School of War

Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the  What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins us to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade?

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Times

02:45 A regular day

07:51 Shipping lanes

11:48 In the Persian Gulf

19:13 What is actually happening?

27:00 Opening the Strait 

32:30 Strategic costs 

38:05 Keeping things moving

44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas

48:32 Ghost fleets

53:13 Other chokepoints

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, join the show to breakdown the dramatic events of the weekend and take a look at the road ahead in the Iran War. We discuss the American F-15E shot down in Iran, and the subsequent rescue of its crew by special operations forces near Isfahan. The conversation delves into the details of the rescue operation, President Trump's demands regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential actions the United States might take if Iran does not comply. 

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Times

03:00 Rescue

12:47 Potential nuclear raid sites

15:28 President’s deal terms

26:50 Targets and regime change

35:32 Ground options

38:28 Information gaps and what comes next

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran.

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Times

02:03 Trump’s speech  

05:22 Escalation      

10:10 Goals 

12:25 Risk and scale

15:15 Kinds of surprise

17:37 Misreading the Iranians 

22:10 15 Points

25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 

29:24 Branding 

32:44 Oil 

37:15 Kharg Island

41:35 Regime alteration  

44:20 Time and resources

48:49 Balance

50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right

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Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth?

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Times

01:45 No path out  

04:13 Maintaining balance     

10:18 Kasserine lessons

16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone

22:53 More stockpiling 

27:33 Invasion

34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 

39:20 An economic and political problem 

46:42 The Summit

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John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? 

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Times

03:25 Targeting as strategy  

10:40 Neurological strike     

20:16 An evolution in military affairs

26:30 Adaptation 

30:48 Center of gravity

39:37 The missile program

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, break down what’s really happening behind the headlines — from covert strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to the fragile possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. How are the U.S., Israel, and Iran navigating the negotiations, and are there any operational knock-on effects? What are the realities and complexities of potential ground invasions, targeted raids, and covert operations that could shape the next phase of conflict? What are the risks of seizing Kharg Island or launching strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities?  How does the Iranian regime’s use of civilian infrastructure complicate precise strikes, and how do intelligence gaps and political signals influence U.S. decisions? What is the strategic significance of Kharg Island, what are the challenges of amphibious operations along Iran’s long coastline, and what are the odds of a ground campaign in the coming weeks? 

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Times

02:42 Negotiations 

09:17 U.S. options     

15:35 Ground forces

18:53 M.E.U

25:35 Kharg Island

37:53 Silence on the nuclear program

45:13 JSOC

53:02 Acting with speed

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Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China?

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Times

02:49 Gallipoli

11:08 Unintended consequences     

18:10 Ukraine

26:22 A failure of perception

31:36 The right call by Trump? 

37:34 Regime alteration

47:05 Timeframes

53:33 China

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Zineb Riboua, research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and
Security in the Middle East, joins the show to talk about the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, focusing on China's interests and involvement. How dependent is China on the region's energy resources? How does China project power in the Middle East and in Africa? Is China benefiting or suffering from the current war? What are the geopolitical and strategic considerations for both Beijing and D.C.?

Times
02:19 Going badly for China
06:24 Specific military goals
07:47 China & the Middle East
12:44 Iranian Oil
15:34 Layers
18:12 Trump and Xi
22:54 Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz
26:46 Best case/worst case scenarios
29:42 Russia and Africa
33:36 Strategic revenge

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Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty, joins the show to talk about the origins, evolution, and possible future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What forces produced the 1979 revolution, and how did it reshape Iran’s political and religious order? What are the psychological and sociological impacts of this revolution? How have the regime’s leaders interpreted and sustained the revolutionary project, and what have the major challenges been? As Iran enters a new and uncertain phase under Mojtaba Khamenei, can the Islamic Republic endure, or is there a potential for future revolution in Iran?

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Times

02:07 Living through the Islamic Revolution

04:12 A diverse Iran     

05:50 How did the revolution succeed? 

14:06 Khomeini & Khamenei

20:46 Too cautious 

22:35 Dynastic succession  

34:00 Iran vs. Venezuela

38:35 Regime resiliency 

44:30 Beginning of the end  

50:14 Threshold states

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Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, joins the show to provide in-depth analysis of the Iran conflict. Mark gives his thoughts on naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, including their strategic implications for the progress of the war. He also discusses drone warfare, missile defense, and the broader geopolitical context. Mark also explains how Ukraine and Russia are playing growing parts in the war.

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Times

02:30 A constant menace

07:34 Radar and THAAD     

11:06 Hormuz

20:26 Real deterrence 

31:36 Russian targeting 

38:38 Conservation of resources  

46:03 Life at sea

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