Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3kdNOuL   -

Article link discussed in this podcast on market sell-off risks: https://bit.ly/3z3ZWVn   -

Today we look at an attempt by the US market to post a recovery yesterday after an extension of the sell-off, but how we continue to see a number of divergences within the market, as well as a backdrop in which an increasing number of key cyclical assets are not only rolling over, but showing aggressive downside momentum, all of this aggravated, if not driven, by a very strong US dollar. This leads us to upgrade the risk that we are set for a significant market setback in coming weeks, something that might actually be healthy for the broader and extremely extended bull market. A look at recent commodity performance, FX lining up in risk-on, risk-off fashion, an interesting new vertical farming stock and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3xVjMR7   -

Yesterday's market rout deepened the recent rut in global markets, with the timing making it a bit difficult to call this a taper tantrum, as the selling was most intense at the end of yesterday's trading session in New York, not around the time of the release of the FOMC minutes, although these do show a clear intent to begin tapering before year end. We look at the odd internals amidst the sell-off, the sympathetic sell-off in commodities, the takeaway for treasuries from the FOMC, perspectives on inflation-linked treasuries globally as well as the USD reaction and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:   https://bit.ly/3gbBCJU   -

Today we look at the most volatile US equity market session in weeks and whether risk sentiment is deteriorating, in part on concerns linked to China's policy agenda of fighting inequality. Also, a look at copper trading down at pivotal levels, cotton gunning at a huge resistance level, the RBNZ's holding back from hiking rates but providing hawkish guidance. In equities, we look at the impact and implications of new headlines on the policy focus in China and preview Nvidia and other earnings. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3sB2Kad    -

Today we look across asset classes as the Nasdaq 100 stubbornly refuses to post new all-time highs, Asia frets the ongoing Covid impact - in New Zealand on the first new "community" case in six months that is triggering a nation-wide shutdown the day before an expected first rate hike of the cycle for the RBNZ, and in China on port shutdowns. Also, a look at key earnings reports for today, US and EU fixed income, Europe desperately short of gas, wheat prices spiking and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2VXVUj0   - 

Today we look at the week ahead as the earnings calendar remains busy, especially for interesting Chinese names. We also look at the potential impact of the ongoing delta variant surge and its impact, especially heavy on US sentiment as seen in Friday's preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading. A preview of the RBNZ decision this week and a fairly busy macro calendar for the week and much more on the pod. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/37Eu79x   -

Global equities are increasingly throwing away worries over the delta variant and inflation with the S&P 500 and European equities hitting new all-time highs yesterday and most likely again today. However, valuations are getting stretched and we would not be surprised if equities experienced a mild correction before year-end. In today's podcast we also take a look at agricultural prices with wheat moving higher and yesterday's partially shutdown of one of China's largest ports. Finally, we go through Airbnb earnings and next week's earnings. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3s84MOK   -

Yesterday's US CPI report for July failed to be the big market event although in the subcomponents of the CPI report there were clues about elevated rent prices which could be the next catalyst for higher inflation than what many market participants expect. We talk about technology stocks underperforming the rest of the market over the past week and comment on strong Q2 earnings from Foxconn and NIO's earnings from yesterday. On commodities we touch on the situation in oil markets with the latest comment from the White House asking OPEC+ to raise production to ease US gasoline prices. Finally, we round off with today's important macro releases and the earnings to watch. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/37B1hHc   -

Today we talk about this week's biggest event which is today's US CPI report for July which could become a game changer for the market if it shows that inflation is accelerating or remain more sticky than expected. This could extend the rally higher in US yields and strengthen the USD and potentially hurt technology stocks short-term. We also touch on earnings from Vestas and Unity, and commodities such as oil and copper. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/3fO52gR   -

Today we talk about equities treading water ahead of tomorrow's important US CPI figures that will show whether inflation is more sticky than earlier expected by the market. The US 10-year yield is holding the line above the 1.31% level and gold has stabilised after its turbulent start to the week yesterday. We also talk rising European electricity prices and coal consumption and the newly released UN climate report. On earnings we talk about yesterday's earnings from Barrick Gold and BioNTech, and touches a bit on today's earnings from SoftBank Group showing that the large Japanese technology investors have ended its investments in Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, and Alphabet. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: bit.ly/2VGOmkg   -

Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday surprised the market given the weak lead in from ADP on Wednesday. US interest rates shot higher denting US technology stocks while the broader market measured by the S&P 500 crushed higher. In other words, the value vs growth bet and interest rate sensitivity are back in town. Gold was knocked over by the jobs report closing lower on Friday and with thin liquidity in Asia and nervous gold traders the spot experienced a flash crash and a decline of 4.2% over little more than an hour. In today's podcast we also talk about this week's important US CPI report on Wednesday which together with the jobs report could make Jackson Hole later this month a pivotal moment in the post pandemic world. On today's podcast are Ole S. Hansen on commodities and hosting Peter Garnry on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic