increasingly adding new restrictions to countries lowering economic activity in the services sector and adding to pressures on already fragile global supply chains. In today's podcast we talk about weakness in equities, China's housing market crisis and the PBOC's 5 bps rate cut, Europe's ongoing energy crisis as cold weather is expected, the Turkish Lira in free fall, and finally a bit of single stocks stories impacting green transformation stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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