Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZDl1sK   -

Today we look at US equity market that has gone over the edge technically and what could come next, given that we have crossed into a volatility event horizon that seems to almost guarantee either a further and accelerating swoon or an almost equally volatile market bounce. We also look into contributing factors that both aggravated the scale of the bull market off the pandemic low and why a sizable percentage of the gains since then are in mortal danger - especially due to the limitations of the physical world and the spiking price of energy, which policy makers can't so easily address as they can liquidity. Today's pod features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39R84xm  -

Today we have a look at bond yields cooling and risk appetite stabilizing and even improving, but with a new injection of energy from the currency market, where a big US dollar breakout is on the loose as key resistance levels gave way and EURUSD pounded down to its lowest levels in well over a year. A strong dollar is a potential new cause for concern if it persists. Elsewhere, we look at real yields rising in sympathy with the latest moves in Treasuries, cratering silver prices as gold hold comparatively firm, possible early signs of a corporate credit wobble, fresh spike in European NatGas prices and now cotton prices spiking and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Wl1c8j   -

We have no idea where markets are headed, but yesterday saw a new capitulation of sorts in equity markets, particularly for interest rate sensitive stocks, which underperformed a broadly sold market. Key technical levels are dead ahead in the US S&P 500, including the pivot low of the prior sell-off and the 100-day moving average, while we ponder the contributors to this sell-off, spiking yields and especially energy prices, which actually cooled yesterday in the case of crude oil. We also look at the currency market heating up in sympathy with volatile equity markets, gold showing some degree of resilience while sterling was in for a heavy beating, and in equities, we zoom in on Micron and ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3idjgco   -

Today we discuss whether the global energy crunch issue, after another day with massive rises in natural gas prices and Brent crude crossing the 80 dollar/barrel threshold, is set to administer a "Eureka moment" to markets and trigger a run for cover. An additional issue that could pressure risky asset valuations is the recent sharp rise in global yields, with US yields leading the way. A look at natural gas, new highs in cotton prices, the US treasury yield levels and an incoming auction today, Polestar going public and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uhmfp6   -

Today we look at the latest advance in US equities despite ongoing concerns centered on energy prices and the critical focus this week: the fate of Biden's cornerstone fiscal stimulus initiatives and the onrushing debt ceiling issue as the US government's financial year ends this Thursday. We also have the breakout higher in US long yields to consider this week, with key US and EU inflation. We also have a look at the results of the German election and implications for the formation of a government there, a possible shift in the drivers for precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3o7gdGi   -

Today features Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the huge spike in longer US treasury yields yesterday and sympathetic moves in EU and UK yields and at what point rising long yields might disrupt an equity market on the comeback trail. We also look at next week's main events, namely a pivotal German election and all that is at stake there, while also pondering the difficult path to additional US fiscal stimulus and this year's iteration of the old debt ceiling issue. Today's pod also features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2W45MYu   - 

Today we break down where the FOMC meeting - and really Fed Chair Powell's press conference more specifically - surprised modestly on the hawkish side, but why the market reaction was relatively limited as focus seems elsewhere now, especially on China's Evergrande. Still, the market bulls will have to overcome pivotal resistance in the US equity market that was the support on the way down. We also look at today's Bank of England meeting and why sterling has ignored the recent ramp-up in short UK yields, precious metals and crude oil, equity themes, Nike ahead of today's earnings report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2VZ5HVU   -

Today we look back at another ugly US session yesterday as a comeback attempt was erase, although sentiment has improved in Asia slightly, in part on somewhat confusing Evergrande news. We also cover the latest developments in energy and industrial metals, whether the FOMC even really matters for this market with so many other irons in the fire, FedEx and Adobe results and the challenges for  companies operating in the physical world due to challenges with supply chains and labour and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3kssMK9   -

Today we breakdown yesterday's capitulation extension after key support failed, while noting the interesting technical levels where support came in for the US market as the market rebounded strongly yesterday in late trading, as well as where the resistance levels are for judging whether we can reverse the slide or face follow-up selling. We also delve into the ongoing natural gas debacle, including risks of collateral damage in other industries and corporate credit, break down the next earnings reports of interest, key central bank meetings on the calendar, including tomorrow's FOMC and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zubUqt   -

Today we look at the US equity market having now broken the massive trend support that otherwise fed the success of the buy-the-dip mentality for most of this year. Interesting and potentially aggravating external factors this time around that risk driving the most significant correction this year include the risk of a new debt ceiling debacle, US treasuries not providing a safe haven, the FOMC meeting this Wednesday and possibly even concern centered on China's property sector. We also delve into key commodity stories, preview earnings and the busy macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic